Panama

Snapshot · 2026-06-11Model 1.0.0

CONCACAF·Groep L·FIFA #30

Knockout contender

Transition-heavy side.

Rivaal: England (#4)
Sleutel: Alfredo Stephens (FW)

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Final squad announced · Panama · 2026-05-26

Source: heavy.com ↗

Toernooivooruitzicht

Analysis

Panama carry a <0.1% probability of winning the tournament (39th of 48). Eric Davis — 35 at kickoff with 104 caps — probably his final world cup. Drawn in Group L alongside England, Croatia, Ghana, they are projected at 43.1% to advance to the knockout stage.

How they play

Panama under Thomas Christiansen play a transition heavy game with 46% possession. They apply moderate pressing intensity (PPDA 21.2). They are selective in their shooting (10.0 per 90).

Path to success

In Group L alongside England, Croatia, Ghana, Panama are projected at 43.1% to advance from the group stage. A competitive group-stage showing — taking points off higher-ranked opponents — would mark a successful campaign. The expanded 48-team format gives smaller federations more runway, and upsets in the group stage are a fixture of every World Cup.

What they must execute

Panama rely on defensive discipline and quick transitions — absorbing pressure and converting turnovers into attacking chances. Concentration and defensive organisation for full 90-minute stretches will determine whether the approach holds against top opposition. Managing minutes for Eric Davis across what could be seven matches will test the coaching staff's rotation planning.

Controversial take

The model's assessment of Panama broadly aligns with their FIFA ranking — no major disagreement between the two systems for this squad.

Key numbers

<0.1%Win probability39th in field

1737Elo ratingRanked 36th globally

0.080xG per shotbottom quartile (39th of 48)

14.0%Tournament goal probability — Alfredo StephensTop projected scorer in the squad (FW)

6.4 yearsManager tenureThomas Christiansen

43.1%Group stage advance probabilityGroup L

How they play

Style vs the 48-team field

Transition-heavy · style profile from 7 recent matches

Press

21.2

Build-up

6.2

Directness

7.3

Width (proxy)

386.4

Tempo

8.5

Set-piece relianceno data

What to watch: a narrow, central attacking shape (crossing proxy).

Percentiles position Panama against the 48-team field — higher means more of that trait, not better or worse. Press is inverted (lower PPDA = higher press); width uses crossing rate as a proxy; tempo is open-play passes per minute of possession. Descriptive style analytics; does not feed the published probabilities.

Group L finish · Panama

Monte Carlo, 50,000 sims

Top two advance to the round of 32; best 8 of 12 third-placed teams also qualify.

1st (group winner)
Advances to R32
3.2%
2nd (runner-up)
Advances to R32
13.8%
3rd
Advances only if among the best 8 of 12 third-placed teams
45.4%
4th
Eliminated
37.6%

Stage progression · Panama

, 50,000 sims

44.3%AdvAdvance from group
7.9%R16Round of 16
1.9%QFQuarter-final
0.4%SFSemi-final
0.1%FFinal
<0.1%WinWin the tournament

Likely knockout path · Panama

Monte Carlo, 10,000 sims

Most frequent opponents per round, conditional on reaching it.

R32

Round of 32

Portugal41%

Colombia38%

Uzbekistan11%

R16

Round of 16

Spain22%

Switzerland14%

Canada10%

Quarter-final

Argentina26%

Belgium10%

Spain8%

Semi-final

France10%

Brazil9%

Morocco9%

Final

Argentina15%

Germany15%

Colombia8%

CalibrationBacktested to a 0.572 Brier score across 987 out-of-sample major-tournament matches (2014–2024): lower is better, and a no-skill 1-in-3 guess scores 0.667. In plain terms, outcomes the model rated 70% likely happened about 70% of the time. Live scoring begins 2026-06-11. See the scoreboard →

De selectie

Confirmed squad

Model-predicted · snapshot 2026-05-28

Roster confirmed by the federation's official squad announcement. The XI/bench split below is the model's composite-rating ordering, not the head coach's lineup.

Goalkeepers (1)

PlayerStat

Luis MejíaCaps-drivenNacional

56c—0.28

Defenders (4)

PlayerStat

Amir MurilloCaps-driven↗Beşiktaş

91c—0.72

Fidel EscobarCaps-driven↗Saprissa

96c—0.14

Andrés AndradeCaps-driven↗LASK

47c—0.49

Eric DavisCaps-driven↗Plaza Amador

104c—0.02

Midfielders (3)

PlayerStat

Adalberto CarrasquillaCaps-driven↗UNAM

73c11assists0.58

José Luis RodríguezCaps-driven↗Juárez

67c5assists0.35

Yoel BárcenasCaps-driven↗Unattached

101c11assists0.31

Forwards (3)

PlayerStat

José FajardoCaps-driven→Universidad Católica

65c17goals0.31

Ismael DíazCaps-drivenLeón

54c17goals0.31

Cecilio WatermanCaps-drivenUniversidad de Concepción

52c14goals0.11

Bench

★ likely first sub badge on the top-3 by first-sub score within each position group, plus a late-game impact rating where club per-90 stats are available.

Goalkeepers (2)

PlayerStat

Orlando MosqueraCaps-driven↗Al-Fayha★ Likely first sub

46c—0.25

César SamudioCaps-drivenMarathón★ Likely first sub

4c—0.00

Defenders (6)

PlayerStat

César BlackmanCaps-drivenSlovan Bratislava★ Likely first sub

37c—0.49

José CórdobaNorwich City★ Likely first sub

30c—0.65

Roderick MillerCaps-driven↗Turan Tovuz

48c—0.00

Jiovany RamosCaps-drivenPuerto Cabello★ Likely first sub

20c—0.11

Jorge GutiérrezCaps-drivenDeportivo La Guaira

17c—0.13

Edgardo FariñaCaps-drivenPari Nizhny Novgorod

15c—0.00

Midfielders (6)

PlayerStat

Cristian MartínezCaps-driven→Ironi Kiryat Shmona★ Likely first sub

63c10assists0.22

Aníbal GodoyCaps-driven→San Diego

159c5assists0.05

Alberto QuinteroCaps-driven↘Plaza Amador

140c16assists0.01

César YanisCaps-drivenCobresal★ Likely first sub

55c6assists0.07

Carlos HarveyRecoveringCaps-drivenMinnesota United★ Likely first sub

25c1assists0.13

Azarias LondoñoCaps-drivenUniversidad Católica

10c3assists0.04

Forwards (1)

PlayerStat

Tomás RodríguezCaps-drivenSaprissa★ Likely first sub

11c3goals0.15

▸How to read this squad— 4 columns explained

Pos: Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
Caps: Senior international appearances. Used by the model as a recency-weighted signal of how often the manager calls the player up.
Stat: Position-aware stat: career international goals for forwards; career international assists for midfielders (Transfermarkt); latest available Big-5 club season's total tackles for defenders (FBref); latest available Big-5 club season's save percentage for goalkeepers (FBref). Em-dash when no data is joined — most often for defenders and keepers at non-Big-5 clubs.
Rating: Composite rating (Model #4) — combines recent caps + goals, recent club xG and xAG per 90, position-relative quality, and call-up priors. Higher = the model thinks the player is more likely to start. Typically 0.9 (depth) to 2.5 (elite).

★ Likely first sub — the bench player the model rates most likely to be the first substitute for their position. Computed from a first-sub score (cap-recency + impact rating); ties broken by Rating.

Selection driver — coloured chips show which input dominates a player's selection score. Caps-driven = selected mainly on international experience. Rating-driven = selected mainly on club performance quality. Jersey-boosted = jersey number from a recent squad snapshot lifted their score. Goals-driven = international goal record was the decisive factor. No chip when the score is a balanced blend.

Squad cohesion

Projected XI · club overlap

No club-minutes rows on file for any of the projected XI — this team draws its squad from leagues outside our coverage (Big-5 + understat). Cohesion can't be quantified here until additional league data is wired in.

Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →

Squad depth

Projected XI · replaceability

Most irreplaceable starters

Adalberto CarrasquillaCentral midfieldLikely cover: no natural backupreplacement-level CM ~0.280.30gap to repl.
José Luis RodríguezWingerLikely cover: César Yanis · 0.07Cobresal0.28gap to repl.
Ismael DíazWingerLikely cover: César Yanis · 0.07Cobresal0.25gap to repl.

Gap to repl. = how far this nation's rating at the position falls from the starter to his likely in-squad replacement (named above). Larger = harder to replace.

Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →

Groepsschema

Group-stage schedule

MD	Date	Opponent	Venue
1	Jun 17, 2026	Ghana	Toronto, Canada
2	Jun 23, 2026	Croatia	Toronto, Canada
3	Jun 27, 2026	England	East Rutherford, United States

Onderlinge confrontaties

Verwachte doelpuntenmakers Panama →

Verhaallijnen

Storylines

Updated 14 days ago

League pedigree

Only 0 of 25 predicted-squad players played in a top-5 European league last season — the rest play home or in non-top-5 leagues.

From the spot

Converted only 3 of 5 career penalties (60%) — a wasteful record from the spot in knockouts.

TouchlineThomas Christiansen

First World Cup as head coach, appointed 2020.

Last danceEric Davis

35 at kickoff with 104 caps — probably his final World Cup.

Vorm en trackrecord

Statistical profile

Transition Heavy

Attack

Attack rating0.4636th/48

Shots per match10.040th/48

Chance quality0.08039th/48

Defence

Defence rating0.347th/48

Goalkeeper rating0.4740th/48

GK: Luis Mejía

Set pieces

Penalty conversion72.0%34th/48

Penalty save rate20.0%41st/48

Style

Possession46.1%34th/48

Press intensity21.222nd/48

Directness7.39th/48

Crossing volume386.433rd/48

Long ball volume36.616th/48

Build-up length6.222nd/48

Squad

Avg. minutes per starter2246th/48

Club familiarity0.00039th/48

Workload class: low

Attack and defence ratings from the model; style metrics from recent international matches; penalty rates via Bayesian estimation; goalkeeper rating from shot-prevention data. Rank is out of 48 tournament teams.

Where goals come from

Phase of play · scored & conceded

Scored7 goals · 74 shots

Conceded21 goals · 81 shots

Open play
Set piece
Counter
Penalty

Share of goals by how the chance began, across 7 matches (CopaAmerica2024,WC2018). Shoot-out kicks are excluded. Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →

Group-stage matchups

vs Ghana

Win46.6%

Draw27.1%

Loss26.3%

Expected goals for1.04

Expected goals against1.18

Likeliest score1-1 (13.9%)

Both teams score45.6%

Clean sheet30.6%

Full fixture analysis →

vs Croatia

Win14.0%

Draw21.7%

Loss64.3%

Expected goals for0.64

Expected goals against2.21

Likeliest score2-0 (14.1%)

Both teams score42.6%

Clean sheet10.9%

Full fixture analysis →

vs England

Win6.6%

Draw18.2%

Loss75.1%

Expected goals for0.45

Expected goals against2.63

Likeliest score2-0 (16.0%)

Both teams score33.6%

Clean sheet7.2%

Full fixture analysis →

Probabilities from the calibrated ensemble model. xG from the Dixon–Coles fit. See each fixture page for full analysis.

Rating & probability history

10 snapshots · 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-10

Each point is one model build. The shaded band is the bootstrap 90% credible interval around the tournament-winner probability.

Recent form (10 matches)

Record4W · 5D · 1L

Goals13–8

Form

Date	Opponent	Score	Result	Competition
2026-03-31	ASouth Africa	2–1	W	Friendly
2026-03-27	ASouth Africa	1–1	D	Friendly
2026-01-22	HMexico	0–1	L	Friendly
2026-01-18	ABolivia	1–1	D	Friendly
2025-11-18	HEl Salvador	3–0	W	FIFA World Cup qualification
2025-11-13	AGuatemala	3–2	W	FIFA World Cup qualification
2025-10-14	HSuriname	1–1	D	FIFA World Cup qualification
2025-10-10	AEl Salvador	1–0	W	FIFA World Cup qualification
2025-09-08	HGuatemala	1–1	D	FIFA World Cup qualification
2025-09-04	ASuriname	0–0	D	FIFA World Cup qualification

martj42 international results (CC0) · last 10 matches · ~2 years.

Head-to-head vs group opponents

Opponent	Meetings	W-D-L	Last meeting
England	1	0-0-1	2018 — Loss (1–6) · FIFA World Cup
Croatia	0	—	No prior meetings
Ghana	0	—	No prior meetings

All meetings via the martj42 international results dataset.

Major tournaments — most recent appearance

Tournament	Year	Finish	W-D-L	Since then
Gold Cup	2025	Quarter-finals	3-1-0	Same head coach (Thomas Christiansen) since 2020 33/33 of current pool (100%) were active that year
Copa América	2024	Quarter-finals	2-0-2	Same head coach (Thomas Christiansen) since 2020 22/33 of current pool (67%) were active that year
FIFA World Cup	2018	Group stage	0-0-3	New head coach since then — now Thomas Christiansen (appointed 2020) 13/33 of current pool (39%) were active that year

Source: FIFA archives. Penalty outcomes resolved to W/L.

Most similar past team-tournaments

Closest comparable teams from past major tournaments (1990-2024), by squad strength, group draw, and recent form. Shown for context, not a prediction.

United States · World Cup 1998
Exited at the group stage
Comparable pre-tournament strength (Elo 1771) and group draw.
Mexico · Copa América 1997
Finished third
Canada · Copa América 2024
Finished third

Toernooivooruitzicht

Analysis

How they play

Path to success

What they must execute

Controversial take

Key numbers

How they play

Group L finish · Panama?

Stage progression · Panama?

Likely knockout path · Panama

De selectie

Confirmed squad?

Squad cohesion

Squad depth

Most irreplaceable starters

Groepsschema

Group-stage schedule

Onderlinge confrontaties

Verhaallijnen

Vorm en trackrecord

Statistical profile

Attack

Defence

Set pieces

Style

Squad

Where goals come from

Group-stage matchups

Rating & probability history

Recent form (10 matches)

Head-to-head vs group opponents

Major tournaments — most recent appearance

Most similar past team-tournaments

Group L finish · Panama

Stage progression · Panama

Confirmed squad