Voorspelling versus resultaat · Group A · Matchday 1
Mexico vs South Africa
2026-06-11
Post-match calibration
Pre-match probability vs realised outcome
- Mexico win· realised59.5%
- Draw27.2%
- South Africa win13.4%
Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.
Key moments
J. Quinones (Mexico)
E. Lira
Y. Sithole (South Africa)
Tripping
R. Jimenez (Mexico)
R. Alvarado
T. Zwane (South Africa)
Elbowing
C. Montes (Mexico)
Tripping
Match statistics
Scoreline prediction
The actual scoreline (2–0) was the model's #4 most likely outcome at 11.0%.
Team performance
The team secured a comfortable 2-0 victory, demonstrating effective finishing and strong defensive organisation.
The team displayed poor attacking output and defensive vulnerabilities, suggesting a significant dip in current form.
Video analysis: player performance
Per-player ratings and event breakdowns from official highlights analysis. Tap a player to see their full match timeline.
9Julián Quiñones6'–8'Scored two crucial goals for Mexico with a close-range finish and a rebound, and was active in creating further opportunities.
2goals▼
Scored two crucial goals for Mexico with a close-range finish and a rebound, and was active in creating further opportunities.
Match timeline
9Raúl Jiménez36'–67'Scored two goals for Mexico, including a header and a composed finish, significantly extending his team's lead.
2goals▼
Scored two goals for Mexico, including a header and a composed finish, significantly extending his team's lead.
Match timeline
7Modiba40'–40'Registered South Africa's only notable shot on target with a long-range effort that required a save from the Mexico goalkeeper.
1shots1on target▼
Registered South Africa's only notable shot on target with a long-range effort that required a save from the Mexico goalkeeper.
Match timeline
Match observations
- The match between Mexico and South Africa was preceded by an elaborate opening ceremony, featuring national flags and mascots on the pitch.
- The stadium was filled with enthusiastic supporters, creating a vibrant atmosphere with confetti falling throughout the event.
- Mexico secured a 2-0 victory over South Africa, with goals registered in the 8th and 67th minutes.