Pre-match projection. Probabilities are frozen approximately 6 hours before kickoff to provide a stable pre-match reference.

Group A · Matchday 3

MexicovsCzech Republic

·19:00 local

Snapshot · 2026-05-28Selectie Mexico →Selectie Czech Republic →Live tracker →Onderlinge confrontatie →

Onderlinge geschiedenis

Date	Competition	Venue	Score	Result	xG
8 Feb 2000	Lunar New Year Cup	NSo Kon Po	1–2	L	—

Mexico vs Czech Republic, every senior international meeting in the martj42 results dataset (score from Mexico's perspective; H/A/N = home/away/neutral).

Latest news & match context

Team news

World Cup Daily: Finally, the biggest tournament ever is about to begin with Mexico vs. SA · ESPN · 11 Jun
Czech Republic or Czechia? The name used at the 2026 World Cup explained · Diario AS · 11 Jun
World Cup predictions: Mexico vs South Africa, South Korea vs Czech Republic on matchday 1 · The New York Times · 11 Jun

Match conditions

Stage:: Group A · Matchday 3

Both teams enter this fixture with several squad members facing fitness doubts. Unlock the full breakdown of potential absences and their impact with a Pass.

Match-outcome probability

Mexico win
47.3%
Draw
27.3%
Czech Republic win
25.4%

CalibrationBacktested to a 0.572 Brier score across 987 out-of-sample major-tournament matches (2014–2024): lower is better, and a no-skill 1-in-3 guess scores 0.667. In plain terms, outcomes the model rated 70% likely happened about 70% of the time. Live scoring begins 2026-06-11. See the scoreboard →

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That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.

The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.

Scoreline distribution

Half-time / full-time

Four models compared

Most likely scorers

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See exactly how Mexico v Czech Republic plays out

The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.

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