South Korea

Snapshot · 2026-06-11Model 1.0.0

AFC·Groep A·FIFA #22

R16 contender

Counter-attacking side.

Recente formatie: 4-2-3-1 (2 van 4)

Rivaal: Mexico (#15)
Sleutel: Son Heung-min (FW)

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Toernooivooruitzicht

Analysis

South Korea carry a 0.2% probability of winning the tournament (25th of 48). Kim Seung-gyu — 35 at kickoff with 85 caps — probably his final world cup. Drawn in Group A alongside Mexico, South Africa, Czech Republic, they are projected at 75.9% to advance to the knockout stage.

How they play

South Korea under Hong Myung-bo play a counter attacker game, with just 44% possession — among the lowest in the field. Their likely shape is a 4-2-3-1, though they have also used 4-3-3 and 4-4-2. They apply moderate pressing intensity (PPDA 25.0).

Path to success

In Group A alongside Mexico, South Africa, Czech Republic, South Korea are projected at 75.9% to advance from the group stage. Qualification to the knockout rounds is the primary target. The round of 32 probability sits at 33.4%. The expanded 48-team format gives smaller federations more runway, and upsets in the group stage are a fixture of every World Cup.

What they must execute

South Korea rely on defensive discipline and quick transitions — absorbing pressure and converting turnovers into attacking chances. Concentration and defensive organisation for full 90-minute stretches will determine whether the approach holds against top opposition. Managing minutes for Kim Seung-gyu across what could be seven matches will test the coaching staff's rotation planning.

Controversial take

The model's assessment of South Korea broadly aligns with their FIFA ranking — no major disagreement between the two systems for this squad.

Key numbers

0.2%Win probability25th in field

1752Elo ratingRanked 33rd globally

4-2-3-1Predicted formationFrom 4 observed matches

44%Possession sharebottom quartile (42nd of 48)

41.5%Tournament goal probability — Son Heung-minTop projected scorer in the squad (FW)

2.4 yearsManager tenureHong Myung-bo — 2 World Cups as coach

How they play

Style vs the 48-team field

Counter-attacking · style profile from 7 recent matches

Press

Build-up

6.1

Directness

7.1

Width (proxy)

398.3

Tempo

9.1

Set-piece reliance

12.6

What to watch: a more passive press, sitting off the ball.

Percentiles position South Korea against the 48-team field — higher means more of that trait, not better or worse. Press is inverted (lower PPDA = higher press); width uses crossing rate as a proxy; tempo is open-play passes per minute of possession. Descriptive style analytics; does not feed the published probabilities.

Group A finish · South Korea

Monte Carlo, 50,000 sims

Top two advance to the round of 32; best 8 of 12 third-placed teams also qualify.

1st (group winner)
Advances to R32
19.1%
2nd (runner-up)
Advances to R32
32.1%
3rd
Advances only if among the best 8 of 12 third-placed teams
31.6%
4th
Eliminated
17.1%

Stage progression · South Korea

, 50,000 sims

74.1%AdvAdvance from group
33.6%R16Round of 16
11.6%QFQuarter-final
2.9%SFSemi-final
0.8%FFinal
0.2%WinWin the tournament

Likely knockout path · South Korea

Monte Carlo, 10,000 sims

Most frequent opponents per round, conditional on reaching it.

R32

Round of 32

Canada18%

Switzerland16%

Belgium16%

R16

Round of 16

Netherlands14%

England13%

Morocco11%

Quarter-final

France15%

Spain14%

Germany11%

Semi-final

Spain16%

Argentina12%

France8%

Final

Argentina18%

England10%

France8%

CalibrationBacktested to a 0.572 Brier score across 987 out-of-sample major-tournament matches (2014–2024): lower is better, and a no-skill 1-in-3 guess scores 0.667. In plain terms, outcomes the model rated 70% likely happened about 70% of the time. Live scoring begins 2026-06-11. See the scoreboard →

De selectie

Predicted squad

Model-predicted · snapshot 2026-05-28

No jersey numbers assigned in the underlying source. The 26 below are picked by the model from the team's recent call-up pool.

Goalkeepers (1)

PlayerStat

Kim Seung-gyuCaps-drivenFC Tokyo

85c—0.42

Defenders (4)

PlayerStat

Kim Min-jaeCaps-driven↘Bayern Munich

77c19tackles0.41

Seol Young-wooCaps-driven→Red Star Belgrade

32c—0.49

Kim Moon-hwanCaps-drivenDaejeon Hana Citizen

34c—0.34

Cho Yu-minRating-drivenSharjah

18c—0.49

Midfielders (3)

PlayerStat

Hwang Hee-chanCaps-driven→Wolverhampton Wanderers

77c10assists0.51

Lee Kang-in↘Paris Saint-Germain

46c13assists0.87

Hwang In-beomRecoveringCaps-driven↗Feyenoord

71c5assists0.74

Forwards (3)

PlayerStat

Son Heung-minCaps-driven↘Los Angeles FC

142c54goals0.71

Cho Gue-sungCaps-driven↘Midtjylland

42c10goals0.55

Oh Hyeon-gyuBeşiktaş

26c6goals0.45

Bench

★ likely first sub badge on the top-3 by first-sub score within each position group, plus a late-game impact rating where club per-90 stats are available.

Goalkeepers (2)

PlayerStat

Jo Hyeon-wooCaps-driven↘Ulsan HD★ Likely first sub

47c—0.47

Song Bum-keunRating-drivenJeonbuk Hyundai Motors★ Likely first sub

2c—0.47

Defenders (6)

PlayerStat

Jens CastropRating-drivenBorussia Mönchengladbach★ Likely first sub

5c—0.56

Lee Tae-seokAustria Wien★ Likely first sub

14c—0.28

Park Jin-seobZhejiang FC

12c—0.28

Lee Han-beomRating-drivenMidtjylland★ Likely first sub

6c—0.36

Kim Tae-hyeonRating-drivenKashima Antlers

7c—0.27

Lee Ki-hyukCaps-drivenGangwon FC

1c—0.00

Midfielders (7)

PlayerStat

Lee Jae-sungRecoveringCaps-driven→Mainz 05impact 28/100

103c17assists0.41

Paik Seung-hoCaps-drivenBirmingham Cityimpact 8/100

25c0assists0.28

Kim Jin-gyuCaps-drivenJeonbuk Hyundai Motors

20c2assists0.25

Lee Dong-gyeongUlsan HD

16c2assists0.27

Bae Jun-hoRating-drivenStoke City★ Likely first sub

12c4assists0.37

Yang Hyun-junRating-drivenCeltic★ Likely first sub

8c0assists0.42

Eom Ji-sungRating-drivenSwansea City★ Likely first sub

8c0assists0.34

▸How to read this squad— 4 columns explained

Pos: Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
Caps: Senior international appearances. Used by the model as a recency-weighted signal of how often the manager calls the player up.
Stat: Position-aware stat: career international goals for forwards; career international assists for midfielders (Transfermarkt); latest available Big-5 club season's total tackles for defenders (FBref); latest available Big-5 club season's save percentage for goalkeepers (FBref). Em-dash when no data is joined — most often for defenders and keepers at non-Big-5 clubs.
Rating: Composite rating (Model #4) — combines recent caps + goals, recent club xG and xAG per 90, position-relative quality, and call-up priors. Higher = the model thinks the player is more likely to start. Typically 0.9 (depth) to 2.5 (elite).

★ Likely first sub — the bench player the model rates most likely to be the first substitute for their position. Computed from a first-sub score (cap-recency + impact rating); ties broken by Rating.

Selection driver — coloured chips show which input dominates a player's selection score. Caps-driven = selected mainly on international experience. Rating-driven = selected mainly on club performance quality. Jersey-boosted = jersey number from a recent squad snapshot lifted their score. Goals-driven = international goal record was the decisive factor. No chip when the score is a balanced blend.

Squad cohesion

Projected XI · club overlap

Low coverage: 3/11 of the projected XI have club-minutes rows in our ratings table. Numbers below are structurally suppressed and should be read alongside the resolved count, not in isolation.

Pairwise club minutes: 0.00%; Share of the 55-pair × 3000-minute ceiling. Higher = more of the XI plays together at club level.

Club concentration: 0.333; How concentrated the XI is across clubs. 0.091 = 11 different clubs · 1.000 = all the same club.

Top-3 clubs share: 100%; 3 of 3 play for the three most common clubs in the XI.

Top clubs in projected XI

Bayern Munich1
Paris Saint Germain1
Tottenham1

Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →

Squad depth

Projected XI · replaceability

Most irreplaceable starters

Hwang Hee-chanStrikerLikely cover: no natural backupreplacement-level ST ~0.220.49gap to repl.
Hwang In-beomDefensive midfieldLikely cover: Park Jin-seob · 0.28Zhejiang FC0.46gap to repl.
Lee Kang-inAttacking midfieldLikely cover: Lee Jae-sung · 0.60Mainz 050.33gap to repl.

Gap to repl. = how far this nation's rating at the position falls from the starter to his likely in-squad replacement (named above). Larger = harder to replace.

Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →

Groepsschema

Group-stage schedule

MD	Date	Opponent	Venue
1	Jun 11, 2026	Czech Republic	Zapopan, Mexico
2	Jun 18, 2026	Mexico	Zapopan, Mexico
3	Jun 24, 2026	South Africa	Guadalupe, Mexico

Onderlinge confrontaties

Verwachte doelpuntenmakers South Korea →

Verhaallijnen

Storylines

Updated 14 days ago

Dead-ballSon Heung-min

Takes corners, free kicks, and penalties — the team's dead-ball threat.

Long-haul

Travels 34,978 km across 2 venues in the group stage — one of the longest itineraries in the field.

League pedigree

Only 4 of 24 predicted-squad players played in a top-5 European league last season — the rest play home or in non-top-5 leagues.

Last danceKim Seung-gyu

35 at kickoff with 85 caps — probably his final World Cup.

Vorm en trackrecord

Statistical profile

Counter Attacker

Attack

Attack rating0.7329th/48

Shots per match10.828th/48

Chance quality0.08238th/48

Defence

Defence rating0.6518th/48

Goalkeeper rating0.5129th/48

GK: Kim Seung-gyu

Set pieces

Set-piece goal share12.6%22nd/48

Penalty conversion72.5%21st/48

Penalty save rate22.5%26th/48

Style

Possession43.8%42nd/48

Press intensity25.032nd/48

Directness7.111th/48

Crossing volume398.330th/48

Long ball volume39.511th/48

Build-up length6.124th/48

Squad

Avg. minutes per starter1,28634th/48

Club familiarity0.00033rd/48

Workload class: low

Attack and defence ratings from the model; style metrics from recent international matches; penalty rates via Bayesian estimation; goalkeeper rating from shot-prevention data. Rank is out of 48 tournament teams.

Where goals come from

Phase of play · scored & conceded

Scored8 goals · 82 shots

Conceded11 goals · 107 shots

Open play
Set piece
Counter
Penalty

Share of goals by how the chance began, across 7 matches (WC2018,WC2022). Shoot-out kicks are excluded. Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →

Group-stage matchups

vs Czech Republic

Win40.1%

Draw26.5%

Loss33.4%

Expected goals for1.09

Expected goals against1.21

Likeliest score1-1 (13.8%)

Both teams score47.3%

Clean sheet29.7%

Full fixture analysis →

vs Mexico

Win28.2%

Draw27.9%

Loss43.9%

Expected goals for0.95

Expected goals against1.12

Likeliest score1-1 (14.1%)

Both teams score41.9%

Clean sheet32.8%

Full fixture analysis →

vs South Africa

Win54.7%

Draw26.8%

Loss18.5%

Expected goals for1.27

Expected goals against0.85

Likeliest score0-1 (14.7%)

Both teams score41.7%

Clean sheet42.9%

Full fixture analysis →

Probabilities from the calibrated ensemble model. xG from the Dixon–Coles fit. See each fixture page for full analysis.

Rating & probability history

10 snapshots · 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-10

Each point is one model build. The shaded band is the bootstrap 90% credible interval around the tournament-winner probability.

Recent form (10 matches)

Record6W · 1D · 3L

Goals15–12

Form

Date	Opponent	Score	Result	Competition
2026-03-31	AAustria	0–1	L	Friendly
2026-03-28	NIvory Coast	0–4	L	Friendly
2025-11-18	HGhana	1–0	W	Friendly
2025-11-14	HBolivia	2–0	W	Friendly
2025-10-14	HParaguay	2–0	W	Friendly
2025-10-10	HBrazil	0–5	L	Friendly
2025-09-09	NMexico	2–2	D	Friendly
2025-09-06	AUnited States	2–0	W	Friendly
2025-06-10	HKuwait	4–0	W	FIFA World Cup qualification
2025-06-05	AIraq	2–0	W	FIFA World Cup qualification

martj42 international results (CC0) · last 10 matches · ~2 years.

Head-to-head vs group opponents

Opponent	Meetings	W-D-L	Last meeting
Mexico	14	4-2-8	2025 — Draw (2–2) · Friendly
Czech Republic	3	1-1-1	2016 — Win (2–1) · Friendly
South Africa	0	—	No prior meetings

All meetings via the martj42 international results dataset.

Major tournaments — most recent appearance

Tournament	Year	Finish	W-D-L	Since then
AFC Asian Cup	2024	Semi-finals	2-3-1	Same head coach (Hong Myung-bo) since 2024 19/23 of current pool (83%) were active that year
FIFA World Cup	2022	Round of 16	1-1-2	New head coach since then — now Hong Myung-bo (appointed 2024) 17/23 of current pool (74%) were active that year
Gold Cup	2002	5 matches	0-2-3	New head coach since then — now Hong Myung-bo (appointed 2024) 0/23 of current pool (0%) were active that year

Source: FIFA archives. Penalty outcomes resolved to W/L.

Toernooivooruitzicht

Analysis

How they play

Path to success

What they must execute

Controversial take

Key numbers

How they play

Group A finish · South Korea?

Stage progression · South Korea?

Likely knockout path · South Korea

De selectie

Predicted squad?

Squad cohesion

Top clubs in projected XI

Squad depth

Most irreplaceable starters

Groepsschema

Group-stage schedule

Onderlinge confrontaties

Verhaallijnen

Vorm en trackrecord

Statistical profile

Attack

Defence

Set pieces

Style

Squad

Where goals come from

Group-stage matchups

Rating & probability history

Recent form (10 matches)

Head-to-head vs group opponents

Major tournaments — most recent appearance

Group A finish · South Korea

Stage progression · South Korea

Predicted squad