Group F · Matchday 3

Full-timeFT
Netherlands
3:1
Tunisia

The day's strongest pairing by combined FIFA ranking is free for everyone: full forecast and full live tracker. Every other match needs a Standard Pass. See the Pass

Live descriptive stats

NetherlandsTunisia
Expected goals (xG) — predicted vs actual
predictedactualdiff
Netherlands1.790.00−1.79
Tunisia0.670.00−0.67

Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.

Shots
20
10
Shots on target
7
4
Possession (%)
72%
28%
Corners
6
4
Fouls
10
11
Yellow cards
0
0
Red cards
0
0

Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.

Analysis

How it plays out

Netherlands press high and force the tempo. Tunisia's pragmatic setup needs to absorb that pressure early and find the right moments to play forward. Tunisia generate 26% of their xG from set pieces. Foul discipline and aerial duels from Netherlands matter more here than usual.

What decides it

Netherlands press high (PPDA 20.6). If the press doesn't win the ball early, the space behind their back line becomes exposed. Tunisia adjust shape to the opponent. That flexibility is an asset, but it takes longer to settle into a game. Memphis Depay's 11.0% scoring probability is the highest in this fixture. Containing that output is Tunisia's primary defensive task.

Off the pitch

No major off-pitch asymmetries. This one is decided by the football.

The angle

The model gives Tunisia just 14.5% to win. Every World Cup produces group-stage upsets; the question is whether this fixture is one of them.

Latest news & match context

Team news

No recent headlines for Netherlands or Tunisia.

Match conditions
Stage:
Group F · Matchday 3
Date:
25 Jun
Availability

Netherlands

Netherlands come in at close to full strength.

Tunisia

Tunisia come in at close to full strength.

What it means

Netherlands and Tunisia both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.

The model's style-matchup analysis nudges the forecast +0.6pp toward Netherlands, versus the baseline team-strength prior.

Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.

LiveDescriptive stats and the delayed live win probability · updates every ~30 seconds

Chance-creation momentum

rolling 10-minute xG · delayed
Netherlands (above the line)Tunisia (below)
15'30'HT60'75'Goal, 3' · Ellyes SkhiriGoal, 7' · Brian BrobbeyGoal, 54' · Hazem MastouriGoal, 62' · Jan Paul van Hecke

Expected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Netherlands minus Tunisia: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.

Live commentary & events

NetherlandsTunisia
  • Own goalEllyes SkhiriEllyes Skhiri turns it into their own net — credited to Tunisia.3'
  • GoalBrian Brobbey· Virgil van DijkBrian Brobbey scores for Netherlands.7'
  • 54'GoalHazem Mastouri· Hannibal MejbriHazem Mastouri scores for Tunisia.
  • GoalJan Paul van Hecke· Tijjani ReijndersJan Paul van Hecke scores for Netherlands.62'
  • 67'SubstitutionRani Khedira· Mohamed Hadj MahmoudTunisia change: Mohamed Hadj Mahmoud.
  • 68'SubstitutionAnis Ben Slimane· Elias AchouriTunisia change: Elias Achouri.
  • 68'SubstitutionMohamed Amine Ben Hamida· Mortadha Ben OuanesTunisia change: Mortadha Ben Ouanes.
  • SubstitutionFrenkie de Jong· Teun KoopmeinersNetherlands change: Teun Koopmeiners.72'
  • SubstitutionTijjani Reijnders· Justin KluivertNetherlands change: Justin Kluivert.72'
  • SubstitutionDonyell Malen· Crysencio SummervilleNetherlands change: Crysencio Summerville.72'
  • 75'SubstitutionIsmael Gharbi· Firas ChaouatTunisia change: Firas Chaouat.
  • SubstitutionBrian Brobbey· Memphis DepayNetherlands change: Memphis Depay.77'
  • SubstitutionCody Gakpo· Noa LangNetherlands change: Noa Lang.84'
  • 90'SubstitutionHazem Mastouri· Sebastian TounektiTunisia change: Sebastian Tounekti.

Player involvement

Netherlands

Brian Brobbey7' Goal · 77' On
Jan Paul van Hecke62' Goal
AVirgil van Dijk7' Assist
ATijjani Reijnders62' Assist · 72' On

Tunisia

Hazem Mastouri54' Goal · 90' On
AHannibal Mejbri54' Assist
Pre-match modelFrozen before kickoff

Pre-match forecast

Netherlands win
69.9%
Draw
23.0%
Tunisia win
7.1%
Netherlands
1.79
expected
goals
Tunisia
0.67

The published probability for this fixture is fixed at lineup confirmation (≈1 hour before kickoff) and never updates afterwards. It is the number the post-match recap holds accountable. The live win probability in the Live section is a separate, delayed, descriptive estimate; it does not replace the published forecast.

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–0
    14.8%
  • 2–0
    13.8%
  • 1–1
    10.8%
  • 0–0
    9.2%
  • 2–1
    9.2%

From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.

Post-match calibration

3 – 1
Netherlands win

Pre-match probability vs realised outcome

  • Netherlands win· realised
    56.0%
  • Draw
    26.4%
  • Tunisia win
    17.6%
Brier score
0.294
Log loss
0.580
xG (final / predicted)
3.00 / 1.76 · Netherlands
1.00 / 0.66 · Tunisia
P(realised outcome)
56.0%

Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.

Full forecast-vs-result recap →

How the live probability works. The published pre-match forecast is frozen at the T-1h lineup-confirmation pass and never changes after kickoff; the post-match recap scores that frozen number against the result. The live win probability shown during play is the same model re-read against the current score and time remaining. It refreshes about once a minute, is always delayed, and is a descriptive research figure, not a betting product or a price of any kind. See /docs/methodology/ for the full framing.