Group F · Matchday 3
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Live descriptive stats
Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.
Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.
Analysis
How it plays out
Netherlands press high and force the tempo. Tunisia's pragmatic setup needs to absorb that pressure early and find the right moments to play forward. Tunisia generate 26% of their xG from set pieces. Foul discipline and aerial duels from Netherlands matter more here than usual.
What decides it
Netherlands press high (PPDA 20.6). If the press doesn't win the ball early, the space behind their back line becomes exposed. Tunisia adjust shape to the opponent. That flexibility is an asset, but it takes longer to settle into a game. Memphis Depay's 11.0% scoring probability is the highest in this fixture. Containing that output is Tunisia's primary defensive task.
Off the pitch
No major off-pitch asymmetries. This one is decided by the football.
The angle
The model gives Tunisia just 14.5% to win. Every World Cup produces group-stage upsets; the question is whether this fixture is one of them.
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Netherlands or Tunisia.
- Stage:
- Group F · Matchday 3
- Date:
- 25 Jun
Netherlands
Netherlands come in at close to full strength.
Tunisia
Tunisia come in at close to full strength.
Netherlands and Tunisia both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.
The model's style-matchup analysis nudges the forecast +0.6pp toward Netherlands, versus the baseline team-strength prior.
Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.
Chance-creation momentum
rolling 10-minute xG · delayedExpected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Netherlands minus Tunisia: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.
Live commentary & events
- Own goalEllyes SkhiriEllyes Skhiri turns it into their own net — credited to Tunisia.3'
- GoalBrian Brobbey· Virgil van DijkBrian Brobbey scores for Netherlands.7'
- 54'GoalHazem Mastouri· Hannibal MejbriHazem Mastouri scores for Tunisia.
- GoalJan Paul van Hecke· Tijjani ReijndersJan Paul van Hecke scores for Netherlands.62'
- 67'SubstitutionRani Khedira· Mohamed Hadj MahmoudTunisia change: Mohamed Hadj Mahmoud.
- 68'SubstitutionAnis Ben Slimane· Elias AchouriTunisia change: Elias Achouri.
- 68'SubstitutionMohamed Amine Ben Hamida· Mortadha Ben OuanesTunisia change: Mortadha Ben Ouanes.
- SubstitutionFrenkie de Jong· Teun KoopmeinersNetherlands change: Teun Koopmeiners.72'
- SubstitutionTijjani Reijnders· Justin KluivertNetherlands change: Justin Kluivert.72'
- SubstitutionDonyell Malen· Crysencio SummervilleNetherlands change: Crysencio Summerville.72'
- 75'SubstitutionIsmael Gharbi· Firas ChaouatTunisia change: Firas Chaouat.
- SubstitutionBrian Brobbey· Memphis DepayNetherlands change: Memphis Depay.77'
- SubstitutionCody Gakpo· Noa LangNetherlands change: Noa Lang.84'
- 90'SubstitutionHazem Mastouri· Sebastian TounektiTunisia change: Sebastian Tounekti.
Player involvement
Netherlands
Tunisia
Pre-match forecast
goals
Die veröffentlichte Wahrscheinlichkeit für dieses Spiel wird bei der Aufstellungsbestätigung (≈1 Stunde vor Anpfiff) festgeschrieben und ändert sich danach nicht mehr. An dieser Zahl wird der Rückblick nach Abpfiff gemessen. Die Live-Siegwahrscheinlichkeit im Live-Bereich ist eine separate, verzögerte, beschreibende Schätzung; sie ersetzt die veröffentlichte Prognose nicht.
Most likely scorelines
- 1–014.8%
- 2–013.8%
- 1–110.8%
- 0–09.2%
- 2–19.2%
From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.
Post-match calibration
Pre-match probability vs realised outcome
- Netherlands win· realised56.0%
- Draw26.4%
- Tunisia win17.6%
Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.