Group F · Matchday 3

Full-timeFT
Netherlands
3:1
Tunisia

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Live descriptive stats

NetherlandsTunisia
Expected goals (xG) — predicted vs actual
predictedactualdiff
Netherlands1.790.00−1.79
Tunisia0.670.00−0.67

Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.

Shots
20
10
Shots on target
7
4
Possession (%)
72%
28%
Corners
6
4
Fouls
10
11
Yellow cards
0
0
Red cards
0
0

Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.

Analysis

How it plays out

Netherlands press high and force the tempo. Tunisia's pragmatic setup needs to absorb that pressure early and find the right moments to play forward. Tunisia generate 26% of their xG from set pieces. Foul discipline and aerial duels from Netherlands matter more here than usual.

What decides it

Netherlands press high (PPDA 20.6). If the press doesn't win the ball early, the space behind their back line becomes exposed. Tunisia adjust shape to the opponent. That flexibility is an asset, but it takes longer to settle into a game. Memphis Depay's 11.0% scoring probability is the highest in this fixture. Containing that output is Tunisia's primary defensive task.

Off the pitch

No major off-pitch asymmetries. This one is decided by the football.

The angle

The model gives Tunisia just 14.5% to win. Every World Cup produces group-stage upsets; the question is whether this fixture is one of them.

Latest news & match context

Team news

No recent headlines for Netherlands or Tunisia.

Match conditions
Stage:
Group F · Matchday 3
Date:
25 Jun
Availability

Netherlands

Netherlands come in at close to full strength.

Tunisia

Tunisia come in at close to full strength.

What it means

Netherlands and Tunisia both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.

The model's style-matchup analysis nudges the forecast +0.6pp toward Netherlands, versus the baseline team-strength prior.

Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.

실시간설명적 스탯과 지연 제공 라이브 승리 확률 · 약 30초마다 갱신

Chance-creation momentum

rolling 10-minute xG · delayed
Netherlands (above the line)Tunisia (below)
15'30'HT60'75'Goal, 3' · Ellyes SkhiriGoal, 7' · Brian BrobbeyGoal, 54' · Hazem MastouriGoal, 62' · Jan Paul van Hecke

Expected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Netherlands minus Tunisia: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.

Live commentary & events

NetherlandsTunisia
  • Own goalEllyes SkhiriEllyes Skhiri turns it into their own net — credited to Tunisia.3'
  • GoalBrian Brobbey· Virgil van DijkBrian Brobbey scores for Netherlands.7'
  • 54'GoalHazem Mastouri· Hannibal MejbriHazem Mastouri scores for Tunisia.
  • GoalJan Paul van Hecke· Tijjani ReijndersJan Paul van Hecke scores for Netherlands.62'
  • 67'SubstitutionRani Khedira· Mohamed Hadj MahmoudTunisia change: Mohamed Hadj Mahmoud.
  • 68'SubstitutionAnis Ben Slimane· Elias AchouriTunisia change: Elias Achouri.
  • 68'SubstitutionMohamed Amine Ben Hamida· Mortadha Ben OuanesTunisia change: Mortadha Ben Ouanes.
  • SubstitutionFrenkie de Jong· Teun KoopmeinersNetherlands change: Teun Koopmeiners.72'
  • SubstitutionTijjani Reijnders· Justin KluivertNetherlands change: Justin Kluivert.72'
  • SubstitutionDonyell Malen· Crysencio SummervilleNetherlands change: Crysencio Summerville.72'
  • 75'SubstitutionIsmael Gharbi· Firas ChaouatTunisia change: Firas Chaouat.
  • SubstitutionBrian Brobbey· Memphis DepayNetherlands change: Memphis Depay.77'
  • SubstitutionCody Gakpo· Noa LangNetherlands change: Noa Lang.84'
  • 90'SubstitutionHazem Mastouri· Sebastian TounektiTunisia change: Sebastian Tounekti.

Player involvement

Netherlands

Brian Brobbey7' Goal · 77' On
Jan Paul van Hecke62' Goal
AVirgil van Dijk7' Assist
ATijjani Reijnders62' Assist · 72' On

Tunisia

Hazem Mastouri54' Goal · 90' On
AHannibal Mejbri54' Assist
경기 전 모델킥오프 전 고정

Pre-match forecast

Netherlands win
70.1%
Draw
22.9%
Tunisia win
7.0%
Netherlands
1.79
expected
goals
Tunisia
0.67

이 경기의 공개 확률은 라인업 확정 시점(킥오프 약 1시간 전)에 고정되며 이후 갱신되지 않습니다. 경기 후 리뷰가 책임을 묻는 수치가 바로 이것입니다. 라이브 섹션의 라이브 승리 확률은 별도의 지연 제공 설명적 추정치로, 공개된 예측을 대체하지 않습니다.

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–0
    14.8%
  • 2–0
    13.8%
  • 1–1
    10.8%
  • 0–0
    9.2%
  • 2–1
    9.2%

From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.

Post-match calibration

3 – 1
Netherlands win

Pre-match probability vs realised outcome

  • Netherlands win· realised
    56.0%
  • Draw
    26.4%
  • Tunisia win
    17.6%
Brier score
0.294
Log loss
0.580
xG (final / predicted)
3.00 / 1.76 · Netherlands
1.00 / 0.66 · Tunisia
P(realised outcome)
56.0%

Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.

전체 예측 대 결과 회고 →

라이브 확률의 작동 방식. 공개된 경기 전 예측은 라인업 확정(T-1h) 시점에 동결되어 킥오프 이후 변하지 않습니다. 경기 후 리뷰는 이 동결된 수치를 결과와 대조합니다. 경기 중 표시되는 라이브 승리 확률은 같은 모델을 현재 스코어와 남은 시간에 맞춰 다시 읽은 것입니다. 약 1분마다 갱신되고 항상 지연되며, 설명적 리서치 수치일 뿐 사행성 상품도, 어떤 형태의 가격도 아닙니다. 전체 프레임은 /docs/methodology/ 에서 확인하세요.