Group E · Matchday 3

Full-timeFT
Germany
1:2
Ecuador

The day's strongest pairing by combined FIFA ranking is free for everyone: full forecast and full live tracker. Every other match needs a Standard Pass. See the Pass

Live descriptive stats

GermanyEcuador
Expected goals (xG) — predicted vs actual
predictedactualdiff
Germany1.280.00−1.28
Ecuador0.910.00−0.91

Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.

Shots
11
7
Shots on target
3
3
Possession (%)
61%
39%
Corners
2
3
Fouls
10
15
Yellow cards
1
3
Red cards
0
0

Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.

Analysis

How it plays out

Germany's possession game against Ecuador's transition approach. Ecuador will concede the ball willingly and look to strike when Germany commit numbers forward. Germany will expect to hold 64% possession. Ecuador need their shape to stay compact without the ball and be clinical when they win it back.

What decides it

Germany's possession game (64% avg) requires patience in the final third and quick ball recovery when they lose it. Ecuador will concede possession willingly and attack in transition. Their defensive block needs to hold without fouling in dangerous areas. The scoring threat is evenly split: Niclas Füllkrug (6.5%) and Kevin Rodríguez (3.5%).

Off the pitch

No major off-pitch asymmetries. This one is decided by the football.

The angle

Likely the last World Cup for Enner Valencia. Tournament experience at this level is hard to quantify but hard to replace.

Latest news & match context

Team news

No recent headlines for Germany or Ecuador.

Match conditions
Stage:
Group E · Matchday 3
Date:
25 Jun
Availability

Germany

Germany come in at close to full strength.

Ecuador

Ecuador come in at close to full strength.

What it means

Germany and Ecuador both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.

Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.

LiveDescriptive stats and the delayed live win probability · updates every ~30 seconds

Chance-creation momentum

rolling 10-minute xG · delayed
Germany (above the line)Ecuador (below)
15'30'HT60'75'Goal, 2' · Leroy SanéGoal, 9' · Nilson AnguloGoal, 77' · Gonzalo Plata

Expected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Germany minus Ecuador: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.

Live commentary & events

GermanyEcuador
  • GoalLeroy Sané· Florian WirtzLeroy Sané scores for Germany.2'
  • 9'GoalNilson Angulo· Pedro ViteNilson Angulo scores for Ecuador.
  • 43'Yellow cardPiero Hincapié· FoulPiero Hincapié is booked — Foul.
  • Yellow cardAleksandar Pavlović· FoulAleksandar Pavlović is booked — Foul.44'
  • SubstitutionAleksandar Pavlović· Angelo StillerGermany change: Angelo Stiller.45'
  • VAR reviewKai HavertzVAR review under way.47'
  • 50'Yellow cardAlan Franco· Time WastingAlan Franco is booked — Time Wasting.
  • SubstitutionKai Havertz· Deniz UndavGermany change: Deniz Undav.60'
  • SubstitutionJoshua Kimmich· Malick ThiawGermany change: Malick Thiaw.60'
  • 64'SubstitutionEnner Valencia· Kevin RodriguezEcuador change: Kevin Rodriguez.
  • 64'SubstitutionAlan Franco· Angelo PreciadoEcuador change: Angelo Preciado.
  • SubstitutionFelix Nmecha· Maximilian BeierGermany change: Maximilian Beier.64'
  • 71'SubstitutionPiero Hincapié· Pervis EstupinanEcuador change: Pervis Estupinan.
  • SubstitutionFlorian Wirtz· Pascal GroßGermany change: Pascal Groß.73'
  • 77'GoalGonzalo Plata· Kevin RodriguezGonzalo Plata scores for Ecuador.
  • 85'SubstitutionJohn Yeboah· Felix TorresEcuador change: Felix Torres.
  • 85'SubstitutionNilson Angulo· Jordy CaicedoEcuador change: Jordy Caicedo.
  • 89'Yellow cardGonzalo Plata· FoulGonzalo Plata is booked — Foul.

Player involvement

Germany

Leroy Sané2' Goal
AFlorian Wirtz2' Assist · 73' On
Aleksandar Pavlović44' Yellow card · 45' On

Ecuador

Gonzalo Plata77' Goal · 89' Yellow card
Nilson Angulo9' Goal · 85' On
APedro Vite9' Assist
AKevin Rodriguez64' Off · 77' Assist
Piero Hincapié43' Yellow card · 71' On
Alan Franco50' Yellow card · 64' On
Pre-match modelFrozen before kickoff

Pre-match forecast

Germany win
50.1%
Draw
26.6%
Ecuador win
23.3%
Germany
1.28
expected
goals
Ecuador
0.91

The published probability for this fixture is fixed at lineup confirmation (≈1 hour before kickoff) and never updates afterwards. It is the number the post-match recap holds accountable. The live win probability in the Live section is a separate, delayed, descriptive estimate; it does not replace the published forecast.

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–1
    13.8%
  • 1–0
    13.5%
  • 0–0
    12.0%
  • 0–1
    9.4%
  • 2–0
    9.1%

From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.

Post-match calibration

1 – 2
Ecuador win

Pre-match probability vs realised outcome

  • Germany win
    41.5%
  • Draw
    29.8%
  • Ecuador win· realised
    28.8%
Brier score
0.768
Log loss
1.246
xG (final / predicted)
1.00 / 1.27 · Germany
2.00 / 0.90 · Ecuador
P(realised outcome)
28.8%

Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.

Full forecast-vs-result recap →

How the live probability works. The published pre-match forecast is frozen at the T-1h lineup-confirmation pass and never changes after kickoff; the post-match recap scores that frozen number against the result. The live win probability shown during play is the same model re-read against the current score and time remaining. It refreshes about once a minute, is always delayed, and is a descriptive research figure, not a betting product or a price of any kind. See /docs/methodology/ for the full framing.