Group E · Matchday 3

Full-timeFT
Germany
1:2
Ecuador

أقوى مواجهة في اليوم بحسب مجموع تصنيف الفيفا متاحة مجانًا للجميع: التوقعات الكاملة وأداة المتابعة المباشرة الكاملة. كل المباريات الأخرى تتطلب Standard Pass. اطّلع على الـPass

Live descriptive stats

GermanyEcuador
Expected goals (xG) — predicted vs actual
predictedactualdiff
Germany1.280.00−1.28
Ecuador0.910.00−0.91

Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.

Shots
11
7
Shots on target
3
3
Possession (%)
61%
39%
Corners
2
3
Fouls
10
15
Yellow cards
1
3
Red cards
0
0

Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.

Analysis

How it plays out

Germany's possession game against Ecuador's transition approach. Ecuador will concede the ball willingly and look to strike when Germany commit numbers forward. Germany will expect to hold 64% possession. Ecuador need their shape to stay compact without the ball and be clinical when they win it back.

What decides it

Germany's possession game (64% avg) requires patience in the final third and quick ball recovery when they lose it. Ecuador will concede possession willingly and attack in transition. Their defensive block needs to hold without fouling in dangerous areas. The scoring threat is evenly split: Niclas Füllkrug (6.5%) and Kevin Rodríguez (3.5%).

Off the pitch

No major off-pitch asymmetries. This one is decided by the football.

The angle

Likely the last World Cup for Enner Valencia. Tournament experience at this level is hard to quantify but hard to replace.

Latest news & match context

Team news

No recent headlines for Germany or Ecuador.

Match conditions
Stage:
Group E · Matchday 3
Date:
25 Jun
Availability

Germany

Germany come in at close to full strength.

Ecuador

Ecuador come in at close to full strength.

What it means

Germany and Ecuador both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.

Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.

مباشرإحصاءات وصفية واحتمالية فوز مباشرة بتأخير · تتحدَّث كل ~30 ثانية

Chance-creation momentum

rolling 10-minute xG · delayed
Germany (above the line)Ecuador (below)
15'30'HT60'75'Goal, 2' · Leroy SanéGoal, 9' · Nilson AnguloGoal, 77' · Gonzalo Plata

Expected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Germany minus Ecuador: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.

Live commentary & events

GermanyEcuador
  • GoalLeroy Sané· Florian WirtzLeroy Sané scores for Germany.2'
  • 9'GoalNilson Angulo· Pedro ViteNilson Angulo scores for Ecuador.
  • 43'Yellow cardPiero Hincapié· FoulPiero Hincapié is booked — Foul.
  • Yellow cardAleksandar Pavlović· FoulAleksandar Pavlović is booked — Foul.44'
  • SubstitutionAleksandar Pavlović· Angelo StillerGermany change: Angelo Stiller.45'
  • VAR reviewKai HavertzVAR review under way.47'
  • 50'Yellow cardAlan Franco· Time WastingAlan Franco is booked — Time Wasting.
  • SubstitutionKai Havertz· Deniz UndavGermany change: Deniz Undav.60'
  • SubstitutionJoshua Kimmich· Malick ThiawGermany change: Malick Thiaw.60'
  • 64'SubstitutionEnner Valencia· Kevin RodriguezEcuador change: Kevin Rodriguez.
  • 64'SubstitutionAlan Franco· Angelo PreciadoEcuador change: Angelo Preciado.
  • SubstitutionFelix Nmecha· Maximilian BeierGermany change: Maximilian Beier.64'
  • 71'SubstitutionPiero Hincapié· Pervis EstupinanEcuador change: Pervis Estupinan.
  • SubstitutionFlorian Wirtz· Pascal GroßGermany change: Pascal Groß.73'
  • 77'GoalGonzalo Plata· Kevin RodriguezGonzalo Plata scores for Ecuador.
  • 85'SubstitutionJohn Yeboah· Felix TorresEcuador change: Felix Torres.
  • 85'SubstitutionNilson Angulo· Jordy CaicedoEcuador change: Jordy Caicedo.
  • 89'Yellow cardGonzalo Plata· FoulGonzalo Plata is booked — Foul.

Player involvement

Germany

Leroy Sané2' Goal
AFlorian Wirtz2' Assist · 73' On
Aleksandar Pavlović44' Yellow card · 45' On

Ecuador

Gonzalo Plata77' Goal · 89' Yellow card
Nilson Angulo9' Goal · 85' On
APedro Vite9' Assist
AKevin Rodriguez64' Off · 77' Assist
Piero Hincapié43' Yellow card · 71' On
Alan Franco50' Yellow card · 64' On
نموذج ما قبل المباراةمُجمَّد قبل الانطلاق

Pre-match forecast

Germany win
50.6%
Draw
26.6%
Ecuador win
22.8%
Germany
1.28
expected
goals
Ecuador
0.91

الاحتمالية المنشورة لهذه المباراة تُثبَّت عند تأكيد التشكيلة (قبل ضربة البداية بساعة تقريبًا) ولا تتحدَّث بعدها. هذا هو الرقم الذي تحاسبه المراجعة بعد المباراة. احتمالية الفوز المباشرة في قسم البث المباشر تقدير منفصل ومتأخر ووصفي؛ ولا تحل محل التوقع المنشور.

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–1
    13.8%
  • 1–0
    13.5%
  • 0–0
    12.0%
  • 0–1
    9.4%
  • 2–0
    9.1%

From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.

Post-match calibration

1 – 2
Ecuador win

Pre-match probability vs realised outcome

  • Germany win
    41.5%
  • Draw
    29.8%
  • Ecuador win· realised
    28.8%
Brier score
0.768
Log loss
1.246
xG (final / predicted)
1.00 / 1.27 · Germany
2.00 / 0.90 · Ecuador
P(realised outcome)
28.8%

Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.

ملخص التوقعات مقابل النتيجة الكامل →

كيف تعمل الاحتمالية المباشرة. التوقع المنشور قبل المباراة يُجمَّد عند قفل التشكيلة (T-1h) ولا يتغير بعد ضربة البداية؛ وتقيس المراجعة بعد المباراة هذا الرقم المجمَّد مقابل النتيجة. احتمالية الفوز المباشرة المعروضة أثناء اللعب هي النموذج نفسه معاد القراءة وفق النتيجة الحالية والوقت المتبقي. تتحدَّث مرة كل دقيقة تقريبًا، ومتأخرة دائمًا، وهي رقم بحثي وصفي، وليست منتجًا للمقامرة ولا سعرًا من أي نوع. انظر /docs/methodology/ للإطار الكامل.