Group E · Matchday 3
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Live descriptive stats
Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.
Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.
Analysis
How it plays out
Germany's possession game against Ecuador's transition approach. Ecuador will concede the ball willingly and look to strike when Germany commit numbers forward. Germany will expect to hold 64% possession. Ecuador need their shape to stay compact without the ball and be clinical when they win it back.
What decides it
Germany's possession game (64% avg) requires patience in the final third and quick ball recovery when they lose it. Ecuador will concede possession willingly and attack in transition. Their defensive block needs to hold without fouling in dangerous areas. The scoring threat is evenly split: Niclas Füllkrug (6.5%) and Kevin Rodríguez (3.5%).
Off the pitch
No major off-pitch asymmetries. This one is decided by the football.
The angle
Likely the last World Cup for Enner Valencia. Tournament experience at this level is hard to quantify but hard to replace.
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Germany or Ecuador.
- Stage:
- Group E · Matchday 3
- Date:
- 25 Jun
Germany and Ecuador both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.
Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.
Chance-creation momentum
rolling 10-minute xG · delayedExpected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Germany minus Ecuador: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.
Live commentary & events
- GoalLeroy Sané· Florian WirtzLeroy Sané scores for Germany.2'
- 9'GoalNilson Angulo· Pedro ViteNilson Angulo scores for Ecuador.
- 43'Yellow cardPiero Hincapié· FoulPiero Hincapié is booked — Foul.
- Yellow cardAleksandar Pavlović· FoulAleksandar Pavlović is booked — Foul.44'
- SubstitutionAleksandar Pavlović· Angelo StillerGermany change: Angelo Stiller.45'
- VAR reviewKai HavertzVAR review under way.47'
- 50'Yellow cardAlan Franco· Time WastingAlan Franco is booked — Time Wasting.
- SubstitutionKai Havertz· Deniz UndavGermany change: Deniz Undav.60'
- SubstitutionJoshua Kimmich· Malick ThiawGermany change: Malick Thiaw.60'
- 64'SubstitutionEnner Valencia· Kevin RodriguezEcuador change: Kevin Rodriguez.
- 64'SubstitutionAlan Franco· Angelo PreciadoEcuador change: Angelo Preciado.
- SubstitutionFelix Nmecha· Maximilian BeierGermany change: Maximilian Beier.64'
- 71'SubstitutionPiero Hincapié· Pervis EstupinanEcuador change: Pervis Estupinan.
- SubstitutionFlorian Wirtz· Pascal GroßGermany change: Pascal Groß.73'
- 77'GoalGonzalo Plata· Kevin RodriguezGonzalo Plata scores for Ecuador.
- 85'SubstitutionJohn Yeboah· Felix TorresEcuador change: Felix Torres.
- 85'SubstitutionNilson Angulo· Jordy CaicedoEcuador change: Jordy Caicedo.
- 89'Yellow cardGonzalo Plata· FoulGonzalo Plata is booked — Foul.
Player involvement
Germany
Ecuador
Pre-match forecast
goals
A probabilidade publicada para esta partida é fixada na confirmação das escalações (≈1 hora antes do início) e não se atualiza depois. É o número que a revisão pós-jogo cobra. A probabilidade de vitória ao vivo na seção Live é uma estimativa separada, com atraso e descritiva; ela não substitui a previsão publicada.
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.8%
- 1–013.5%
- 0–012.0%
- 0–19.4%
- 2–09.1%
From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.
Post-match calibration
Pre-match probability vs realised outcome
- Germany win41.5%
- Draw29.8%
- Ecuador win· realised28.8%
Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.