Group I · Matchday 2
The day's strongest pairing by combined FIFA ranking is free for everyone: full forecast and full live tracker. Every other match needs a Standard Pass. See the Pass
Live descriptive stats
Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.
Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.
Analysis
How it plays out
Both sides run a balanced system, so this becomes a test of who executes the same ideas better on the day.
What decides it
Marcus Thuram's 10.0% scoring probability is the highest in this fixture. Containing that output is Iraq's primary defensive task.
Off the pitch
Didier Deschamps (14 years in charge of France) vs Graham Arnold (1 years). That tenure gap shows up in squad familiarity and set-piece coordination.
The angle
The model gives Iraq just 7.3% to win. Every World Cup produces group-stage upsets; the question is whether this fixture is one of them.
Latest news & match context
- France vs. Spain, 2026 World Cup semifinals: Match thread and discussion · Stars and Stripes FC · 14 Jul
- World Cup Watch Thread: Semi Finals | France vs Spain · Royal Blue Mersey · 14 Jul
- France v Spain - who would England rather face in the World Cup final? · Daily Mirror — Football · 14 Jul
- What color jerseys are France and Spain wearing today? World Cup kit reveal · Yahoo Sports Australia · 14 Jul
- How and where to watch Spain vs. France 2026 World Cup match: TV channel, streaming options · The New York Times · 14 Jul
- Stage:
- Group I · Matchday 2
- Date:
- 22 Jun
France and Iraq both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.
The model's style-matchup analysis nudges the forecast −0.1pp toward a draw, versus the baseline team-strength prior.
Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.
Chance-creation momentum
rolling 10-minute xG · delayedExpected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, France minus Iraq: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.
Live commentary & events
- 6'Yellow cardAmir Al-Ammari· FoulAmir Al-Ammari is booked — Foul.
- GoalKylian Mbappé· Michael OliseKylian Mbappé scores for France.14'
- 26'SubstitutionAymen Hussein· Ali Al-HamadiIraq change: Ali Al-Hamadi.
- 28'VAR reviewAli Al-HamadiVAR review under way.
- GoalKylian Mbappé· Ousmane DembéléKylian Mbappé scores for France.54'
- 60'SubstitutionZaid Tahseen· Rebin SulakaIraq change: Rebin Sulaka.
- 60'SubstitutionZaid Ismael· Youssef AmynIraq change: Youssef Amyn.
- GoalOusmane Dembélé· Michael OliseOusmane Dembélé scores for France.66'
- SubstitutionOusmane Dembélé· Désiré DoueFrance change: Désiré Doue.68'
- SubstitutionMichael Olise· Rayan CherkiFrance change: Rayan Cherki.68'
- 68'SubstitutionAmir Al-Ammari· Aimar SherIraq change: Aimar Sher.
- 69'SubstitutionIbrahim Bayesh· Marko FarjiIraq change: Marko Farji.
- SubstitutionBradley Barcola· Maghnes AklioucheFrance change: Maghnes Akliouche.83'
- SubstitutionJules Koundé· Malo GustoFrance change: Malo Gusto.83'
- SubstitutionKylian Mbappé· Marcus ThuramFrance change: Marcus Thuram.91'
Player involvement
France
Iraq
Pre-match forecast
goals
The published probability for this fixture is fixed at lineup confirmation (≈1 hour before kickoff) and never updates afterwards. It is the number the post-match recap holds accountable. The live win probability in the Live section is a separate, delayed, descriptive estimate; it does not replace the published forecast.
Most likely scorelines
- 2–017.8%
- 1–014.7%
- 3–014.1%
- 4–08.3%
- 2–16.9%
From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.