Group I · Matchday 2

← Pronóstico previo al partido
Scheduled
France
–:–
Iraq

Live score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.

Match-outcome probability

  • France win
    75.3%
  • Draw
    18.9%
  • Iraq win
    5.7%
CalibrationBacktested to a 0.572 Brier score across 987 out-of-sample major-tournament matches (2014–2024): lower is better, and a no-skill 1-in-3 guess scores 0.667. In plain terms, outcomes the model rated 70% likely happened about 70% of the time. Live scoring begins 2026-06-11. See the scoreboard →

Analysis

The model rates France as clear favourites at 75.3%, with Iraq at 5.7% and the draw at 18.9%. The Elo gap is substantial at 474 points in France's favour, reflecting a clear strength differential in recent form. In Group I, France are expected to advance (97.3%) while Iraq face a tighter path (12.9%) — this result could be decisive for Iraq's campaign.

Tactical matchup

Both sides share a balanced identity — expect a contest of execution within similar tactical frameworks.

Key battlegrounds

The individual battle features Marcus Thuram (P(scores) 9.3%) against Aymen Hussein (2.9%) — their impact could prove decisive.

Situational factors

France's Didier Deschamps (14.5 years in post) brings significantly more tenure than Graham Arnold (1.4 years) — squad cohesion and tactical familiarity may differ accordingly.

Match storyline

At 5.7%, an Iraq result would qualify as a genuine upset — the kind of group-stage surprise every World Cup produces. France enter as defending champions — every fixture carries the weight of that legacy.

Key numbers

75.3% / 18.9% / 5.7%H / D / ACalibrated ensemble probability
+474Elo differentialFrance 2081 vs Iraq 1607
2.26 – 0.44Expected goals (H – A)Dixon-Coles per-team rates
2-0 (17.2%)Modal scorelineMost likely exact full-time result
31.9%Both teams scoreP(both sides find the net)
9.3%P(goal) — Marcus ThuramHighest anytime-scorer probability in fixture

Latest news & match context

Team news
Match conditions
Stage:
Group I · Matchday 2

Both sides face potential squad absences, which could influence the match outcome. Unlock the full breakdown with a Pass.

La calibración post-partido es gratuita. Cuando este partido termine, el resumen de pronóstico frente a resultado (probabilidad previa frente al resultado real, Brier score, log loss y xG final frente a predicho) se publicará en la página de resumen, abierta para todos.

Standard Pass

That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.

The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.

Scoreline distribution

Half-time / full-time

Four models compared

Most likely scorers

Standard Pass

See exactly how France v Iraq plays out

The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.

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Cómo funciona la probabilidad en vivo. El pronóstico previo publicado se congela en el cierre de alineaciones (T-1h) y no cambia tras el inicio; el repaso posterior evalúa ese número congelado frente al resultado. La probabilidad de victoria en vivo que se muestra durante el juego es el mismo modelo, releído según el marcador y el tiempo restante. Se actualiza más o menos una vez por minuto, siempre con retraso, y es una cifra descriptiva de investigación, no un producto de juego ni un precio de ningún tipo. Consulta /docs/methodology/ para el marco completo.