Group I · Matchday 2
O confronto mais forte do dia pelo ranking FIFA combinado é grátis para todos: previsão completa e tracker ao vivo completo. Os demais jogos exigem um Standard Pass. Ver o Pass
Live descriptive stats
Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.
Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.
Analysis
How it plays out
Both sides run a balanced system, so this becomes a test of who executes the same ideas better on the day.
What decides it
Marcus Thuram's 10.0% scoring probability is the highest in this fixture. Containing that output is Iraq's primary defensive task.
Off the pitch
Didier Deschamps (14 years in charge of France) vs Graham Arnold (1 years). That tenure gap shows up in squad familiarity and set-piece coordination.
The angle
The model gives Iraq just 7.3% to win. Every World Cup produces group-stage upsets; the question is whether this fixture is one of them.
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for France or Iraq.
- Stage:
- Group I · Matchday 2
- Date:
- 22 Jun
France and Iraq both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.
The model's style-matchup analysis nudges the forecast −0.1pp toward a draw, versus the baseline team-strength prior.
Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.
Chance-creation momentum
rolling 10-minute xG · delayedExpected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, France minus Iraq: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.
Live commentary & events
- 6'Yellow cardAmir Al-Ammari· FoulAmir Al-Ammari is booked — Foul.
- GoalKylian Mbappé· Michael OliseKylian Mbappé scores for France.14'
- 26'SubstitutionAymen Hussein· Ali Al-HamadiIraq change: Ali Al-Hamadi.
- 28'VAR reviewAli Al-HamadiVAR review under way.
- GoalKylian Mbappé· Ousmane DembéléKylian Mbappé scores for France.54'
- 60'SubstitutionZaid Tahseen· Rebin SulakaIraq change: Rebin Sulaka.
- 60'SubstitutionZaid Ismael· Youssef AmynIraq change: Youssef Amyn.
- GoalOusmane Dembélé· Michael OliseOusmane Dembélé scores for France.66'
- SubstitutionOusmane Dembélé· Désiré DoueFrance change: Désiré Doue.68'
- SubstitutionMichael Olise· Rayan CherkiFrance change: Rayan Cherki.68'
- 68'SubstitutionAmir Al-Ammari· Aimar SherIraq change: Aimar Sher.
- 69'SubstitutionIbrahim Bayesh· Marko FarjiIraq change: Marko Farji.
- SubstitutionBradley Barcola· Maghnes AklioucheFrance change: Maghnes Akliouche.83'
- SubstitutionJules Koundé· Malo GustoFrance change: Malo Gusto.83'
- SubstitutionKylian Mbappé· Marcus ThuramFrance change: Marcus Thuram.91'
Player involvement
France
Iraq
Pre-match forecast
goals
A probabilidade publicada para esta partida é fixada na confirmação das escalações (≈1 hora antes do início) e não se atualiza depois. É o número que a revisão pós-jogo cobra. A probabilidade de vitória ao vivo na seção Live é uma estimativa separada, com atraso e descritiva; ela não substitui a previsão publicada.
Most likely scorelines
- 2–017.8%
- 1–014.7%
- 3–014.1%
- 4–08.3%
- 2–16.9%
From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.