Group I · Matchday 2
← Previsão pré-jogoLive score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.
Match-outcome probability
- France win75.3%
- Draw18.9%
- Iraq win5.7%
Analysis
The model rates France as clear favourites at 75.3%, with Iraq at 5.7% and the draw at 18.9%. The Elo gap is substantial at 474 points in France's favour, reflecting a clear strength differential in recent form. In Group I, France are expected to advance (97.3%) while Iraq face a tighter path (12.9%) — this result could be decisive for Iraq's campaign.
Tactical matchup
Both sides share a balanced identity — expect a contest of execution within similar tactical frameworks.
Key battlegrounds
The individual battle features Marcus Thuram (P(scores) 9.3%) against Aymen Hussein (2.9%) — their impact could prove decisive.
Situational factors
France's Didier Deschamps (14.5 years in post) brings significantly more tenure than Graham Arnold (1.4 years) — squad cohesion and tactical familiarity may differ accordingly.
Match storyline
At 5.7%, an Iraq result would qualify as a genuine upset — the kind of group-stage surprise every World Cup produces. France enter as defending champions — every fixture carries the weight of that legacy.
Key numbers
Latest news & match context
- Stage:
- Group I · Matchday 2
Both sides face potential squad absences, which could influence the match outcome. Unlock the full breakdown with a Pass.
Calibração pós-jogo é gratuita. Quando este jogo terminar, a retrospectiva de previsão vs resultado — probabilidade pré-jogo vs resultado realizado, Brier score, log loss e xG final vs previsto — será publicada na página de retrospectiva, aberta para todos.
Standard Pass
That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.
The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.
Scoreline distribution
Half-time / full-time
Four models compared
Most likely scorers
Standard Pass
See exactly how France v Iraq plays out
The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.
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