Group G · Matchday 2
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Live descriptive stats
Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.
Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.
Analysis
How it plays out
Neither side has a rigid tactical identity. Both adapt to the opponent, so the first 15 minutes will reveal who imposes their plan first. Egypt will expect to hold 51% possession. New Zealand need their shape to stay compact without the ball and be clinical when they win it back.
What decides it
Egypt adjust shape to the opponent. That flexibility is an asset, but it takes longer to settle into a game. The scoring threat is evenly split: Mohamed Salah (13.5%) and Chris Wood (11.4%).
Off the pitch
No major off-pitch asymmetries. This one is decided by the football.
The angle
A Group G fixture where the result matters more for the standings than the headlines.
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Egypt or New Zealand.
- Stage:
- Group G · Matchday 2
- Date:
- 21 Jun
Egypt
Egypt come in at close to full strength.
New Zealand
New Zealand come in at close to full strength.
Egypt and New Zealand both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.
Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.
Chance-creation momentum
rolling 10-minute xG · delayedExpected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Egypt minus New Zealand: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.
Live commentary & events
- 15'GoalF. Surman· T. PayneF. Surman scores for New Zealand.
- Yellow cardM. Lasheen· RoughingM. Lasheen is booked — Roughing.17'
- 20'Yellow cardS. Singh· HoldingS. Singh is booked — Holding.
- 34'Yellow cardC. McCowatt· TrippingC. McCowatt is booked — Tripping.
- SubstitutionH. Fathy· R. RabiaEgypt change: R. Rabia.41'
- GoalM. Ziko· M. HanyM. Ziko scores for Egypt.58'
- 66'SubstitutionC. McCowatt· B. OldNew Zealand change: B. Old.
- GoalM. Salah· M. ZikoM. Salah scores for Egypt.67'
- 76'SubstitutionS. Singh· R. ThomasNew Zealand change: R. Thomas.
- 76'SubstitutionL. Cacace· J. RandallNew Zealand change: J. Randall.
- SubstitutionO. Marmoush· TrezeguetEgypt change: Trezeguet.76'
- SubstitutionM. Ziko· H. AbdelkarimEgypt change: H. Abdelkarim.76'
- GoalTrezeguet· M. SalahTrezeguet scores for Egypt.82'
- SubstitutionE. Ashour· ZizoEgypt change: Zizo.85'
- SubstitutionM. Salah· H. AbdelmaguidEgypt change: H. Abdelmaguid.85'
- 85'SubstitutionT. Payne· T. BindonNew Zealand change: T. Bindon.
- 85'SubstitutionE. Just· F. De VriesNew Zealand change: F. De Vries.
- SubstitutionH. Abdelmaguid· M. AbdelmonemEgypt change: M. Abdelmonem.90'+9
Player involvement
Egypt
New Zealand
Pre-match forecast
goals
The published probability for this fixture is fixed at lineup confirmation (≈1 hour before kickoff) and never updates afterwards. It is the number the post-match recap holds accountable. The live win probability in the Live section is a separate, delayed, descriptive estimate; it does not replace the published forecast.
Most likely scorelines
- 1–021.8%
- 0–018.1%
- 2–014.4%
- 1–110.9%
- 0–17.4%
From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.