Group G · Matchday 2
← Previsão pré-jogoLive score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.
Match-outcome probability
- Egypt win47.9%
- Draw29.0%
- New Zealand win23.1%
Analysis
The model gives Egypt a moderate advantage at 47.9% versus 23.1% for New Zealand (draw 29.0%). A 104-point Elo gap gives Egypt a measurable advantage, though the gap is narrow enough that a single result could close it. A Group G fixture with advance probabilities of 67.8% for Egypt and 20.9% for New Zealand.
Tactical matchup
Egypt (pragmatic) meet New Zealand (balanced) — contrasting tactical identities that should shape the contest. Egypt typically dominate possession (51%) compared to New Zealand's 44% — the ball-control asymmetry could define this match.
Key battlegrounds
Egypt adapt shape to the opponent — tactical flexibility gives them options but demands quick reads. The individual battle features Omar Marmoush (P(scores) 7.0%) against Chris Wood (11.8%) — their impact could prove decisive.
Situational factors
Injury watch: Egypt's Mohamed Salah is recovering — availability remains uncertain.
Match storyline
A Group G fixture that could shape the knockout-round picture for both sides.
Key numbers
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Egypt or New Zealand.
- Stage:
- Group G · Matchday 2
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Calibração pós-jogo é gratuita. Quando este jogo terminar, a retrospectiva de previsão vs resultado — probabilidade pré-jogo vs resultado realizado, Brier score, log loss e xG final vs previsto — será publicada na página de retrospectiva, aberta para todos.
Standard Pass
That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.
The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.
Scoreline distribution
Half-time / full-time
Four models compared
Most likely scorers
Standard Pass
See exactly how Egypt v New Zealand plays out
The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.
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