Group C · Matchday 2

Full-timeFT
Brazil
3:0
Haiti

The day's strongest pairing by combined FIFA ranking is free for everyone: full forecast and full live tracker. Every other match needs a Standard Pass. See the Pass

Live descriptive stats

BrazilHaiti
Expected goals (xG) — predicted vs actual
predictedactualdiff
Brazil3.911.50−2.41
Haiti0.420.25−0.17

Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.

Shots
8
8
Shots on target
5
3
Possession (%)
57%
43%
Corners
4
4
Fouls
13
15
Yellow cards
1
3
Red cards
0
0

Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.

Analysis

How it plays out

Brazil press high and force the tempo. Haiti's balanced setup needs to absorb that pressure early and find the right moments to play forward. Brazil will expect to hold 58% possession. Haiti need their shape to stay compact without the ball and be clinical when they win it back.

What decides it

Brazil press high (PPDA 17.1). If the press doesn't win the ball early, the space behind their back line becomes exposed. Raphinha's 14.4% scoring probability is the highest in this fixture. Containing that output is Haiti's primary defensive task.

Off the pitch

Brazil travel 6,482km, 3x Haiti's journey. Second-half fatigue is a real factor at that differential.

The angle

The model gives Haiti just 2.9% to win. Every World Cup produces group-stage upsets; the question is whether this fixture is one of them.

Latest news & match context

Team news
Match conditions
Stage:
Group C · Matchday 2
Date:
19 Jun
Availability

Brazil

Brazil come in at close to full strength.

Haiti

Haiti come in at close to full strength.

What it means

Brazil and Haiti both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.

Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.

LiveDescriptive stats and the delayed live win probability · updates every ~30 seconds

Chance-creation momentum

rolling 10-minute xG · delayed
Brazil (above the line)Haiti (below)
15'30'HT60'75'Goal, 23' · M. CunhaGoal, 36' · M. CunhaGoal, 45' · Vinicius Junior

Expected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Brazil minus Haiti: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.

Live commentary & events

BrazilHaiti
  • 4'Yellow cardC. Arcus· RoughingC. Arcus is booked — Roughing.
  • GoalM. CunhaM. Cunha scores for Brazil.23'
  • GoalM. Cunha· Vinicius JuniorM. Cunha scores for Brazil.36'
  • SubstitutionRaphinha· RayanBrazil change: Rayan.40'
  • GoalVinicius Junior· Lucas PaquetaVinicius Junior scores for Brazil.45'+3
  • 45'+4Yellow cardF. Pierrot· ElbowingF. Pierrot is booked — Elbowing.
  • 46'SubstitutionC. Arcus· D. SimonHaiti change: D. Simon.
  • 46'SubstitutionF. Pierrot· W. IsidorHaiti change: W. Isidor.
  • 62'SubstitutionJ. Casimir· L. DeedsonHaiti change: L. Deedson.
  • SubstitutionLucas Paqueta· G. MartinelliBrazil change: G. Martinelli.64'
  • SubstitutionM. Cunha· EndrickBrazil change: Endrick.64'
  • Yellow cardDouglas Santos· RoughingDouglas Santos is booked — Roughing.65'
  • 71'SubstitutionR. Providence· L. JosephHaiti change: L. Joseph.
  • 72'Yellow cardD. Jean Jacques· RoughingD. Jean Jacques is booked — Roughing.
  • SubstitutionVinicius Junior· Danilo SantosBrazil change: Danilo Santos.81'
  • SubstitutionBruno Guimaraes· EdersonBrazil change: Ederson.81'
  • 81'SubstitutionJ. Bellegarde· D. EtienneHaiti change: D. Etienne.

Player involvement

Brazil

M. Cunha23' Goal · 36' Goal · 64' On
AVinicius Junior36' Assist · 45'+3 Goal · 81' On
ALucas Paqueta45'+3 Assist · 64' On
Douglas Santos65' Yellow card

Haiti

C. Arcus4' Yellow card · 46' On
F. Pierrot45'+4 Yellow card · 46' On
D. Jean Jacques72' Yellow card
Pre-match modelFrozen before kickoff

Pre-match forecast

Brazil win
87.6%
Draw
12.1%
Haiti win
0.4%
Brazil
3.91
expected
goals
Haiti
0.42

The published probability for this fixture is fixed at lineup confirmation (≈1 hour before kickoff) and never updates afterwards. It is the number the post-match recap holds accountable. The live win probability in the Live section is a separate, delayed, descriptive estimate; it does not replace the published forecast.

Most likely scorelines

  • 3–0
    13.1%
  • 4–0
    12.9%
  • 5–0
    10.1%
  • 2–0
    10.0%
  • 6–0
    6.6%

From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.

Post-match calibration

3 – 0
Brazil win

Pre-match probability vs realised outcome

  • Brazil win· realised
    86.9%
  • Draw
    11.3%
  • Haiti win
    1.8%
Brier score
0.030
Log loss
0.140
xG (final / predicted)
1.50 / 3.83 · Brazil
0.25 / 0.37 · Haiti
P(realised outcome)
86.9%

Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.

Full forecast-vs-result recap →

How the live probability works. The published pre-match forecast is frozen at the T-1h lineup-confirmation pass and never changes after kickoff; the post-match recap scores that frozen number against the result. The live win probability shown during play is the same model re-read against the current score and time remaining. It refreshes about once a minute, is always delayed, and is a descriptive research figure, not a betting product or a price of any kind. See /docs/methodology/ for the full framing.