Group C · Matchday 2
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Live descriptive stats
Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.
Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.
Analysis
How it plays out
Brazil press high and force the tempo. Haiti's balanced setup needs to absorb that pressure early and find the right moments to play forward. Brazil will expect to hold 58% possession. Haiti need their shape to stay compact without the ball and be clinical when they win it back.
What decides it
Brazil press high (PPDA 17.1). If the press doesn't win the ball early, the space behind their back line becomes exposed. Raphinha's 14.4% scoring probability is the highest in this fixture. Containing that output is Haiti's primary defensive task.
Off the pitch
Brazil travel 6,482km, 3x Haiti's journey. Second-half fatigue is a real factor at that differential.
The angle
The model gives Haiti just 2.9% to win. Every World Cup produces group-stage upsets; the question is whether this fixture is one of them.
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Brazil or Haiti.
- Stage:
- Group C · Matchday 2
- Date:
- 19 Jun
Brazil and Haiti both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.
Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.
Chance-creation momentum
rolling 10-minute xG · delayedExpected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Brazil minus Haiti: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.
Live commentary & events
- 4'Yellow cardC. Arcus· RoughingC. Arcus is booked — Roughing.
- GoalM. CunhaM. Cunha scores for Brazil.23'
- GoalM. Cunha· Vinicius JuniorM. Cunha scores for Brazil.36'
- SubstitutionRaphinha· RayanBrazil change: Rayan.40'
- GoalVinicius Junior· Lucas PaquetaVinicius Junior scores for Brazil.45'+3
- 45'+4Yellow cardF. Pierrot· ElbowingF. Pierrot is booked — Elbowing.
- 46'SubstitutionC. Arcus· D. SimonHaiti change: D. Simon.
- 46'SubstitutionF. Pierrot· W. IsidorHaiti change: W. Isidor.
- 62'SubstitutionJ. Casimir· L. DeedsonHaiti change: L. Deedson.
- SubstitutionLucas Paqueta· G. MartinelliBrazil change: G. Martinelli.64'
- SubstitutionM. Cunha· EndrickBrazil change: Endrick.64'
- Yellow cardDouglas Santos· RoughingDouglas Santos is booked — Roughing.65'
- 71'SubstitutionR. Providence· L. JosephHaiti change: L. Joseph.
- 72'Yellow cardD. Jean Jacques· RoughingD. Jean Jacques is booked — Roughing.
- SubstitutionVinicius Junior· Danilo SantosBrazil change: Danilo Santos.81'
- SubstitutionBruno Guimaraes· EdersonBrazil change: Ederson.81'
- 81'SubstitutionJ. Bellegarde· D. EtienneHaiti change: D. Etienne.
Player involvement
Brazil
Haiti
Pre-match forecast
goals
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Most likely scorelines
- 3–013.1%
- 4–012.9%
- 5–010.1%
- 2–010.0%
- 6–06.6%
From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.
Post-match calibration
Pre-match probability vs realised outcome
- Brazil win· realised86.9%
- Draw11.3%
- Haiti win1.8%
Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.