Group C · Matchday 2

Full-timeFT
Brazil
3:0
Haiti

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Live descriptive stats

BrazilHaiti
Expected goals (xG) — predicted vs actual
predictedactualdiff
Brazil3.911.50−2.41
Haiti0.420.25−0.17

Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.

Shots
8
8
Shots on target
5
3
Possession (%)
57%
43%
Corners
4
4
Fouls
13
15
Yellow cards
1
3
Red cards
0
0

Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.

Analysis

How it plays out

Brazil press high and force the tempo. Haiti's balanced setup needs to absorb that pressure early and find the right moments to play forward. Brazil will expect to hold 58% possession. Haiti need their shape to stay compact without the ball and be clinical when they win it back.

What decides it

Brazil press high (PPDA 17.1). If the press doesn't win the ball early, the space behind their back line becomes exposed. Raphinha's 14.4% scoring probability is the highest in this fixture. Containing that output is Haiti's primary defensive task.

Off the pitch

Brazil travel 6,482km, 3x Haiti's journey. Second-half fatigue is a real factor at that differential.

The angle

The model gives Haiti just 2.9% to win. Every World Cup produces group-stage upsets; the question is whether this fixture is one of them.

Latest news & match context

Team news

No recent headlines for Brazil or Haiti.

Match conditions
Stage:
Group C · Matchday 2
Date:
19 Jun
Availability

Brazil

Brazil come in at close to full strength.

Haiti

Haiti come in at close to full strength.

What it means

Brazil and Haiti both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.

Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.

En vivoEstadísticas descriptivas y la probabilidad de victoria en vivo (con retraso) · se actualiza cada ~30 segundos

Chance-creation momentum

rolling 10-minute xG · delayed
Brazil (above the line)Haiti (below)
15'30'HT60'75'Goal, 23' · M. CunhaGoal, 36' · M. CunhaGoal, 45' · Vinicius Junior

Expected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Brazil minus Haiti: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.

Live commentary & events

BrazilHaiti
  • 4'Yellow cardC. Arcus· RoughingC. Arcus is booked — Roughing.
  • GoalM. CunhaM. Cunha scores for Brazil.23'
  • GoalM. Cunha· Vinicius JuniorM. Cunha scores for Brazil.36'
  • SubstitutionRaphinha· RayanBrazil change: Rayan.40'
  • GoalVinicius Junior· Lucas PaquetaVinicius Junior scores for Brazil.45'+3
  • 45'+4Yellow cardF. Pierrot· ElbowingF. Pierrot is booked — Elbowing.
  • 46'SubstitutionC. Arcus· D. SimonHaiti change: D. Simon.
  • 46'SubstitutionF. Pierrot· W. IsidorHaiti change: W. Isidor.
  • 62'SubstitutionJ. Casimir· L. DeedsonHaiti change: L. Deedson.
  • SubstitutionLucas Paqueta· G. MartinelliBrazil change: G. Martinelli.64'
  • SubstitutionM. Cunha· EndrickBrazil change: Endrick.64'
  • Yellow cardDouglas Santos· RoughingDouglas Santos is booked — Roughing.65'
  • 71'SubstitutionR. Providence· L. JosephHaiti change: L. Joseph.
  • 72'Yellow cardD. Jean Jacques· RoughingD. Jean Jacques is booked — Roughing.
  • SubstitutionVinicius Junior· Danilo SantosBrazil change: Danilo Santos.81'
  • SubstitutionBruno Guimaraes· EdersonBrazil change: Ederson.81'
  • 81'SubstitutionJ. Bellegarde· D. EtienneHaiti change: D. Etienne.

Player involvement

Brazil

M. Cunha23' Goal · 36' Goal · 64' On
AVinicius Junior36' Assist · 45'+3 Goal · 81' On
ALucas Paqueta45'+3 Assist · 64' On
Douglas Santos65' Yellow card

Haiti

C. Arcus4' Yellow card · 46' On
F. Pierrot45'+4 Yellow card · 46' On
D. Jean Jacques72' Yellow card
Modelo previo al partidoCongelado antes del saque inicial

Pre-match forecast

Brazil win
87.7%
Draw
12.0%
Haiti win
0.3%
Brazil
3.91
expected
goals
Haiti
0.42

La probabilidad publicada para este partido queda fijada al confirmarse las alineaciones (≈1 hora antes del inicio) y no se actualiza después. Es el número al que el repaso posterior pide cuentas. La probabilidad de victoria en vivo de la sección Live es una estimación separada, con retraso y descriptiva; no sustituye al pronóstico publicado.

Most likely scorelines

  • 3–0
    13.1%
  • 4–0
    12.9%
  • 5–0
    10.1%
  • 2–0
    10.0%
  • 6–0
    6.6%

From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.

Post-match calibration

3 – 0
Brazil win

Pre-match probability vs realised outcome

  • Brazil win· realised
    86.9%
  • Draw
    11.3%
  • Haiti win
    1.8%
Brier score
0.030
Log loss
0.140
xG (final / predicted)
1.50 / 3.83 · Brazil
0.25 / 0.37 · Haiti
P(realised outcome)
86.9%

Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.

Resumen completo de pronóstico frente a resultado →

Cómo funciona la probabilidad en vivo. El pronóstico previo publicado se congela en el cierre de alineaciones (T-1h) y no cambia tras el inicio; el repaso posterior evalúa ese número congelado frente al resultado. La probabilidad de victoria en vivo que se muestra durante el juego es el mismo modelo, releído según el marcador y el tiempo restante. Se actualiza más o menos una vez por minuto, siempre con retraso, y es una cifra descriptiva de investigación, no un producto de juego ni un precio de ningún tipo. Consulta /docs/methodology/ para el marco completo.