Group C · Matchday 2

Full-timeFT
Brazil
3:0
Haiti

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Live descriptive stats

BrazilHaiti
Expected goals (xG) — predicted vs actual
predictedactualdiff
Brazil3.911.50−2.41
Haiti0.420.25−0.17

Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.

Shots
8
8
Shots on target
5
3
Possession (%)
57%
43%
Corners
4
4
Fouls
13
15
Yellow cards
1
3
Red cards
0
0

Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.

Analysis

How it plays out

Brazil press high and force the tempo. Haiti's balanced setup needs to absorb that pressure early and find the right moments to play forward. Brazil will expect to hold 58% possession. Haiti need their shape to stay compact without the ball and be clinical when they win it back.

What decides it

Brazil press high (PPDA 17.1). If the press doesn't win the ball early, the space behind their back line becomes exposed. Raphinha's 14.4% scoring probability is the highest in this fixture. Containing that output is Haiti's primary defensive task.

Off the pitch

Brazil travel 6,482km, 3x Haiti's journey. Second-half fatigue is a real factor at that differential.

The angle

The model gives Haiti just 2.9% to win. Every World Cup produces group-stage upsets; the question is whether this fixture is one of them.

Latest news & match context

Team news

No recent headlines for Brazil or Haiti.

Match conditions
Stage:
Group C · Matchday 2
Date:
19 Jun
Availability

Brazil

Brazil come in at close to full strength.

Haiti

Haiti come in at close to full strength.

What it means

Brazil and Haiti both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.

Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.

ライブ記述的スタッツと遅延付きライブ勝利確率 · 約30秒ごとに更新

Chance-creation momentum

rolling 10-minute xG · delayed
Brazil (above the line)Haiti (below)
15'30'HT60'75'Goal, 23' · M. CunhaGoal, 36' · M. CunhaGoal, 45' · Vinicius Junior

Expected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Brazil minus Haiti: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.

Live commentary & events

BrazilHaiti
  • 4'Yellow cardC. Arcus· RoughingC. Arcus is booked — Roughing.
  • GoalM. CunhaM. Cunha scores for Brazil.23'
  • GoalM. Cunha· Vinicius JuniorM. Cunha scores for Brazil.36'
  • SubstitutionRaphinha· RayanBrazil change: Rayan.40'
  • GoalVinicius Junior· Lucas PaquetaVinicius Junior scores for Brazil.45'+3
  • 45'+4Yellow cardF. Pierrot· ElbowingF. Pierrot is booked — Elbowing.
  • 46'SubstitutionC. Arcus· D. SimonHaiti change: D. Simon.
  • 46'SubstitutionF. Pierrot· W. IsidorHaiti change: W. Isidor.
  • 62'SubstitutionJ. Casimir· L. DeedsonHaiti change: L. Deedson.
  • SubstitutionLucas Paqueta· G. MartinelliBrazil change: G. Martinelli.64'
  • SubstitutionM. Cunha· EndrickBrazil change: Endrick.64'
  • Yellow cardDouglas Santos· RoughingDouglas Santos is booked — Roughing.65'
  • 71'SubstitutionR. Providence· L. JosephHaiti change: L. Joseph.
  • 72'Yellow cardD. Jean Jacques· RoughingD. Jean Jacques is booked — Roughing.
  • SubstitutionVinicius Junior· Danilo SantosBrazil change: Danilo Santos.81'
  • SubstitutionBruno Guimaraes· EdersonBrazil change: Ederson.81'
  • 81'SubstitutionJ. Bellegarde· D. EtienneHaiti change: D. Etienne.

Player involvement

Brazil

M. Cunha23' Goal · 36' Goal · 64' On
AVinicius Junior36' Assist · 45'+3 Goal · 81' On
ALucas Paqueta45'+3 Assist · 64' On
Douglas Santos65' Yellow card

Haiti

C. Arcus4' Yellow card · 46' On
F. Pierrot45'+4 Yellow card · 46' On
D. Jean Jacques72' Yellow card
試合前モデルキックオフ前に固定

Pre-match forecast

Brazil win
87.7%
Draw
12.0%
Haiti win
0.3%
Brazil
3.91
expected
goals
Haiti
0.42

この試合の公開確率はスタメン確定時（キックオフ約1時間前）に固定され、その後は更新されません。試合後の振り返りが照合するのはこの数値です。ライブセクションのライブ勝利確率は別枠の遅延付き・記述的な推定値で、公開済みの予測に取って代わるものではありません。

Most likely scorelines

  • 3–0
    13.1%
  • 4–0
    12.9%
  • 5–0
    10.1%
  • 2–0
    10.0%
  • 6–0
    6.6%

From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.

Post-match calibration

3 – 0
Brazil win

Pre-match probability vs realised outcome

  • Brazil win· realised
    86.9%
  • Draw
    11.3%
  • Haiti win
    1.8%
Brier score
0.030
Log loss
0.140
xG (final / predicted)
1.50 / 3.83 · Brazil
0.25 / 0.37 · Haiti
P(realised outcome)
86.9%

Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.

予測 vs 結果の完全な振り返り →

ライブ確率の仕組み。 公開済みの試合前予測はスタメン確定（T-1h）時点で凍結され、キックオフ後は変わりません。試合後の振り返りでは、この凍結された数値を結果と照合します。試合中に表示されるライブ勝利確率は、同じモデルを現在のスコアと残り時間に合わせて読み直したものです。約1分ごとに更新され、常に遅延があり、記述的なリサーチ数値であって、遊技商品でも何らかの価格でもありません。全体の枠組みは /docs/methodology/ を参照してください。