Group A · Matchday 1

Full-timeFT
South Korea
2:1
Czech Republic

The day's strongest pairing by combined FIFA ranking is free for everyone: full forecast and full live tracker. Every other match needs a Standard Pass. See the Pass

Live descriptive stats

South KoreaCzech Republic
Expected goals (xG) — predicted vs actual
predictedactualdiff
South Korea1.122.00+0.88
Czech Republic1.170.84−0.33

Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.

Shots
15
8
Shots on target
6
4
Possession (%)
62%
38%
Corners
4
5
Fouls
9
16
Yellow cards
1
0
Red cards
0
0

Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.

Analysis

How it plays out

Both sides run a counter attacker system, so this becomes a test of who executes the same ideas better on the day. Czech Republic's aggressive press (PPDA 20.4) against South Korea's deeper build-up (PPDA 25.0) creates a clear territory question: can Czech Republic force errors high up, or will South Korea play through the press and find space behind it?

What decides it

Both sides run the same system (counter attacker), so execution quality separates them, not tactical asymmetry. Son Heung-min carries the marginally higher scoring probability (11.9% vs 6.6%).

Off the pitch

No major off-pitch asymmetries. This one is decided by the football.

The angle

Likely the last World Cup for Kim Seung-gyu. Tournament experience at this level is hard to quantify but hard to replace.

Latest news & match context

Team news

No recent headlines for South Korea or Czech Republic.

Match conditions
Stage:
Group A · Matchday 1
Date:
11 Jun
Availability

South Korea

South Korea come in at close to full strength.

Czech Republic

Czech Republic come in at close to full strength.

What it means

South Korea and Czech Republic both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.

Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.

LiveDescriptive stats and the delayed live win probability · updates every ~30 seconds

Live commentary & events

South KoreaCzech Republic
  • 59'GoalL. Krejci· V. CoufalL. Krejci scores for Czech Republic.
  • SubstitutionLee Jae-Sung· Hwang Hee-ChanSouth Korea change: Hwang Hee-Chan.62'
  • 64'SubstitutionP. Sulc· A. HlozekCzech Republic change: A. Hlozek.
  • 64'SubstitutionP. Schick· T. ChoryCzech Republic change: T. Chory.
  • 64'SubstitutionL. Provod· M. SadilekCzech Republic change: M. Sadilek.
  • GoalHwang In-Beom· Lee Kang-InHwang In-Beom scores for South Korea.67'
  • SubstitutionLee Tae-Seok· Eom Ji-SungSouth Korea change: Eom Ji-Sung.69'
  • SubstitutionSon Heung-Min· Oh Hyeon-GyuSouth Korea change: Oh Hyeon-Gyu.69'
  • 77'VAR reviewT. SoucekVAR review under way.
  • GoalOh Hyeon-Gyu· Hwang In-BeomOh Hyeon-Gyu scores for South Korea.80'
  • SubstitutionHwang In-Beom· Kim Jin-GyuSouth Korea change: Kim Jin-Gyu.84'
  • SubstitutionPaik Seung-Ho· Park Jin-SeobSouth Korea change: Park Jin-Seob.84'
  • 84'SubstitutionA. Sojka· M. ChytilCzech Republic change: M. Chytil.
  • Yellow cardLee Gi-Hyuk· RoughingLee Gi-Hyuk is booked — Roughing.90'+6

Player involvement

South Korea

AHwang In-Beom67' Goal · 80' Assist · 84' On
Oh Hyeon-Gyu69' Off · 80' Goal
ALee Kang-In67' Assist
Lee Gi-Hyuk90'+6 Yellow card

Czech Republic

L. Krejci59' Goal
AV. Coufal59' Assist
Pre-match modelFrozen before kickoff

Pre-match forecast

South Korea win
34.4%
Draw
26.8%
Czech Republic win
38.8%
South Korea
1.12
expected
goals
Czech Republic
1.17

The published probability for this fixture is fixed at lineup confirmation (≈1 hour before kickoff) and never updates afterwards. It is the number the post-match recap holds accountable. The live win probability in the Live section is a separate, delayed, descriptive estimate; it does not replace the published forecast.

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–1
    14.1%
  • 0–1
    11.0%
  • 0–0
    10.9%
  • 1–0
    10.5%
  • 1–2
    7.8%

From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.

Post-match calibration

2 – 1
South Korea win

Pre-match probability vs realised outcome

  • South Korea win· realised
    40.1%
  • Draw
    26.5%
  • Czech Republic win
    33.4%
Brier score
0.540
Log loss
0.914
xG (final / predicted)
2.00 / 1.09 · South Korea
0.84 / 1.21 · Czech Republic
P(realised outcome)
40.1%

Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.

Full forecast-vs-result recap →

How the live probability works. The published pre-match forecast is frozen at the T-1h lineup-confirmation pass and never changes after kickoff; the post-match recap scores that frozen number against the result. The live win probability shown during play is the same model re-read against the current score and time remaining. It refreshes about once a minute, is always delayed, and is a descriptive research figure, not a betting product or a price of any kind. See /docs/methodology/ for the full framing.