Group A · Matchday 1

← Previsão pré-jogo
Scheduled
South Korea
–:–
Czech Republic

Live score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.

Match-outcome probability

  • South Korea win
    40.1%
  • Draw
    26.5%
  • Czech Republic win
    33.4%
CalibrationBacktested to a 0.572 Brier score across 987 out-of-sample major-tournament matches (2014–2024): lower is better, and a no-skill 1-in-3 guess scores 0.667. In plain terms, outcomes the model rated 70% likely happened about 70% of the time. Live scoring begins 2026-06-11. See the scoreboard →

Analysis

South Korea carry a slight probability advantage at 40.1% versus 33.4% for Czech Republic (draw 26.5%). The Elo ratings are within 26 points of each other — a tight matchup on recent form. A Group A fixture with advance probabilities of 75.9% for South Korea and 75.8% for Czech Republic.

Tactical matchup

Both sides share a counter attacker identity — expect a contest of execution within similar tactical frameworks. Czech Republic press significantly higher (PPDA 20.4) — their ability to force turnovers in advanced positions will be a key tactical dynamic.

Key battlegrounds

South Korea will look to stay compact and strike on the transition — defensive discipline is non-negotiable. Czech Republic will look to stay compact and strike on the transition — defensive discipline is non-negotiable. The individual battle features Son Heung-min (P(scores) 11.9%) against Patrik Schick (6.7%) — their impact could prove decisive. Czech Republic play a more direct game while South Korea build more patiently — the tempo battle will shape whether this is an end-to-end contest or a methodical arm-wrestle.

Situational factors

No major situational asymmetries — both sides enter on a broadly level playing field outside the tactical matchup.

Match storyline

For Kim Seung-gyu, this may be among the final World Cup fixtures — experience and composure on the biggest stage.

Key numbers

40.1% / 26.5% / 33.4%H / D / ACalibrated ensemble probability
+26Elo differentialSouth Korea 1752 vs Czech Republic 1726
1.09 – 1.21Expected goals (H – A)Dixon-Coles per-team rates
1-1 (13.8%)Modal scorelineMost likely exact full-time result
47.3%Both teams scoreP(both sides find the net)
11.9%P(goal) — Son Heung-minHighest anytime-scorer probability in fixture

Latest news & match context

Team news
Match conditions
Stage:
Group A · Matchday 1

Both sides contend with multiple squad concerns ahead of this fixture; unlock the full breakdown with a Pass.

Calibração pós-jogo é gratuita. Quando este jogo terminar, a retrospectiva de previsão vs resultado — probabilidade pré-jogo vs resultado realizado, Brier score, log loss e xG final vs previsto — será publicada na página de retrospectiva, aberta para todos.

Standard Pass

That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.

The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.

Scoreline distribution

Half-time / full-time

Four models compared

Most likely scorers

Standard Pass

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The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.

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Como funciona a probabilidade ao vivo. A previsão pré-jogo publicada é congelada no fechamento das escalações (T-1h) e não muda após o início; a revisão pós-jogo avalia esse número congelado frente ao resultado. A probabilidade de vitória ao vivo mostrada durante a partida é o mesmo modelo, relido conforme o placar e o tempo restante. Atualiza mais ou menos uma vez por minuto, está sempre com atraso e é um número descritivo de pesquisa, não um produto de jogos nem um preço de qualquer tipo. Veja /docs/methodology/ para o enquadramento completo.