Group A · Matchday 1
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Live descriptive stats
Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.
Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.
Analysis
How it plays out
Both sides run a counter attacker system, so this becomes a test of who executes the same ideas better on the day. Czech Republic's aggressive press (PPDA 20.4) against South Korea's deeper build-up (PPDA 25.0) creates a clear territory question: can Czech Republic force errors high up, or will South Korea play through the press and find space behind it?
What decides it
Both sides run the same system (counter attacker), so execution quality separates them, not tactical asymmetry. Son Heung-min carries the marginally higher scoring probability (11.9% vs 6.6%).
Off the pitch
No major off-pitch asymmetries. This one is decided by the football.
The angle
Likely the last World Cup for Kim Seung-gyu. Tournament experience at this level is hard to quantify but hard to replace.
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for South Korea or Czech Republic.
- Stage:
- Group A · Matchday 1
- Date:
- 11 Jun
South Korea
South Korea come in at close to full strength.
Czech Republic
Czech Republic come in at close to full strength.
South Korea and Czech Republic both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.
Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.
Live commentary & events
- 59'GoalL. Krejci· V. CoufalL. Krejci scores for Czech Republic.
- SubstitutionLee Jae-Sung· Hwang Hee-ChanSouth Korea change: Hwang Hee-Chan.62'
- 64'SubstitutionP. Sulc· A. HlozekCzech Republic change: A. Hlozek.
- 64'SubstitutionP. Schick· T. ChoryCzech Republic change: T. Chory.
- 64'SubstitutionL. Provod· M. SadilekCzech Republic change: M. Sadilek.
- GoalHwang In-Beom· Lee Kang-InHwang In-Beom scores for South Korea.67'
- SubstitutionLee Tae-Seok· Eom Ji-SungSouth Korea change: Eom Ji-Sung.69'
- SubstitutionSon Heung-Min· Oh Hyeon-GyuSouth Korea change: Oh Hyeon-Gyu.69'
- 77'VAR reviewT. SoucekVAR review under way.
- GoalOh Hyeon-Gyu· Hwang In-BeomOh Hyeon-Gyu scores for South Korea.80'
- SubstitutionHwang In-Beom· Kim Jin-GyuSouth Korea change: Kim Jin-Gyu.84'
- SubstitutionPaik Seung-Ho· Park Jin-SeobSouth Korea change: Park Jin-Seob.84'
- 84'SubstitutionA. Sojka· M. ChytilCzech Republic change: M. Chytil.
- Yellow cardLee Gi-Hyuk· RoughingLee Gi-Hyuk is booked — Roughing.90'+6
Player involvement
South Korea
Czech Republic
Pre-match forecast
goals
Die veröffentlichte Wahrscheinlichkeit für dieses Spiel wird bei der Aufstellungsbestätigung (≈1 Stunde vor Anpfiff) festgeschrieben und ändert sich danach nicht mehr. An dieser Zahl wird der Rückblick nach Abpfiff gemessen. Die Live-Siegwahrscheinlichkeit im Live-Bereich ist eine separate, verzögerte, beschreibende Schätzung; sie ersetzt die veröffentlichte Prognose nicht.
Most likely scorelines
- 1–114.1%
- 0–111.0%
- 0–010.9%
- 1–010.5%
- 1–27.8%
From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.
Post-match calibration
Pre-match probability vs realised outcome
- South Korea win· realised40.1%
- Draw26.5%
- Czech Republic win33.4%
Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.