Group A · Matchday 1

← Vor-Spiel-Prognose
Scheduled
South Korea
–:–
Czech Republic

Live score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.

Match-outcome probability

  • South Korea win
    40.1%
  • Draw
    26.5%
  • Czech Republic win
    33.4%
CalibrationBacktested to a 0.572 Brier score across 987 out-of-sample major-tournament matches (2014–2024): lower is better, and a no-skill 1-in-3 guess scores 0.667. In plain terms, outcomes the model rated 70% likely happened about 70% of the time. Live scoring begins 2026-06-11. See the scoreboard →

Analysis

South Korea carry a slight probability advantage at 40.1% versus 33.4% for Czech Republic (draw 26.5%). The Elo ratings are within 26 points of each other — a tight matchup on recent form. A Group A fixture with advance probabilities of 75.9% for South Korea and 75.8% for Czech Republic.

Tactical matchup

Both sides share a counter attacker identity — expect a contest of execution within similar tactical frameworks. Czech Republic press significantly higher (PPDA 20.4) — their ability to force turnovers in advanced positions will be a key tactical dynamic.

Key battlegrounds

South Korea will look to stay compact and strike on the transition — defensive discipline is non-negotiable. Czech Republic will look to stay compact and strike on the transition — defensive discipline is non-negotiable. The individual battle features Son Heung-min (P(scores) 11.9%) against Patrik Schick (6.7%) — their impact could prove decisive. Czech Republic play a more direct game while South Korea build more patiently — the tempo battle will shape whether this is an end-to-end contest or a methodical arm-wrestle.

Situational factors

No major situational asymmetries — both sides enter on a broadly level playing field outside the tactical matchup.

Match storyline

For Kim Seung-gyu, this may be among the final World Cup fixtures — experience and composure on the biggest stage.

Key numbers

40.1% / 26.5% / 33.4%H / D / ACalibrated ensemble probability
+26Elo differentialSouth Korea 1752 vs Czech Republic 1726
1.09 – 1.21Expected goals (H – A)Dixon-Coles per-team rates
1-1 (13.8%)Modal scorelineMost likely exact full-time result
47.3%Both teams scoreP(both sides find the net)
11.9%P(goal) — Son Heung-minHighest anytime-scorer probability in fixture

Latest news & match context

Team news
Match conditions
Stage:
Group A · Matchday 1

Both sides contend with multiple squad concerns ahead of this fixture; unlock the full breakdown with a Pass.

Die Kalibrierung nach Abpfiff ist kostenlos. Wenn dieses Spiel endet, wird die Zusammenfassung Prognose vs. Ergebnis veröffentlicht: Vor-Spiel-Wahrscheinlichkeit gegenüber dem tatsächlichen Ausgang, Brier score, Log Loss und finale xG vs. prognostizierte xG, auf der Zusammenfassungsseite, offen für alle.

Standard Pass

That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.

The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.

Scoreline distribution

Half-time / full-time

Four models compared

Most likely scorers

Standard Pass

See exactly how South Korea v Czech Republic plays out

The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.

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So funktioniert die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit. Die veröffentlichte Vorab-Prognose wird beim Aufstellungs-Lock (T-1h) eingefroren und ändert sich nach Anpfiff nicht mehr; der Rückblick nach Abpfiff bewertet diese eingefrorene Zahl am Ergebnis. Die während des Spiels gezeigte Live-Siegwahrscheinlichkeit ist dasselbe Modell, neu ausgelesen anhand von Spielstand und Restzeit. Sie aktualisiert sich etwa einmal pro Minute, ist immer verzögert und ist eine beschreibende Forschungsgröße, kein Wettprodukt und kein Preis irgendeiner Art. Siehe /docs/methodology/ für die vollständige Einordnung.