Group A · Matchday 1

Full-timeFT
Mexico
2:0
South Africa

The day's strongest pairing by combined FIFA ranking is free for everyone: full forecast and full live tracker. Every other match needs a Standard Pass. See the Pass

Live descriptive stats

MexicoSouth Africa
Expected goals (xG) — predicted vs actual
predictedactualdiff
Mexico1.301.41+0.11
South Africa0.590.07−0.52

Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.

Shots
16
3
Shots on target
4
2
Possession (%)
61%
39%
Corners
3
1
Fouls
12
11
Yellow cards
1
2
Red cards
1
2

Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.

Analysis

How it plays out

Mexico press high and force the tempo. South Africa's balanced setup needs to absorb that pressure early and find the right moments to play forward. Mexico's aggressive press (PPDA 16.1) against South Africa's deeper build-up (PPDA 23.9) creates a clear territory question: can Mexico force errors high up, or will South Africa play through the press and find space behind it?

What decides it

Mexico press high (PPDA 16.1). If the press doesn't win the ball early, the space behind their back line becomes exposed. Raúl Jiménez's 8.8% scoring probability is the highest in this fixture. Containing that output is South Africa's primary defensive task.

Off the pitch

South Africa travel 14,106km while Mexico are essentially at home. That journey shows up in second-half intensity. Hugo Broos (5 years in charge of South Africa) vs Javier Aguirre (2 years). That tenure gap shows up in squad familiarity and set-piece coordination.

The angle

The model's 42nd-ranked side against the 19thth. Group stages reward the underdog who executes a clear plan.

Latest news & match context

Team news

No recent headlines for Mexico or South Africa.

Match conditions
Stage:
Group A · Matchday 1
Date:
11 Jun
Availability

Mexico

Mexico come in at close to full strength.

South Africa

South Africa come in at close to full strength.

What it means

Mexico and South Africa both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.

Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.

LiveDescriptive stats and the delayed live win probability · updates every ~30 seconds

Live commentary & events

MexicoSouth Africa
  • GoalJ. Quinones· E. LiraJ. Quinones scores for Mexico.9'
  • 17'Yellow cardT. Mokoena· TrippingT. Mokoena is booked — Tripping.
  • Yellow cardB. Gutierrez· TrippingB. Gutierrez is booked — Tripping.23'
  • 49'Red cardY. Sithole· TrippingY. Sithole is sent off — Tripping.
  • 56'SubstitutionL. Foster· T. MbathaSouth Africa change: T. Mbatha.
  • 61'SubstitutionJ. Adams· T. ZwaneSouth Africa change: T. Zwane.
  • SubstitutionB. Gutierrez· L. ChavezMexico change: L. Chavez.66'
  • SubstitutionA. Fidalgo· G. MoraMexico change: G. Mora.66'
  • GoalR. Jimenez· R. AlvaradoR. Jimenez scores for Mexico.67'
  • 74'Yellow cardN. Sibisi· RoughingN. Sibisi is booked — Roughing.
  • SubstitutionE. Lira· E. AlvarezMexico change: E. Alvarez.76'
  • SubstitutionR. Jimenez· A. GonzalezMexico change: A. Gonzalez.76'
  • 77'SubstitutionI. Rayners· E. MakgopaSouth Africa change: E. Makgopa.
  • 77'SubstitutionA. Modiba· O. AppollisSouth Africa change: O. Appollis.
  • SubstitutionJ. Quinones· A. VegaMexico change: A. Vega.79'
  • 84'Red cardT. Zwane· ElbowingT. Zwane is sent off — Elbowing.
  • Red cardC. Montes· TrippingC. Montes is sent off — Tripping.90'+2

Player involvement

Mexico

J. Quinones9' Goal · 79' On
R. Jimenez67' Goal · 76' On
AE. Lira9' Assist · 76' On
AR. Alvarado67' Assist
C. Montes90'+2 Red card
B. Gutierrez23' Yellow card · 66' On

South Africa

Y. Sithole49' Red card
T. Zwane61' Off · 84' Red card
T. Mokoena17' Yellow card
N. Sibisi74' Yellow card
Pre-match modelFrozen before kickoff

Pre-match forecast

Mexico win
56.9%
Draw
30.5%
South Africa win
12.6%
Mexico
1.30
expected
goals
South Africa
0.59

The published probability for this fixture is fixed at lineup confirmation (≈1 hour before kickoff) and never updates afterwards. It is the number the post-match recap holds accountable. The live win probability in the Live section is a separate, delayed, descriptive estimate; it does not replace the published forecast.

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–0
    18.9%
  • 0–0
    15.7%
  • 2–0
    12.8%
  • 1–1
    12.3%
  • 0–1
    8.2%

From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.

Post-match calibration

2 – 0
Mexico win

Pre-match probability vs realised outcome

  • Mexico win· realised
    59.5%
  • Draw
    27.2%
  • South Africa win
    13.4%
Brier score
0.256
Log loss
0.520
xG (final / predicted)
1.41 / 1.26 · Mexico
0.07 / 0.71 · South Africa
P(realised outcome)
59.5%

Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.

Full forecast-vs-result recap →

How the live probability works. The published pre-match forecast is frozen at the T-1h lineup-confirmation pass and never changes after kickoff; the post-match recap scores that frozen number against the result. The live win probability shown during play is the same model re-read against the current score and time remaining. It refreshes about once a minute, is always delayed, and is a descriptive research figure, not a betting product or a price of any kind. See /docs/methodology/ for the full framing.