Group A · Matchday 1

Full-timeFT
Mexico
2:0
South Africa

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Live descriptive stats

MexicoSouth Africa
Expected goals (xG) — predicted vs actual
predictedactualdiff
Mexico1.301.41+0.11
South Africa0.590.07−0.52

Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.

Shots
16
3
Shots on target
4
2
Possession (%)
61%
39%
Corners
3
1
Fouls
12
11
Yellow cards
1
2
Red cards
1
2

Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.

Analysis

How it plays out

Mexico press high and force the tempo. South Africa's balanced setup needs to absorb that pressure early and find the right moments to play forward. Mexico's aggressive press (PPDA 16.1) against South Africa's deeper build-up (PPDA 23.9) creates a clear territory question: can Mexico force errors high up, or will South Africa play through the press and find space behind it?

What decides it

Mexico press high (PPDA 16.1). If the press doesn't win the ball early, the space behind their back line becomes exposed. Raúl Jiménez's 8.8% scoring probability is the highest in this fixture. Containing that output is South Africa's primary defensive task.

Off the pitch

South Africa travel 14,106km while Mexico are essentially at home. That journey shows up in second-half intensity. Hugo Broos (5 years in charge of South Africa) vs Javier Aguirre (2 years). That tenure gap shows up in squad familiarity and set-piece coordination.

The angle

The model's 42nd-ranked side against the 19thth. Group stages reward the underdog who executes a clear plan.

Latest news & match context

Team news

No recent headlines for Mexico or South Africa.

Match conditions
Stage:
Group A · Matchday 1
Date:
11 Jun
Availability

Mexico

Mexico come in at close to full strength.

South Africa

South Africa come in at close to full strength.

What it means

Mexico and South Africa both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.

Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.

En vivoEstadísticas descriptivas y la probabilidad de victoria en vivo (con retraso) · se actualiza cada ~30 segundos

Live commentary & events

MexicoSouth Africa
  • GoalJ. Quinones· E. LiraJ. Quinones scores for Mexico.9'
  • 17'Yellow cardT. Mokoena· TrippingT. Mokoena is booked — Tripping.
  • Yellow cardB. Gutierrez· TrippingB. Gutierrez is booked — Tripping.23'
  • 49'Red cardY. Sithole· TrippingY. Sithole is sent off — Tripping.
  • 56'SubstitutionL. Foster· T. MbathaSouth Africa change: T. Mbatha.
  • 61'SubstitutionJ. Adams· T. ZwaneSouth Africa change: T. Zwane.
  • SubstitutionB. Gutierrez· L. ChavezMexico change: L. Chavez.66'
  • SubstitutionA. Fidalgo· G. MoraMexico change: G. Mora.66'
  • GoalR. Jimenez· R. AlvaradoR. Jimenez scores for Mexico.67'
  • 74'Yellow cardN. Sibisi· RoughingN. Sibisi is booked — Roughing.
  • SubstitutionE. Lira· E. AlvarezMexico change: E. Alvarez.76'
  • SubstitutionR. Jimenez· A. GonzalezMexico change: A. Gonzalez.76'
  • 77'SubstitutionI. Rayners· E. MakgopaSouth Africa change: E. Makgopa.
  • 77'SubstitutionA. Modiba· O. AppollisSouth Africa change: O. Appollis.
  • SubstitutionJ. Quinones· A. VegaMexico change: A. Vega.79'
  • 84'Red cardT. Zwane· ElbowingT. Zwane is sent off — Elbowing.
  • Red cardC. Montes· TrippingC. Montes is sent off — Tripping.90'+2

Player involvement

Mexico

J. Quinones9' Goal · 79' On
R. Jimenez67' Goal · 76' On
AE. Lira9' Assist · 76' On
AR. Alvarado67' Assist
C. Montes90'+2 Red card
B. Gutierrez23' Yellow card · 66' On

South Africa

Y. Sithole49' Red card
T. Zwane61' Off · 84' Red card
T. Mokoena17' Yellow card
N. Sibisi74' Yellow card
Modelo previo al partidoCongelado antes del saque inicial

Pre-match forecast

Mexico win
57.0%
Draw
30.4%
South Africa win
12.6%
Mexico
1.30
expected
goals
South Africa
0.59

La probabilidad publicada para este partido queda fijada al confirmarse las alineaciones (≈1 hora antes del inicio) y no se actualiza después. Es el número al que el repaso posterior pide cuentas. La probabilidad de victoria en vivo de la sección Live es una estimación separada, con retraso y descriptiva; no sustituye al pronóstico publicado.

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–0
    18.9%
  • 0–0
    15.7%
  • 2–0
    12.8%
  • 1–1
    12.3%
  • 0–1
    8.2%

From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.

Post-match calibration

2 – 0
Mexico win

Pre-match probability vs realised outcome

  • Mexico win· realised
    59.5%
  • Draw
    27.2%
  • South Africa win
    13.4%
Brier score
0.256
Log loss
0.520
xG (final / predicted)
1.41 / 1.26 · Mexico
0.07 / 0.71 · South Africa
P(realised outcome)
59.5%

Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.

Resumen completo de pronóstico frente a resultado →

Cómo funciona la probabilidad en vivo. El pronóstico previo publicado se congela en el cierre de alineaciones (T-1h) y no cambia tras el inicio; el repaso posterior evalúa ese número congelado frente al resultado. La probabilidad de victoria en vivo que se muestra durante el juego es el mismo modelo, releído según el marcador y el tiempo restante. Se actualiza más o menos una vez por minuto, siempre con retraso, y es una cifra descriptiva de investigación, no un producto de juego ni un precio de ningún tipo. Consulta /docs/methodology/ para el marco completo.