Group A · Matchday 1

← 赛前预测
Scheduled
Mexico
–:–
South Africa

Live score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.

Match-outcome probability

Standard Pass for probabilities
CalibrationBacktested to a 0.572 Brier score across 987 out-of-sample major-tournament matches (2014–2024): lower is better, and a no-skill 1-in-3 guess scores 0.667. In plain terms, outcomes the model rated 70% likely happened about 70% of the time. Live scoring begins 2026-06-11. See the scoreboard →

Latest news & match context

Team news
Match conditions
Stage:
Group A · Matchday 1

One side faces defensive uncertainty, while their opponents report a fully fit squad; unlock the full breakdown with a Pass.

赛后校准回顾免费开放。 比赛结束后, 预测与结果对照回顾将发布: 赛前概率与实际结果、Brier score、log loss, 以及最终 xG 与预测值对比, 发布于 回顾页面, 对所有人开放。

Standard Pass

The model's full forecast for this match

Match-outcome probabilities, the most likely scorelines, scorer probabilities, and the in-match paths, all from one Dixon-Coles fit. The Standard Pass unlocks them for this match and all 104.

Scoreline distribution

Half-time / full-time

Four models compared

Most likely scorers

Standard Pass

See exactly how Mexico v South Africa plays out

The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.

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实时概率如何运作。 已发布的赛前预测在首发名单锁定（T-1h）时冻结，开球后不再变化；赛后回顾会用结果检验这个被冻结的数字。比赛中显示的实时获胜概率，是同一个模型按当前比分和剩余时间重新读取的结果。它大约每分钟刷新一次，始终有延迟，是描述性的研究数字，不是博弈类产品，也不是任何形式的价格。完整框架见 /docs/methodology/ 。