Group A · Matchday 1
← Previsão pré-jogoLive score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.
Match-outcome probability
Standard Pass for probabilitiesLatest news & match context
- World Cup schedule today: How to watch Mexico v South Africa, TV channels & live stream for 11 June · The Guardian · 11 Jun
- World Cup 2026 kicks off with Mexico vs South Africa and South Korea vs Czechia · Fox News · 11 Jun
- Mexico vs South Africa live updates: World Cup 2026 opening game latest news and buildup · The New York Times · 11 Jun
- Mexico and South Africa kick off first 48-team football World Cup · RFI · 11 Jun
- Inside Mexico's troubled 2026 World Cup: How 'the disappeared', deaths, poverty and protests are threatening to douse the hosts' blazing passion for the beautiful game · Daily Mail — Football · 11 Jun
- Stage:
- Group A · Matchday 1
One side faces defensive uncertainty, while their opponents report a fully fit squad; unlock the full breakdown with a Pass.
Calibração pós-jogo é gratuita. Quando este jogo terminar, a retrospectiva de previsão vs resultado — probabilidade pré-jogo vs resultado realizado, Brier score, log loss e xG final vs previsto — será publicada na página de retrospectiva, aberta para todos.
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The model's full forecast for this match
Match-outcome probabilities, the most likely scorelines, scorer probabilities, and the in-match paths, all from one Dixon-Coles fit. The Standard Pass unlocks them for this match and all 104.
Scoreline distribution
Half-time / full-time
Four models compared
Most likely scorers
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See exactly how Mexico v South Africa plays out
The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.
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