Tournament scorers · Germany

Snapshot · 2026-06-23Model 1.0.0

GermanyP(scores ≥1 goal)

Every player in Germany's current call-up pool, ranked by the model's probability that they score at least one goal across the matches Germany plays at the 2026 World Cup. See /scorers/ for the global top 50 and /countries/ger/ for the predicted squad and probable XI.

50 players in the pool

Rank1Niclas FüllkrugPKPosFWFormTeam outlookTop-85.3 mpP(scores ≥1)29.5%
Rank2Leroy SanéPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookTop-85.3 mpP(scores ≥1)20.1%
Rank3Kai HavertzPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookTop-85.3 mpP(scores ≥1)19.6%
Rank4Deniz UndavPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookTop-85.3 mpP(scores ≥1)18.3%
Rank5Jonathan BurkardtPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookTop-85.3 mpP(scores ≥1)13.4%
Rank6Jamal MusialaPosMFFormSteadyTeam outlookTop-85.3 mpP(scores ≥1)10.3%
Rank7Said El MalaPosFWFormTeam outlookTop-85.3 mpP(scores ≥1)9.1%
Rank8Maximilian BeierPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-85.3 mpP(scores ≥1)9.1%
Rank9Nick WoltemadePosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-85.3 mpP(scores ≥1)8.5%
Rank10Florian WirtzPosMFFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-85.3 mpP(scores ≥1)6.6%
Rank11Karim AdeyemiPosMFFormTeam outlookTop-85.3 mpP(scores ≥1)4.5%
Rank12Serge GnabryPosMFFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-85.3 mpP(scores ≥1)3.8%
Rank13Leon GoretzkaPosMFFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-85.3 mpP(scores ≥1)3.5%
Rank14Chris FührichPosMFFormRisingTeam outlookTop-85.3 mpP(scores ≥1)3.3%
Rank15Kevin SchadePosMFFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-85.3 mpP(scores ≥1)3.3%
Rank16Joshua KimmichPosMFFormSteadyTeam outlookTop-85.3 mpP(scores ≥1)2.8%
Rank17Assan OuédraogoPosMFFormTeam outlookTop-85.3 mpP(scores ≥1)2.6%
Rank18Nadiem AmiriPosMFFormRisingTeam outlookTop-85.3 mpP(scores ≥1)2.5%
Rank19Jamie LewelingPosMFFormRisingTeam outlookTop-85.3 mpP(scores ≥1)2.0%
Rank20Paul NebelPosMFFormSteadyTeam outlookTop-85.3 mpP(scores ≥1)1.9%
Rank21Pascal GroßPosMFFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-85.3 mpP(scores ≥1)1.8%
Rank22Tom BischofPosMFFormTeam outlookTop-85.3 mpP(scores ≥1)1.7%
Rank23Felix NmechaPosMFFormSteadyTeam outlookTop-85.3 mpP(scores ≥1)1.5%
Rank24Anton StachPosMFFormRisingTeam outlookTop-85.3 mpP(scores ≥1)1.4%
Rank25Robin GosensPosMFFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-85.3 mpP(scores ≥1)1.2%
Rank26Aleksandar PavlovićPosMFFormTeam outlookTop-85.3 mpP(scores ≥1)1.2%
Rank27Nico SchlotterbeckPosDFFormSteadyTeam outlookTop-85.3 mpP(scores ≥1)1.1%
Rank28Angelo StillerPosMFFormSteadyTeam outlookTop-85.3 mpP(scores ≥1)1.1%
Rank29Lennart KarlPosMFFormTeam outlookTop-85.3 mpP(scores ≥1)1.0%
Rank30Maximilian MittelstädtPosDFFormSteadyTeam outlookTop-85.3 mpP(scores ≥1)0.9%
Rank31Antonio RüdigerPosDFFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-85.3 mpP(scores ≥1)0.8%
Rank32Malick ThiawPosDFFormRisingTeam outlookTop-85.3 mpP(scores ≥1)0.7%
Rank33David RaumPosDFFormRisingTeam outlookTop-85.3 mpP(scores ≥1)0.7%
Rank34Waldemar AntonPosDFFormRisingTeam outlookTop-85.3 mpP(scores ≥1)0.4%
Rank35Jonathan TahPosDFFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-85.3 mpP(scores ≥1)0.4%
Rank36Ridle BakuPosDFFormTeam outlookTop-85.3 mpP(scores ≥1)0.4%
Rank37Robert AndrichPosDFFormRisingTeam outlookTop-85.3 mpP(scores ≥1)0.4%
Rank38Robin KochPosDFFormRisingTeam outlookTop-85.3 mpP(scores ≥1)0.4%
Rank39Nathaniel BrownPosDFFormRisingTeam outlookTop-85.3 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank40Thilo KehrerPosDFFormRisingTeam outlookTop-85.3 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank41Josha VagnomanPosDFFormTeam outlookTop-85.3 mpP(scores ≥1)0.2%
Rank42Yann Aurel BisseckPosDFFormTeam outlookTop-85.3 mpP(scores ≥1)0.2%
Rank43Nnamdi CollinsPosDFFormTeam outlookTop-85.3 mpP(scores ≥1)0.1%
Rank44Alexander NübelPosGKFormRisingTeam outlookTop-85.3 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank45Finn DahmenPosGKFormRisingTeam outlookTop-85.3 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank46Jonas UrbigPosGKFormTeam outlookTop-85.3 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank47Manuel NeuerPosGKFormCoolingTeam outlookTop-85.3 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank48Marc-André ter StegenPosGKFormTeam outlookTop-85.3 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank49Noah AtuboluPosGKFormTeam outlookTop-85.3 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank50Oliver BaumannPosGKFormRisingTeam outlookTop-85.3 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
How to read this table4 columns explained
Pos
Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
Form
Current-form momentum: the player's most recent full club season vs their own multi-season baseline (Rising / Steady / Cooling). Big-5 club data only, so it's blank for players without recent top-five-league history.
Team outlook
Contender tier — the deepest bracket stage the player's team has at least a 25% chance to reach — plus the team's expected number of WC matches. Drives the per-player total: a player on a deeper-running team gets more shots at scoring.
P(scores ≥1)
Total probability the player scores at least one goal across their team's WC matches. Derived from npxG/90, expected minutes, team xG share, opponent defence, and the team's expected match count.

How this is computed. v0 of the per-player tournament-scorer model. npxG/90 from each player's most recent ≥500-minute Big-5 season; E[minutes] is a two-state mixture of starter (75 min) and substitute (20 min) weighted by caps relative to the team's last-2-year fixture count; team_xG_share is position-weighted within a notional 4-3-3 (FW 4× / MF 2× / DF 1× / GK 0); opp_def_factor is the team-average xG-against multiplier across the other 47 WC nations; E[matches] is the team's expected number of WC matches from the bracket Monte Carlo. Known v0 simplifications: no penalty-taker designation, no set-piece-taker bonus, no fatigue / rotation, constant within-position xG share. See /docs/methodology/ for the full write-up.