Tournament scorers · Sweden

Snapshot · 2026-06-23Model 1.0.0

SwedenP(scores ≥1 goal)

Every player in Sweden's current call-up pool, ranked by the model's probability that they score at least one goal across the matches Sweden plays at the 2026 World Cup. See /scorers/ for the global top 50 and /countries/swe/ for the predicted squad and probable XI.

49 players in the pool

Rank1Emil ForsbergPKPosMFFormRisingTeam outlookKnockout3.9 mpP(scores ≥1)16.6%
Rank2Viktor GyökeresPosFWFormTeam outlookKnockout3.9 mpP(scores ≥1)13.1%
Rank3Alexander IsakPosFWFormRisingTeam outlookKnockout3.9 mpP(scores ≥1)11.4%
Rank4Gustaf NilssonPosFWFormTeam outlookKnockout3.9 mpP(scores ≥1)8.8%
Rank5Benjamin NygrenPosFWFormTeam outlookKnockout3.9 mpP(scores ≥1)8.8%
Rank6Benjamin NygrenPosFWFormTeam outlookKnockout3.9 mpP(scores ≥1)8.0%
Rank7Alexander BernhardssonPosFWFormTeam outlookKnockout3.9 mpP(scores ≥1)6.9%
Rank8Roony BardghjiPosFWFormTeam outlookKnockout3.9 mpP(scores ≥1)6.5%
Rank9Isac LidbergPosFWFormTeam outlookKnockout3.9 mpP(scores ≥1)5.6%
Rank10Taha AliPosFWFormTeam outlookKnockout3.9 mpP(scores ≥1)5.2%
Rank11Niclas EliassonPosFWFormTeam outlookKnockout3.9 mpP(scores ≥1)5.1%
Rank12Jordan LarssonPosFWFormTeam outlookKnockout3.9 mpP(scores ≥1)4.8%
Rank13Taha AliPosFWFormTeam outlookKnockout3.9 mpP(scores ≥1)4.8%
Rank14Anthony ElangaPosFWFormSteadyTeam outlookKnockout3.9 mpP(scores ≥1)4.8%
Rank15Momodou SonkoPosFWFormTeam outlookKnockout3.9 mpP(scores ≥1)4.4%
Rank16Mattias SvanbergPosMFFormTeam outlookKnockout3.9 mpP(scores ≥1)3.6%
Rank17Sebastian NanasiPosMFFormTeam outlookKnockout3.9 mpP(scores ≥1)3.6%
Rank18Yasin AyariPosMFFormSteadyTeam outlookKnockout3.9 mpP(scores ≥1)2.6%
Rank19Anton SalétrosPosMFFormTeam outlookKnockout3.9 mpP(scores ≥1)2.0%
Rank20Lucas BergvallPosMFFormTeam outlookKnockout3.9 mpP(scores ≥1)1.7%
Rank21Jesper KarlströmPosMFFormTeam outlookKnockout3.9 mpP(scores ≥1)1.5%
Rank22Ken SemaPosFWFormTeam outlookKnockout3.9 mpP(scores ≥1)1.4%
Rank23Besfort ZeneliPosMFFormTeam outlookKnockout3.9 mpP(scores ≥1)1.2%
Rank24Hugo LarssonPosMFFormSteadyTeam outlookKnockout3.9 mpP(scores ≥1)0.9%
Rank25Hugo BolinPosMFFormTeam outlookKnockout3.9 mpP(scores ≥1)0.9%
Rank26Emil HolmPosDFFormTeam outlookKnockout3.9 mpP(scores ≥1)0.9%
Rank27Williot SwedbergPosMFFormTeam outlookKnockout3.9 mpP(scores ≥1)0.8%
Rank28Gustav LundgrenPosMFFormTeam outlookKnockout3.9 mpP(scores ≥1)0.8%
Rank29Daniel SvenssonPosDFFormTeam outlookKnockout3.9 mpP(scores ≥1)0.6%
Rank30Isak HienPosDFFormSteadyTeam outlookKnockout3.9 mpP(scores ≥1)0.4%
Rank31Gabriel GudmundssonPosDFFormRisingTeam outlookKnockout3.9 mpP(scores ≥1)0.4%
Rank32Carl StarfeltPosDFFormTeam outlookKnockout3.9 mpP(scores ≥1)0.4%
Rank33Gustaf LagerbielkePosDFFormTeam outlookKnockout3.9 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank34Herman JohanssonPosDFFormTeam outlookKnockout3.9 mpP(scores ≥1)0.2%
Rank35Samuel DahlPosDFFormTeam outlookKnockout3.9 mpP(scores ≥1)0.2%
Rank36Victor ErikssonPosDFFormTeam outlookKnockout3.9 mpP(scores ≥1)0.2%
Rank37Axel NorénPosDFFormTeam outlookKnockout3.9 mpP(scores ≥1)0.2%
Rank38Elliot StroudPosDFFormTeam outlookKnockout3.9 mpP(scores ≥1)0.2%
Rank39Eric SmithPosDFFormTeam outlookKnockout3.9 mpP(scores ≥1)0.2%
Rank40John MellbergPosDFFormTeam outlookKnockout3.9 mpP(scores ≥1)0.2%
Rank41Victor LindelöfPosDFFormRisingTeam outlookKnockout3.9 mpP(scores ≥1)0.2%
Rank42Hjalmar EkdalPosDFFormTeam outlookKnockout3.9 mpP(scores ≥1)0.2%
Rank43Emil KrafthPosDFFormTeam outlookKnockout3.9 mpP(scores ≥1)0.1%
Rank44Jacob Widell ZetterströmPosGKFormTeam outlookKnockout3.9 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank45Kristoffer NordfeldtPosGKFormTeam outlookKnockout3.9 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank46Melker EllborgPosGKFormTeam outlookKnockout3.9 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank47Noel TörnqvistPosGKFormTeam outlookKnockout3.9 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank48Robin OlsenPosGKFormSteadyTeam outlookKnockout3.9 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank49Viktor JohanssonPosGKFormTeam outlookKnockout3.9 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
How to read this table4 columns explained
Pos
Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
Form
Current-form momentum: the player's most recent full club season vs their own multi-season baseline (Rising / Steady / Cooling). Big-5 club data only, so it's blank for players without recent top-five-league history.
Team outlook
Contender tier — the deepest bracket stage the player's team has at least a 25% chance to reach — plus the team's expected number of WC matches. Drives the per-player total: a player on a deeper-running team gets more shots at scoring.
P(scores ≥1)
Total probability the player scores at least one goal across their team's WC matches. Derived from npxG/90, expected minutes, team xG share, opponent defence, and the team's expected match count.

How this is computed. v0 of the per-player tournament-scorer model. npxG/90 from each player's most recent ≥500-minute Big-5 season; E[minutes] is a two-state mixture of starter (75 min) and substitute (20 min) weighted by caps relative to the team's last-2-year fixture count; team_xG_share is position-weighted within a notional 4-3-3 (FW 4× / MF 2× / DF 1× / GK 0); opp_def_factor is the team-average xG-against multiplier across the other 47 WC nations; E[matches] is the team's expected number of WC matches from the bracket Monte Carlo. Known v0 simplifications: no penalty-taker designation, no set-piece-taker bonus, no fatigue / rotation, constant within-position xG share. See /docs/methodology/ for the full write-up.