Tournament scorers · Canada

Snapshot · 2026-06-23Model 1.0.0

Canada ★P(scores ≥1 goal)

Every player in Canada's current call-up pool, ranked by the model's probability that they score at least one goal across the matches Canada plays at the 2026 World Cup. See /scorers/ for the global top 50 and /countries/can/ for the predicted squad and probable XI.

78 players in the pool

Rank1Jonathan DavidPKPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)45.1%
Rank2Lucas CavalliniPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)20.1%
Rank3Cyle LarinPosFWFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)13.4%
Rank4Tani OluwaseyiPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)11.8%
Rank5Theo CorbeanuPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)9.5%
Rank6Promise DavidPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)8.5%
Rank7Daniel JebbisonPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)8.2%
Rank8Theo BairPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)7.5%
Rank9Jacen Russell-RowePosFWFormTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)7.2%
Rank10Stephen AfrifaPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)6.5%
Rank11Charles-Andreas BrymPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)6.2%
Rank12Kwasi PokuPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)6.2%
Rank13Aribim PepplePosFWFormTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)5.8%
Rank14Deandre KerrPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)5.8%
Rank15Dieu-Merci MichelPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)5.8%
Rank16Gabriele BiancheriPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)5.8%
Rank17Kimani Stewart-BaynesPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)5.8%
Rank18Marius AiyeneroPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)5.8%
Rank19Santiago LópezPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)5.8%
Rank20Tiago CoimbraPosFWFormTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)5.8%
Rank21Mark-Anthony KayePosMFFormTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)3.7%
Rank22Tajon BuchananPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)3.2%
Rank23Jacob ShaffelburgPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)2.4%
Rank24Ismaël KonéPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)2.3%
Rank25Mathieu ChoinièrePosMFFormTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)2.3%
Rank26Ali AhmedPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)2.2%
Rank27Stephen EustáquioPosMFFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)2.2%
Rank28Junior HoilettPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)2.1%
Rank29Jonathan OsorioPosMFFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)2.1%
Rank30Liam MillarPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)1.9%
Rank31Nathan SalibaPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)1.8%
Rank32Jayden NelsonPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)1.4%
Rank33Marcelo FloresPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)1.1%
Rank34Samuel PiettePosMFFormTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)1.1%
Rank35Harry PatonPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)1.1%
Rank36Victor LoturiPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)1.1%
Rank37Jeevan BadwalPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)1.0%
Rank38Justin SmithPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)1.0%
Rank39Kosi ThompsonPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)1.0%
Rank40Malik HenryPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)1.0%
Rank41Shola JimohPosMFFormTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)1.0%
Rank42Alistair Johnston TRPPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)0.9%
Rank43Moïse Bombito TRPPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)0.7%
Rank44Richie LaryeaPosDFFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)0.6%
Rank45Derek CorneliusPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)0.6%
Rank46Alphonso DaviesPosDFFormCoolingTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)0.6%
Rank47Scott KennedyPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)0.6%
Rank48Alistair JohnstonPosDFFormSteadyTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)0.5%
Rank49Niko SigurPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)0.5%
Rank50Moïse BombitoPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)0.5%
Rank51Joel WatermanPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)0.5%
Rank52Zachary Brault-GuillardPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)0.4%
Rank53Kamal MillerPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)0.4%
Rank54Luc de FougerollesPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)0.4%
Rank55Raheem EdwardsPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)0.4%
Rank56Zorhan BassongPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank57Jamie Knight-LebelPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank58Ralph PrisoPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank59Sam AdekugbePosDFFormTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank60Alfie JonesPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank61Dominick ZatorPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank62Jahkeele Marshall-RuttyPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank63Kyle HiebertPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank64Jovan IvanisevicPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank65Lazar StefanovicPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank66Luca PetrassoPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank67Matteo de BriennePosDFFormTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank68Noah AbatnehPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank69Zac McGrawPosDFFormTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)0.3%
Rank70Dayne St. ClairPosGKFormTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank71Grégoire ŚwiderskiPosGKFormTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank72James PantemisPosGKFormTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank73Jayden HibbertPosGKFormTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank74Jonathan SiroisPosGKFormTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank75Luka GavranPosGKFormTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank76Maxime CrépeauPosGKFormTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank77Owen GoodmanPosGKFormTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
Rank78Tom McGillPosGKFormTeam outlookR164.6 mpP(scores ≥1)0.0%
How to read this table4 columns explained
Pos
Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
Form
Current-form momentum: the player's most recent full club season vs their own multi-season baseline (Rising / Steady / Cooling). Big-5 club data only, so it's blank for players without recent top-five-league history.
Team outlook
Contender tier — the deepest bracket stage the player's team has at least a 25% chance to reach — plus the team's expected number of WC matches. Drives the per-player total: a player on a deeper-running team gets more shots at scoring.
P(scores ≥1)
Total probability the player scores at least one goal across their team's WC matches. Derived from npxG/90, expected minutes, team xG share, opponent defence, and the team's expected match count.

How this is computed. v0 of the per-player tournament-scorer model. npxG/90 from each player's most recent ≥500-minute Big-5 season; E[minutes] is a two-state mixture of starter (75 min) and substitute (20 min) weighted by caps relative to the team's last-2-year fixture count; team_xG_share is position-weighted within a notional 4-3-3 (FW 4× / MF 2× / DF 1× / GK 0); opp_def_factor is the team-average xG-against multiplier across the other 47 WC nations; E[matches] is the team's expected number of WC matches from the bracket Monte Carlo. Known v0 simplifications: no penalty-taker designation, no set-piece-taker bonus, no fatigue / rotation, constant within-position xG share. See /docs/methodology/ for the full write-up.