Measured in public

15 Jul 2026

Every probability below was published before kickoff and locked. This page scores each one against what actually happened.

1 of 1 matches graded
0
Nailed it
High confidence, right result
0
Strong read
Gave the most probability to what happened
1
Expected
Result was within the range
0
Surprise
The model didn't see this coming

Day average: Within expectations

  • EnglandvsArgentina
    GradedLocked 14 Jul
    1 – 2
    • England28.3%
    • Draw31.5%
    • Argentina · realised40.2%
    Verdict
    Within expectations

    England 1–2 Argentina was the outcome the model rated most likely (40.2% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.537, better than the 0.667 no-skill mark.

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Model report card — 15 Jul 2026 · onthepitch