Medido en público
15 Jul 2026
Cada probabilidad de abajo se publicó antes del inicio y quedó fijada. Esta página califica cada una frente a lo que realmente ocurrió.
1 de 1 partidos calificados
0
Clavado
Alta confianza, resultado correcto
0
Buena lectura
Dio la mayor probabilidad a lo que ocurrió
1
Esperado
El resultado estuvo dentro del rango
0
Sorpresa
El modelo no vio venir esto
Promedio del día: Within expectations
- 1 – 2
- England28.3%
- Empate31.5%
- Argentina · ocurrido40.2%
VeredictoWithin expectationsEngland 1–2 Argentina was the outcome the model rated most likely (40.2% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.537, better than the 0.667 no-skill mark.
See how the forecast holds up
OnThePitch grades every probability against what actually happens, and publishes the calibration in the open. Subscribe to follow the retrospectives and research as they ship — one email per post, no marketing.
Already read on Substack? Follow OnThePitch there — same posts, slightly different format.