Previsão vs resultado · Group D · Matchday 1

United States vs Paraguay

2026-06-12

Post-match calibration

4 – 1
United States win

Pre-match probability vs realised outcome

  • United States win· realised
    32.3%
  • Draw
    29.4%
  • Paraguay win
    38.3%
Brier score
0.693
Log loss
1.132
xG (final / predicted)
1.27 / 0.90 · United States
0.51 / 0.93 · Paraguay
P(realised outcome)
32.3%

Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.

Late goalG. Reyna (90'+8)
Own goalD. Bobadilla (7')
xG overperformanceUnited States scored 4 from 1.27 xG.

Key moments

7'⚽
Own goalOG

D. Bobadilla (United States)

28'📺
VAR review

F. Balogun (United States)

31'⚽
Goal

F. Balogun (United States)

C. Pulisic

45'+5⚽
Goal

F. Balogun (United States)

M. Tillman

73'⚽
Goal

Mauricio (Paraguay)

J. Enciso

90'+8⚽
GoalLate

G. Reyna (United States)

A. Freeman

Match statistics

UNIParaguay
65%
Possession
35%
16
Shots
9
6
On target
1
1.27
xG
0.51
3
Corners
1
13
Fouls
17
1
Yellows
5

Scoreline prediction

The actual scoreline (4–1) was outside the model's top 5 predicted outcomes.

#10–016.6%
#20–114.2%
#31–114.1%
#41–013.8%
#50–26.9%

Team performance

United StatesA-
Passing
In line5/10
Pressing / defence
In line5/10
Set pieces
In line5/10
Chance creation
Above profile9/10
Shot quality
Above profile9/10
Cohesion
In line5/10
Individual quality
Above profile9/10

The team appears to be in strong attacking form, converting chances effectively and maintaining offensive pressure.

ParaguayF
Passing
Below profile4/10
Pressing / defence
Below profile2/10
Set pieces
In line5/10
Chance creation
Below profile3/10
Shot quality
In line6/10
Cohesion
Below profile3/10
Individual quality
Below profile2/10

Paraguay's current form appears poor, particularly in defensive organisation and containing opposition attacks.

Video analysis: player performance

Per-player ratings and event breakdowns from official highlights analysis. Tap a player to see their full match timeline.

United States
9
Folarin Balogun44'–117'

Scored two crucial goals for the USA, demonstrating clinical finishing and a strong offensive presence.

3goals
▼

Match timeline

44'Folarin Balogun's goal disallowed for offside
55'Folarin Balogun scores
117'Folarin Balogun scores
8
Gio Reyna

Contributed a well-placed goal for the USA, adding to their commanding lead.

7
Weston McKennie

Showed good attacking intent with a notable shot on goal that tested the opposition goalkeeper.

1shots1on target
▼

Match timeline

Paraguay
3
Damian Bobadilla

Scored an own goal that put the USA ahead, representing a costly error for his team.

Match observations

  • The event commenced with an elaborate pre-game ceremony, featuring national anthems and a fireworks display, which generated a vibrant atmosphere.
  • The crowd was highly engaged and enthusiastic, both within the stadium and in external viewing locations, reacting with great excitement to the goals.
  • The USA team showcased effective offensive movements, leading to several successful attempts on goal during the compilation.
← Previsão pré-jogoAo vivo →

Como ler isto. O Brier e o log-loss de um jogo isolado são ruidosos — o que importa é como a previsão se calibra ao longo de muitos jogos. Esta retrospectiva por jogo é uma linha do placar de calibração agregado em /docs/calibration/. A probabilidade pré-jogo mostrada aqui é a que foi congelada antes do início; ela nunca foi atualizada durante o jogo.