The group stage is done. Seventy-two matches, twelve groups, thirty-two teams advancing. Turkey stunned the hosts in stoppage time. Ecuador scored their first goals and beat Germany. Dembele hit a first-half hat trick. Cape Verde qualified without winning a match. Messi and Kane both set records. The model finished the group stage at 0.516 Brier across 72 matches.
The final 18: scorecard
June 25 (Groups D, E, F)
| Match | Result | P(result) | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| USA vs Turkey | 2-3 | 47.8% | 0.408 |
| Paraguay vs Australia | 0-0 | 30.8% | 0.719 |
| Germany vs Ecuador | 1-2 | 30.9% | 0.728 |
| Curaçao vs Ivory Coast | 0-2 | 71.5% | 0.129 |
| Netherlands vs Tunisia | 3-1 | 65.7% | 0.186 |
| Japan vs Sweden | 1-1 | 25.6% | 0.867 |
Mean Brier: 0.506. Three correct from six.
June 26 (Groups G, H, I)
| Match | Result | P(result) | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium vs New Zealand | 5-1 | 79.0% | 0.073 |
| Egypt vs Iran | 1-1 | 29.8% | 0.752 |
| Spain vs Uruguay | 1-0 | 59.9% | 0.247 |
| Cape Verde vs Saudi Arabia | 0-0 | 29.6% | 0.744 |
| France vs Norway | 4-1 | 56.3% | 0.287 |
| Senegal vs Iraq | 5-0 | 62.4% | 0.224 |
Mean Brier: 0.388. Four correct from six.
June 27 (Groups J, K, L)
| Match | Result | P(result) | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina vs Jordan | 3-1 | 84.9% | 0.040 |
| Algeria vs Austria | 3-3 | 26.6% | 0.816 |
| Portugal vs Colombia | 0-0 | 26.6% | 0.810 |
| DR Congo vs Uzbekistan | 3-1 | 30.3% | 0.733 |
| England vs Panama | 2-0 | 78.8% | 0.074 |
| Croatia vs Ghana | 2-1 | 71.4% | 0.132 |
Mean Brier: 0.434. Three correct from six.
Combined: 10 correct from 18 (mean Brier 0.443)
The pattern is clear. When the model's top call was a decisive win (Belgium, France, Argentina, England, Croatia), it was right and the Brier was low. When the match landed as a draw, the model almost always missed it. Seven of the eight incorrect calls in this stretch were draws. The model's draw calibration is the single biggest area for improvement heading into the knockout round, where draws (after 90 minutes) are more common.
The stories
Turkey 3-2 USA: the hosts fall (June 25)
Kaan Ayhan scored in stoppage time. Arda Güler had two assists and controlled the match from start to finish. Pochettino had rotated ten players with qualification already secured. It did not matter to the scoreline: Turkey wanted to win, and they did. USA still top Group D on 6 points.
Ecuador 2-1 Germany: zero to hero (June 25)
Ecuador arrived with zero goals from two matches. Leroy Sané put Germany ahead. Nilson Angulo equalized within nine minutes. A German penalty was overturned by VAR. Then Gonzalo Plata stabbed in the winner with 13 minutes left. Seven shots, two goals, one historic upset. Germany still topped Group E on head-to-head.
Dembele's hat trick, France perfect (June 26)
Ousmane Dembele scored three in the first half against Norway. Haaland sat as an unused substitute, Norway having already qualified. France finished the group stage on 9 points with 10 goals scored and 2 conceded.
Cape Verde: through with three draws (June 26)
Cape Verde drew Spain 0-0, drew Uruguay 2-2, drew Saudi Arabia 0-0. Three points. Zero wins. Second in Group H. They are the first team to qualify from a World Cup group without winning a match since Cameroon in 2014, and only the third ever. Uruguay, two-time champions, went home.
Spain: zero conceded (June 26)
Spain beat Uruguay 1-0 to complete the group stage without conceding a single goal. Seven points, five goals scored, none allowed. The last team to go through a World Cup group with a clean sheet across all three matches was Switzerland in 2006.
Messi's record (June 27)
Messi came off the bench against Jordan and scored. That is seven consecutive World Cup matches with a goal, stretching back to the 2022 final. No player has done that before. Argentina finished the group stage perfect: 9 points, 8 goals scored, 1 conceded.
Kane passes Lineker (June 27)
Harry Kane headed in against Panama for his 11th career World Cup goal, passing Gary Lineker (10) as England's all-time leading scorer in the tournament. England topped Group L on 7 points.
Algeria 3-3 Austria: the wildest draw (June 27)
Six goals, three lead changes, both teams through. Austria finish second in Group J on goal difference over Algeria. Jordan, the only team in Group J without a point, exit.
DR Congo: history (June 27)
DR Congo scored three second-half goals to beat Uzbekistan 3-1 and qualify for the knockout round for the first time in their history.
Colombia top Group K (June 27)
Colombia and Portugal drew 0-0 in a match with 37 shots (24 from Portugal). Colombia had a late winner ruled out by VAR for offside. Colombia finished first on 7 points; Portugal second on 5.
Final group standings
Group D
| Team | Pts | GD |
|---|---|---|
| USA | 6 | +4 |
| Australia | 4 | 0 |
| Paraguay | 4 | -2 |
| Turkey | 3 | -2 |
Group E
| Team | Pts | GD |
|---|---|---|
| Germany | 6 | +6 |
| Ivory Coast | 6 | +2 |
| Ecuador | 4 | 0 |
| Curaçao | 1 | -8 |
Group F
| Team | Pts | GD |
|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | 7 | +6 |
| Japan | 5 | +4 |
| Sweden | 4 | 0 |
| Tunisia | 0 | -10 |
Group G
| Team | Pts | GD |
|---|---|---|
| Belgium | 5 | +4 |
| Egypt | 5 | +2 |
| Iran | 3 | 0 |
| New Zealand | 1 | -6 |
Group H
| Team | Pts | GD |
|---|---|---|
| Spain | 7 | +5 |
| Cape Verde | 3 | 0 |
| Uruguay | 2 | -1 |
| Saudi Arabia | 2 | -4 |
Group I
| Team | Pts | GD |
|---|---|---|
| France | 9 | +8 |
| Norway | 6 | +1 |
| Senegal | 3 | +2 |
| Iraq | 0 | -11 |
Group J
| Team | Pts | GD |
|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 9 | +7 |
| Austria | 4 | 0 |
| Algeria | 4 | -2 |
| Jordan | 0 | -5 |
Group K
| Team | Pts | GD |
|---|---|---|
| Colombia | 7 | +3 |
| Portugal | 5 | +5 |
| DR Congo | 4 | +1 |
| Uzbekistan | 0 | -9 |
Group L
| Team | Pts | GD |
|---|---|---|
| England | 7 | +4 |
| Croatia | 6 | 0 |
| Ghana | 4 | 0 |
| Panama | 0 | -4 |
The model's group stage: 72 matches, Brier 0.516
The model started the tournament at 0.54 through the first 24 matches, improved to 0.52 through 48, and finished at 0.516 across all 72. The favorites-heavy matchdays (Belgium, Argentina, England, France) pulled the average down. The draw-heavy matchdays pushed it up.
The biggest single-match successes: Spain 4-0 Saudi Arabia (Brier 0.039), Argentina 3-1 Jordan (0.040), Belgium 5-1 New Zealand (0.073), England 2-0 Panama (0.074). The biggest misses: Japan 1-1 Sweden (0.867), Algeria 3-3 Austria (0.816), Portugal 0-0 Colombia (0.810), Egypt 1-1 Iran (0.752).
Twenty of the 72 group stage matches ended in draws. The model had the draw as its top-probability outcome in only two of them. That is the primary calibration weakness heading into the knockout round, where 90-minute draws are structurally more common.
The round of 32 begins June 30.