United States ★

Snapshot · 2026-06-11Model 1.0.0

CONCACAF·Groep D·FIFA #14

R16 contender

Tim Ream: 38 at kickoff with 80 caps — probably his final World Cup.

Recente formatie: 4-3-3 (4 van 4)

Rivaal: Australia (#26)
Sleutel: Folarin Balogun (FW)

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Final squad announced · United States · 2026-05-27

Source: Cronkite News ↗

Toernooivooruitzicht

Analysis

United States have home advantage as tournament hosts, and the model rates them at 0.1% to lift the trophy (33rd in the field). Tim Ream — 38 at kickoff with 80 caps — probably his final world cup. Drawn in Group D alongside Australia, Paraguay, Turkey, they are projected at 73.7% to advance to the knockout stage.

How they play

United States under Mauricio Pochettino play a balanced game with 50% possession. Their likely shape is a 4-3-3. They sit deeper and pick their moments to press (PPDA 27.7).

Path to success

In Group D alongside Australia, Paraguay, Turkey, United States are projected at 73.7% to advance from the group stage. Qualification to the knockout rounds is the primary target. The round of 32 probability sits at 32.3%. The expanded 48-team format gives smaller federations more runway, and upsets in the group stage are a fixture of every World Cup.

What they must execute

United States will need to leverage their strengths while managing the physical demands of a tournament spread across three host countries. Managing minutes for Tim Ream across what could be seven matches will test the coaching staff's rotation planning.

Controversial take

The model and FIFA rankings tell different stories for United States. Model rates them #26 by tournament-winner probability — 12 places lower than FIFA #14.

Key numbers

0.1%Win probability33rd in field, -2.2pp vs FIFA rank

1721Elo ratingRanked 41st globally

4-3-3Predicted formationMost-used shape in recent tournaments

27.7PPDA (press intensity)Lower = more pressing; bottom quartile (36th of 48)

35.9%Tournament goal probability — Folarin BalogunTop projected scorer in the squad (FW)

2.4 yearsManager tenureMauricio Pochettino

How they play

Style vs the 48-team field

Balanced · style profile from 7 recent matches

Press

27.7

Build-up

6.3

Directness

6.4

Width (proxy)

447.1

Tempo

8.7

Set-piece reliance

5.2

What to watch: an open-play creation profile, light on set pieces.

Percentiles position United States against the 48-team field — higher means more of that trait, not better or worse. Press is inverted (lower PPDA = higher press); width uses crossing rate as a proxy; tempo is open-play passes per minute of possession. Descriptive style analytics; does not feed the published probabilities.

Group D finish · United States

Monte Carlo, 50,000 sims

Top two advance to the round of 32; best 8 of 12 third-placed teams also qualify.

1st (group winner)
Advances to R32
28.3%
2nd (runner-up)
Advances to R32
25.9%
3rd
Advances only if among the best 8 of 12 third-placed teams
23.6%
4th
Eliminated
22.2%

Stage progression · United States

, 50,000 sims

72.6%AdvAdvance from group
32.0%R16Round of 16
9.9%QFQuarter-final
2.7%SFSemi-final
0.7%FFinal
0.2%WinWin the tournament

Likely knockout path · United States

Monte Carlo, 10,000 sims

Most frequent opponents per round, conditional on reaching it.

R32

Round of 32

Iran12%

Bosnia and Herzegovina11%

Belgium9%

R16

Round of 16

Belgium20%

Argentina19%

Uruguay8%

Quarter-final

Spain24%

Portugal13%

Colombia10%

Semi-final

France13%

Brazil11%

Germany9%

Final

Spain14%

Brazil13%

Argentina13%

CalibrationBacktested to a 0.572 Brier score across 987 out-of-sample major-tournament matches (2014–2024): lower is better, and a no-skill 1-in-3 guess scores 0.667. In plain terms, outcomes the model rated 70% likely happened about 70% of the time. Live scoring begins 2026-06-11. See the scoreboard →

De selectie

Confirmed squad

Wikipedia call-up pool · snapshot 2026-05-28

Roster confirmed by the federation's official squad announcement. The XI/bench split below is the model's composite-rating ordering, not the head coach's lineup.

Goalkeepers (1)

PlayerStat

Matt Turner#1Jersey-boosted↘New England Revolution

53c—0.78

Defenders (4)

PlayerStat

Antonee Robinson#5↗Fulham

52c48tackles0.98

Chris Richards#3Jersey-boosted↗Crystal Palace

36c29tackles0.83

Tim Ream#13Caps-driven↘Charlotte FC

80c15tackles0.13

Miles Robinson#12FC Cincinnati

38c—0.66

Midfielders (3)

PlayerStat

Weston McKennie#8Caps-driven↗Juventus

64c9assists0.66

Tyler Adams#4Jersey-boosted→Bournemouth

52c1assists0.51

Giovanni Reyna#7Jersey-boostedBorussia Mönchengladbach

36c6assists0.74

Forwards (3)

PlayerStat

Christian Pulisic#10RecoveringGoals-driven↗Milan

84c32goals0.84

Brenden Aaronson#11Caps-drivenLeeds United

57c9goals0.37

Ricardo Pepi#9Jersey-boostedPSV

35c13goals0.62

Bench

★ likely first sub badge on the top-3 by first-sub score within each position group, plus a late-game impact rating where club per-90 stats are available.

Goalkeepers (2)

PlayerStat

Matt Freese#24New York City★ Likely first sub

14c—0.38

Chris Brady#25Rating-drivenChicago Fire★ Likely first sub

0c—0.69

Defenders (6)

PlayerStat

Sergiño Dest#2Jersey-boostedPSVimpact 42/100

37c36tackles0.36

Joe Scally#23Rating-driven↗Borussia Mönchengladbach★ Likely first subimpact 15/100

24c13tackles0.77

Mark McKenzie#22→Toulouse★ Likely first subimpact 10/100

27c—0.62

Auston Trusty#6Jersey-boostedCeltic★ Likely first sub

6c—0.75

Maximilian Arfsten#18Columbus Crew

18c—0.39

Alex Freeman#16Jersey-boostedVillarreal

15c—0.04

Midfielders (3)

PlayerStat

Cristian Roldan#15Caps-drivenSeattle Sounders★ Likely first sub

45c5assists0.56

Malik Tillman#17Rating-drivenBayer Leverkusen★ Likely first subimpact 46/100

28c4assists0.85

Sebastian Berhalter#14Jersey-boostedVancouver Whitecaps★ Likely first sub

11c3assists0.31

Forwards (4)

PlayerStat

Timothy Weah#21Caps-driven↘Marseilleimpact 26/100

49c7goals0.26

Folarin Balogun#20→Monaco [ a ]★ Likely first subimpact 64/100

25c8goals0.76

Haji Wright#19Coventry City★ Likely first subimpact 42/100

20c7goals0.63

Alejandro Zendejas#26Rating-drivenAmérica★ Likely first sub

13c2goals0.57

▸How to read this squad— 4 columns explained

Pos: Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
Caps: Senior international appearances. Used by the model as a recency-weighted signal of how often the manager calls the player up.
Stat: Position-aware stat: career international goals for forwards; career international assists for midfielders (Transfermarkt); latest available Big-5 club season's total tackles for defenders (FBref); latest available Big-5 club season's save percentage for goalkeepers (FBref). Em-dash when no data is joined — most often for defenders and keepers at non-Big-5 clubs.
Rating: Composite rating (Model #4) — combines recent caps + goals, recent club xG and xAG per 90, position-relative quality, and call-up priors. Higher = the model thinks the player is more likely to start. Typically 0.9 (depth) to 2.5 (elite).

★ Likely first sub — the bench player the model rates most likely to be the first substitute for their position. Computed from a first-sub score (cap-recency + impact rating); ties broken by Rating.

Selection driver — coloured chips show which input dominates a player's selection score. Caps-driven = selected mainly on international experience. Rating-driven = selected mainly on club performance quality. Jersey-boosted = jersey number from a recent squad snapshot lifted their score. Goals-driven = international goal record was the decisive factor. No chip when the score is a balanced blend.

Squad cohesion

Projected XI · club overlap

Low coverage: 5/11 of the projected XI have club-minutes rows in our ratings table. Numbers below are structurally suppressed and should be read alongside the resolved count, not in isolation.

Pairwise club minutes: 0.92%; Share of the 55-pair × 3000-minute ceiling. Higher = more of the XI plays together at club level.

Club concentration: 0.280; How concentrated the XI is across clubs. 0.091 = 11 different clubs · 1.000 = all the same club.

Top-3 clubs share: 80%; 4 of 5 play for the three most common clubs in the XI.

Top clubs in projected XI

Fulham2
Juventus1
AC Milan1

Most-connected club pair

Antonee Robinson + Tim Ream — Fulham, 2023-24 · 1,513 shared minutes

Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →

Squad depth

Projected XI · replaceability

Most irreplaceable starters

Christian PulisicWingerLikely cover: Alejandro Zendejas · 0.57América0.27gap to repl.
Weston McKennieCentral midfieldLikely cover: Cristian Roldan · 0.56Seattle Sounders0.23gap to repl.
Antonee RobinsonFull-backLikely cover: Joe Scally · 0.77Borussia Mönchengladbach0.22gap to repl.

Gap to repl. = how far this nation's rating at the position falls from the starter to his likely in-squad replacement (named above). Larger = harder to replace.

Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →

Groepsschema

Group-stage schedule

MD	Date	Opponent	Venue
1	Jun 12, 2026	Paraguay	Inglewood, United States
2	Jun 19, 2026	Australia	Seattle, United States
3	Jun 25, 2026	Turkey	Inglewood, United States

Onderlinge confrontaties

Verwachte doelpuntenmakers United States →

Verhaallijnen

Storylines

Updated 14 days ago

Last danceTim Ream

38 at kickoff with 80 caps — probably his final World Cup.

Top scorerFolarin Balogun

Model's top anytime-scorer for the team — 28% probability of scoring at least once, rank #9 of all players.

TouchlineMauricio Pochettino

First World Cup as head coach, appointed 2024.

Model bold

Model rates them #26 by tournament-winner probability — 12 places lower than FIFA #14.

Vorm en trackrecord

Statistical profile

Balanced

Attack

Attack rating0.7927th/48

Shots per match10.630th/48

Chance quality0.09635th/48

Defence

Defence rating0.6821st/48

Goalkeeper rating0.5418th/48

GK: Matt Turner

Set pieces

Set-piece goal share5.2%37th/48

Penalty conversion71.4%46th/48

Penalty save rate22.9%24th/48

Style

Possession49.9%23rd/48

Press intensity27.736th/48

Directness6.421st/48

Crossing volume447.116th/48

Long ball volume38.012th/48

Build-up length6.319th/48

Squad

Avg. minutes per starter1,84015th/48

Club familiarity0.00914th/48

Workload class: light

Attack and defence ratings from the model; style metrics from recent international matches; penalty rates via Bayesian estimation; goalkeeper rating from shot-prevention data. Rank is out of 48 tournament teams.

Where goals come from

Phase of play · scored & conceded

Scored6 goals · 80 shots

Conceded7 goals · 61 shots

Open play
Set piece
Counter
Penalty

Share of goals by how the chance began, across 7 matches (CopaAmerica2024,WC2022). Shoot-out kicks are excluded. Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →

Group-stage matchups

vs Paraguay

Win32.3%

Draw29.4%

Loss38.3%

Expected goals for0.90

Expected goals against0.93

Likeliest score0-0 (16.6%)

Both teams score36.7%

Clean sheet39.4%

Full fixture analysis →

vs Australia

Win30.9%

Draw28.1%

Loss41.0%

Expected goals for0.97

Expected goals against1.08

Likeliest score1-1 (14.1%)

Both teams score41.6%

Clean sheet34.0%

Full fixture analysis →

vs Turkey

Win30.8%

Draw25.8%

Loss43.5%

Expected goals for1.15

Expected goals against1.34

Likeliest score1-1 (13.4%)

Both teams score51.0%

Clean sheet26.2%

Full fixture analysis →

Probabilities from the calibrated ensemble model. xG from the Dixon–Coles fit. See each fixture page for full analysis.

Rating & probability history

10 snapshots · 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-10

Each point is one model build. The shaded band is the bootstrap 90% credible interval around the tournament-winner probability.

Recent form (10 matches)

Record5W · 1D · 4L

Goals17–16

Form

Date	Opponent	Score	Result	Competition
2026-03-31	HPortugal	0–2	L	Friendly
2026-03-28	HBelgium	2–5	L	Friendly
2025-11-18	HUruguay	5–1	W	Friendly
2025-11-15	HParaguay	2–1	W	Friendly
2025-10-14	HAustralia	2–1	W	Friendly
2025-10-10	HEcuador	1–1	D	Friendly
2025-09-09	HJapan	2–0	W	Friendly
2025-09-06	HSouth Korea	0–2	L	Friendly
2025-07-06	HMexico	1–2	L	Gold Cup
2025-07-02	HGuatemala	2–1	W	Gold Cup

martj42 international results (CC0) · last 10 matches · ~2 years.

Head-to-head vs group opponents

Opponent	Meetings	W-D-L	Last meeting
Paraguay	9	5-2-2	2025 — Win (2–1) · Friendly
Turkey	5	2-1-2	2025 — Loss (1–2) · Friendly
Australia	4	2-1-1	2025 — Win (2–1) · Friendly

All meetings via the martj42 international results dataset.

Major tournaments — most recent appearance

Tournament	Year	Finish	W-D-L	Since then
Gold Cup	2025	Runner-up	4-1-1	Same head coach (Mauricio Pochettino) since 2024 44/44 of current pool (100%) were active that year
Copa América	2024	Group stage	1-0-2	Same head coach (Mauricio Pochettino) since 2024 29/44 of current pool (66%) were active that year
FIFA World Cup	2022	Round of 16	1-2-1	New head coach since then — now Mauricio Pochettino (appointed 2024) 21/44 of current pool (48%) were active that year

Source: FIFA archives. Penalty outcomes resolved to W/L.

Toernooivooruitzicht

Analysis

How they play

Path to success

What they must execute

Controversial take

Key numbers

How they play

Group D finish · United States?

Stage progression · United States?

Likely knockout path · United States

De selectie

Confirmed squad?

Squad cohesion

Top clubs in projected XI

Most-connected club pair

Squad depth

Most irreplaceable starters

Groepsschema

Group-stage schedule

Onderlinge confrontaties

Verhaallijnen

Vorm en trackrecord

Statistical profile

Attack

Defence

Set pieces

Style

Squad

Where goals come from

Group-stage matchups

Rating & probability history

Recent form (10 matches)

Head-to-head vs group opponents

Major tournaments — most recent appearance

Group D finish · United States

Stage progression · United States

Confirmed squad