Bosnia and Herzegovina

Snapshot · 2026-06-11Model 1.0.0

UEFA·Groep B·FIFA #—

Knockout contender

Edin Džeko: 40 at kickoff with 148 caps — probably his final World Cup.

Rivaal
Switzerland (#17)
Sleutel
Ermedin Demirović (FW)
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1

Toernooivooruitzicht

Analysis

Bosnia and Herzegovina carry a <0.1% probability of winning the tournament (36th of 48). The squad bridges generations: Edin Džeko (40 at kickoff with 148 caps — probably his final world cup) alongside Kerim Alajbegović, the squad's youngest prospect. Drawn in Group B alongside Switzerland, Canada, Qatar, they are projected at 50.4% to advance to the knockout stage.

How they play

Limited recent tournament data is available for Bosnia and Herzegovina's tactical profile. Early indicators suggest a balanced approach.

Path to success

In Group B alongside Switzerland, Canada, Qatar, Bosnia and Herzegovina are projected at 50.4% to advance from the group stage. Qualification to the knockout rounds is the primary target. The round of 32 probability sits at 15.0%. The expanded 48-team format gives smaller federations more runway, and upsets in the group stage are a fixture of every World Cup.

What they must execute

Bosnia and Herzegovina will need to leverage their strengths while managing the physical demands of a tournament spread across three host countries. Managing minutes for Edin Džeko across what could be seven matches will test the coaching staff's rotation planning.

Controversial take

The model's assessment of Bosnia and Herzegovina broadly aligns with their FIFA ranking — no major disagreement between the two systems for this squad.

Key numbers

<0.1%Win probability36th in field
1594Elo ratingRanked 66th globally
17.1Shots per 902nd in the field
15.3%Tournament goal probability — Ermin BičakčićTop projected scorer in the squad (DF)
2.4 yearsManager tenureSergej Barbarez
50.4%Group stage advance probabilityGroup B

How they play

Style vs the 48-team field

Not enough recent match data on file to build a style profile for Bosnia and Herzegovina. Insufficient match coverage.

Percentiles position Bosnia and Herzegovina against the 48-team field — higher means more of that trait, not better or worse. Press is inverted (lower PPDA = higher press); width uses crossing rate as a proxy; tempo is open-play passes per minute of possession. Descriptive style analytics; does not feed the published probabilities.

Group B finish · Bosnia and Herzegovina

Monte Carlo, 50,000 sims

Top two advance to the round of 32; best 8 of 12 third-placed teams also qualify.

  • 1st (group winner)
    Advances to R32
    5.1%
  • 2nd (runner-up)
    Advances to R32
    16.7%
  • 3rd
    Advances only if among the best 8 of 12 third-placed teams
    46.3%
  • 4th
    Eliminated
    31.9%

Stage progression · Bosnia and Herzegovina

, 50,000 sims
  1. 50.8%AdvAdvance from group
  2. 15.5%R16Round of 16
  3. 3.2%QFQuarter-final
  4. 0.4%SFSemi-final
  5. 0.1%FFinal
  6. <0.1%WinWin the tournament

Likely knockout path · Bosnia and Herzegovina

Monte Carlo, 10,000 sims

Most frequent opponents per round, conditional on reaching it.

R32

Round of 32

United States19%
Turkey16%
Australia13%

R16

Round of 16

Belgium20%
Netherlands11%
Morocco9%

QF

Quarter-final

Spain27%
France11%
Uruguay8%

SF

Semi-final

France17%
Spain11%
Switzerland9%

F

Final

Argentina50%
Japan25%
Brazil25%
CalibrationBacktested to a 0.572 Brier score across 987 out-of-sample major-tournament matches (2014–2024): lower is better, and a no-skill 1-in-3 guess scores 0.667. In plain terms, outcomes the model rated 70% likely happened about 70% of the time. Live scoring begins 2026-06-11. See the scoreboard →
2

De selectie

Predicted squad

Model-predicted · snapshot 2026-05-28

No jersey numbers assigned in the underlying source. The 26 below are picked by the model from the team's recent call-up pool.

Goalkeepers (1)
PlayerStat
GK
Nikola VasiljRating-driven→FC St. Pauli
25c—0.75
Defenders (4)
PlayerStat
DF
Sead KolašinacCaps-driven→Atalanta
64c24tackles0.48
DF
Amar DedićRating-drivenBenfica
26c—0.83
DF
Dennis HadžikadunićCaps-drivenSampdoria
30c—0.46
DF
Tarik MuharemovićRating-drivenSassuolo
12c—0.59
Midfielders (3)
PlayerStat
MF
Benjamin TahirovićBrøndby
26c2assists0.53
MF
Amir HadžiahmetovićRecoveringHull City
34c1assists0.61
MF
Armin GigovićRating-drivenYoung Boys
18c1assists0.50
Forwards (3)
PlayerStat
FW
Edin DžekoCaps-driven↗Schalke 04
148c73goals0.69
FW
Ermedin Demirović↘VfB Stuttgart
38c4goals0.83
FW
Samed BaždarRating-drivenJagiellonia Białystok
11c1goals0.52
Bench

★ likely first sub badge on the top-3 by first-sub score within each position group, plus a late-game impact rating where club per-90 stats are available.

Goalkeepers (2)
PlayerStat
GK
Martin ZlomislićRating-drivenRijeka★ Likely first sub
2c—0.51
GK
Osman HadžikićRating-drivenSlaven Belupo★ Likely first sub
0c—0.33
Defenders (5)
PlayerStat
DF
Stjepan RadeljićRating-drivenRijeka★ Likely first sub
4c—0.49
DF
Arjan MalićRating-drivenSturm Graz
6c—0.27
DF
Nikola KatićRecoveringRating-drivenSchalke 04★ Likely first sub
15c—0.44
DF
Nihad MujakićRecoveringRating-drivenGaziantep★ Likely first sub
10c—0.36
DF
Nidal ČelikLens
0c—0.00
Midfielders (6)
PlayerStat
MF
Esmir BajraktarevićRating-drivenPSV★ Likely first sub
14c2assists0.53
MF
Dženis BurnićCaps-drivenKarlsruher SC★ Likely first subimpact 16/100
18c0assists0.30
MF
Ivan BašićAstana★ Likely first sub
15c0assists0.34
MF
Amar MemićViktoria Plzeň
11c3assists0.19
MF
Ivan ŠunjićCaps-drivenPafosimpact 4/100
11c0assists0.12
MF
Kerim AlajbegovićCaps-drivenRed Bull Salzburg
8c4assists0.00
Forwards (2)
PlayerStat
FW
Haris TabakovićRating-drivenBorussia Mönchengladbach★ Likely first sub
10c4goals0.36
FW
Jovo LukićCaps-drivenUniversitatea Cluj★ Likely first sub
1c0goals0.00
▸How to read this squad— 4 columns explained
Pos
Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
Caps
Senior international appearances. Used by the model as a recency-weighted signal of how often the manager calls the player up.
Stat
Position-aware stat: career international goals for forwards; career international assists for midfielders (Transfermarkt); latest available Big-5 club season's total tackles for defenders (FBref); latest available Big-5 club season's save percentage for goalkeepers (FBref). Em-dash when no data is joined — most often for defenders and keepers at non-Big-5 clubs.
Rating
Composite rating (Model #4) — combines recent caps + goals, recent club xG and xAG per 90, position-relative quality, and call-up priors. Higher = the model thinks the player is more likely to start. Typically 0.9 (depth) to 2.5 (elite).
★ Likely first sub — the bench player the model rates most likely to be the first substitute for their position. Computed from a first-sub score (cap-recency + impact rating); ties broken by Rating.

Selection driver — coloured chips show which input dominates a player's selection score. Caps-driven = selected mainly on international experience. Rating-driven = selected mainly on club performance quality. Jersey-boosted = jersey number from a recent squad snapshot lifted their score. Goals-driven = international goal record was the decisive factor. No chip when the score is a balanced blend.

Squad cohesion

Projected XI · club overlap

Low coverage: 3/11 of the projected XI have club-minutes rows in our ratings table. Numbers below are structurally suppressed and should be read alongside the resolved count, not in isolation.

Pairwise club minutes
0.00%
Share of the 55-pair × 3000-minute ceiling. Higher = more of the XI plays together at club level.
Club concentration
0.333
How concentrated the XI is across clubs. 0.091 = 11 different clubs · 1.000 = all the same club.
Top-3 clubs share
100%
3 of 3 play for the three most common clubs in the XI.

Top clubs in projected XI

  • St. Pauli1
  • Atalanta1
  • VfB Stuttgart1

Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →

Squad depth

Projected XI · replaceability

Most irreplaceable starters

  1. Amar DedićFull-backLikely cover: Arjan Malić · 0.27Sturm Graz0.56gap to repl.
  2. Ermedin DemirovićStrikerLikely cover: Haris Tabaković · 0.36Borussia Mönchengladbach0.47gap to repl.
  3. Edin DžekoStrikerLikely cover: Haris Tabaković · 0.36Borussia Mönchengladbach0.33gap to repl.

Gap to repl. = how far this nation's rating at the position falls from the starter to his likely in-squad replacement (named above). Larger = harder to replace.

Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →

3

Groepsschema

Group-stage schedule

MDDateOpponentVenue
1Jun 12, 2026CanadaToronto, Canada
2Jun 18, 2026SwitzerlandInglewood, United States
3Jun 24, 2026QatarSeattle, United States

Onderlinge confrontaties

Verwachte doelpuntenmakers Bosnia and Herzegovina →

4

Verhaallijnen

Storylines

Updated 14 days ago
Last danceEdin Džeko

40 at kickoff with 148 caps — probably his final World Cup.

Form trend

Gained 70 international Elo points over the last 12 months — current rating 1647.

Teen starterKerim Alajbegović

18 at kickoff — 8 caps — projected on the bench, the squad's youngest pick.

From the spot

Converted only 3 of 5 career penalties (60%) — a wasteful record from the spot in knockouts.

5

Vorm en trackrecord

Statistical profile

Balanced

Attack

Attack rating0.4142nd/48
Shots per match17.12nd/48
Chance quality0.10527th/48

Defence

Defence rating0.459th/48
Goalkeeper rating0.5325th/48

GK: Nikola Vasilj

Set pieces

Set-piece goal share8.1%31st/48
Penalty conversion72.0%26th/48
Penalty save rate20.0%30th/48

Style

Possession48.9%29th/48

Squad

Avg. minutes per starter1,85014th/48
Club familiarity0.00018th/48

Workload class: light

Attack and defence ratings from the model; style metrics from recent international matches; penalty rates via Bayesian estimation; goalkeeper rating from shot-prevention data. Rank is out of 48 tournament teams.

Where goals come from

Phase of play · scored & conceded

Bosnia and Herzegovina hasn't appeared in the StatsBomb open-data tournaments, so there's no phase-of-play breakdown on file.

Group-stage matchups

vs Canada
Win17.6%
Draw24.5%
Loss57.9%
Expected goals for0.92
Expected goals against1.38
Likeliest score1-1 (13.3%)
Both teams score45.6%
Clean sheet25.2%
Full fixture analysis →
vs Switzerland
Win9.9%
Draw21.8%
Loss68.3%
Expected goals for0.71
Expected goals against1.96
Likeliest score0-2 (13.3%)
Both teams score44.2%
Clean sheet14.0%
Full fixture analysis →
vs Qatar
Win44.7%
Draw25.6%
Loss29.7%
Expected goals for1.43
Expected goals against1.13
Likeliest score1-1 (13.1%)
Both teams score51.9%
Clean sheet32.5%
Full fixture analysis →

Probabilities from the calibrated ensemble model. xG from the Dixon–Coles fit. See each fixture page for full analysis.

Rating & probability history

10 snapshots · 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-10
Bosnia and Herzegovina — Elo and tournament-winner probability over 10 snapshotsBosnia and Herzegovina trajectory: 10 snapshots between 2026-05-22 and 2026-06-10 (19 days). Elo moved from 1594.0 to 1594.0 (0). Tournament-winner probability moved from 0.0% to <0.1% (0pp).Elo rating15841591159716042026-05-22 · Elo 1594.02026-06-06 · Elo 1594.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-06 · Elo 1594.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-07 · Elo 1594.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-07 · Elo 1594.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-07 · Elo 1594.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-08 · Elo 1594.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-08 · Elo 1594.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-10 · Elo 1594.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-10 · Elo 1594.0 (0 vs prior)Tournament-winner probability0.0%0.3%0.7%1.0%2026-05-22 · 0.0% (CI 0.0%–0.0%)2026-06-06 · <0.1% (CI 0.0%–0.1%) (0pp vs prior)2026-06-06 · <0.1% (CI 0.0%–0.1%) (0pp vs prior)2026-06-07 · <0.1% (CI 0.0%–0.1%) (0pp vs prior)2026-06-07 · <0.1% (CI 0.0%–0.1%) (0pp vs prior)2026-06-07 · <0.1% (CI 0.0%–0.1%) (0pp vs prior)2026-06-08 · 0.0% (CI 0.0%–0.1%) (0pp vs prior)2026-06-08 · <0.1% (CI 0.0%–0.1%) (0pp vs prior)2026-06-10 · <0.1% (CI 0.0%–0.1%) (0pp vs prior)2026-06-10 · <0.1% (CI 0.0%–0.1%) (0pp vs prior)snapshot date (2026-05-22 → 2026-06-10)

Bosnia and Herzegovina trajectory: 10 snapshots between 2026-05-22 and 2026-06-10 (19 days). Elo moved from 1594.0 to 1594.0 (0). Tournament-winner probability moved from 0.0% to <0.1% (0pp).

Each point is one model build. The shaded band is the bootstrap 90% credible interval around the tournament-winner probability.

Recent form (10 matches)

Record4W · 4D · 2L
Goals21–11
Form
DateOpponentScoreResultCompetition
2026-03-31HItaly1–1DFIFA World Cup qualification
2026-03-26AWales1–1DFIFA World Cup qualification
2025-11-18AAustria1–1DFIFA World Cup qualification
2025-11-15HRomania3–1WFIFA World Cup qualification
2025-10-12AMalta4–1WFriendly
2025-10-09ACyprus2–2DFIFA World Cup qualification
2025-09-09HAustria1–2LFIFA World Cup qualification
2025-09-06ASan Marino6–0WFIFA World Cup qualification
2025-06-10ASlovenia1–2LFriendly
2025-06-07HSan Marino1–0WFIFA World Cup qualification

martj42 international results (CC0) · last 10 matches · ~2 years.

Head-to-head vs group opponents

OpponentMeetingsW-D-LLast meeting
Qatar20-1-12010 — Draw (1–1) · Friendly
Switzerland11-0-02016 — Win (2–0) · Friendly
Canada0—No prior meetings

All meetings via the martj42 international results dataset.

Major tournaments — most recent appearance

TournamentYearFinishW-D-LSince then
FIFA World Cup2014Group stage1-0-2
  • New head coach since then — now Sergej Barbarez (appointed 2024)
  • 3/33 of current pool (9%) were active that year

Source: FIFA archives. Penalty outcomes resolved to W/L.

Most similar past team-tournaments

Closest comparable teams from past major tournaments (1990-2024), by squad strength, group draw, and recent form. Shown for context, not a prediction.

  • Slovakia · World Cup 2010

    Exited at the round of 16

    Comparable pre-tournament strength (Elo 1689) and group draw.

  • Slovenia · World Cup 2010

    Exited at the group stage

  • Greece · World Cup 1994

    Exited at the group stage