Turkey

Snapshot · 2026-06-11Model 1.0.0

UEFA·Groep D·FIFA #—

R16 contender

Pragmatic side with a Galatasaray-heavy spine.

Rivaal
United States (#14)
Sleutel
Hakan Çalhanoğlu (MF)
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1

Toernooivooruitzicht

Analysis

Turkey sit in the second tier of contenders with a 0.5% tournament probability (20th in the field). Drawn in Group D alongside United States, Australia, Paraguay, they are projected at 76.7% to advance to the knockout stage.

How they play

Turkey under Vincenzo Montella play a pragmatic game with 50% possession. They apply moderate pressing intensity (PPDA 23.5). They generate a high volume of shots (13.2 per 90) and rely heavily on set pieces (20% of their xG).

Path to success

Turkey face United States, Australia, Paraguay in Group D, with a 76.7% probability of advancing to the knockout rounds. A quarter-final run is realistic at 15.9%, though reaching the semi-finals (5.1%) would represent an exceptional campaign. Navigating the expanded 48-team format, which adds a round of 32, means an extra knockout fixture for any team with title ambitions.

What they must execute

Turkey play a pragmatic, results-oriented game that adapts shape to the opposition. Tactical flexibility is their strength. The risk is inconsistency — without a default identity, a poor result can cascade if the team struggles to find a Plan B.

Controversial take

The model's assessment of Turkey broadly aligns with their FIFA ranking — no major disagreement between the two systems for this squad.

Key numbers

0.5%Win probability20th in field
1902Elo ratingRanked 14th globally
0.082xG per shotbottom quartile (37th of 48)
27.4%Tournament goal probability — Hakan ÇalhanoğluTop projected scorer in the squad (MF)
3.4 yearsManager tenureVincenzo Montella
20%Set piece xG shareAbove-average set piece reliance

How they play

Style vs the 48-team field

Pragmatic · style profile from 8 recent matches

Press
23.5
26
Build-up
7
74
Directness
5.5
29
Width (proxy)
455.8
64
Tempo
9.4
66
Set-piece reliance
20.5
96

What to watch: an above-average reliance on set pieces.

Percentiles position Turkey against the 48-team field — higher means more of that trait, not better or worse. Press is inverted (lower PPDA = higher press); width uses crossing rate as a proxy; tempo is open-play passes per minute of possession. Descriptive style analytics; does not feed the published probabilities.

Group D finish · Turkey

Monte Carlo, 50,000 sims

Top two advance to the round of 32; best 8 of 12 third-placed teams also qualify.

  • 1st (group winner)
    Advances to R32
    31.1%
  • 2nd (runner-up)
    Advances to R32
    26.5%
  • 3rd
    Advances only if among the best 8 of 12 third-placed teams
    23.2%
  • 4th
    Eliminated
    19.2%

Stage progression · Turkey

, 50,000 sims
  1. 76.1%AdvAdvance from group
  2. 40.8%R16Round of 16
  3. 16.2%QFQuarter-final
  4. 5.2%SFSemi-final
  5. 1.8%FFinal
  6. 0.5%WinWin the tournament

Likely knockout path · Turkey

Monte Carlo, 10,000 sims

Most frequent opponents per round, conditional on reaching it.

R32

Round of 32

Iran13%
Bosnia and Herzegovina10%
Germany10%

R16

Round of 16

Argentina19%
Belgium17%
Uruguay9%

QF

Quarter-final

Spain23%
Portugal12%
Colombia11%

SF

Semi-final

France11%
Germany10%
Brazil9%

F

Final

Argentina22%
Brazil10%
England8%
CalibrationBacktested to a 0.572 Brier score across 987 out-of-sample major-tournament matches (2014–2024): lower is better, and a no-skill 1-in-3 guess scores 0.667. In plain terms, outcomes the model rated 70% likely happened about 70% of the time. Live scoring begins 2026-06-11. See the scoreboard →
2

De selectie

Predicted squad

Model-predicted · snapshot 2026-05-28

No jersey numbers assigned in the underlying source. The 26 below are picked by the model from the team's recent call-up pool.

Goalkeepers (1)
PlayerStat
GK
Uğurcan Çakır→Galatasaray
38c—0.87
Defenders (4)
PlayerStat
DF
Zeki ÇelikCaps-driven↗Roma
59c76tackles0.76
DF
Çağlar SöyüncüCaps-drivenFenerbahçe
59c52tackles0.66
DF
Merih DemiralCaps-driven↗Al-Ahli
61c40tackles0.50
DF
Ferdi KadıoğluRating-drivenBrighton & Hove Albion
30c—0.92
Midfielders (3)
PlayerStat
MF
Hakan Çalhanoğlu→Inter Milan
104c21assists0.92
MF
Orkun Kökçü→Beşiktaş
48c10assists0.88
MF
Kaan AyhanCaps-drivenGalatasaray
72c4assists0.30
Forwards (3)
PlayerStat
FW
Kerem Aktürkoğlu→Fenerbahçe
51c15goals0.82
FW
İrfan Can KahveciCaps-drivenKasımpaşa
45c6goals0.68
FW
Barış Alper YılmazGalatasaray
33c2goals0.78
Bench

★ likely first sub badge on the top-3 by first-sub score within each position group, plus a late-game impact rating where club per-90 stats are available.

Goalkeepers (2)
PlayerStat
GK
Mert GünokCaps-drivenFenerbahçe★ Likely first sub
37c—0.54
GK
Altay BayındırRating-drivenManchester United★ Likely first sub
11c—0.90
Defenders (5)
PlayerStat
DF
Mert MüldürCaps-driven→Fenerbahçe★ Likely first sub
43c51tackles0.49
DF
Abdülkerim BardakcıRating-drivenGalatasaray★ Likely first sub
26c—0.73
DF
Eren ElmalıRating-drivenGalatasaray★ Likely first sub
21c—0.62
DF
Ozan KabakCaps-driven↘TSG Hoffenheimimpact 26/100
28c20tackles0.28
DF
Mustafa EskihellaçRating-drivenTrabzonspor
3c—0.41
Midfielders (4)
PlayerStat
MF
İsmail YüksekFenerbahçe★ Likely first sub
31c3assists0.77
MF
Salih ÖzcanCaps-drivenBorussia Dortmund★ Likely first subimpact 47/100
28c1assists0.36
MF
Demir Ege TıknazRating-drivenBeşiktaş★ Likely first sub
1c0assists0.46
MF
Atakan KarazorRating-driven↘VfB Stuttgartimpact 13/100
2c0assists0.29
Forwards (4)
PlayerStat
FW
Kenan YıldızJuventus★ Likely first sub
28c5goals0.73
FW
Yunus AkgünRating-drivenGalatasaray★ Likely first sub
17c3goals0.70
FW
Arda GülerRecoveringReal Madridimpact 59/100
28c6goals0.55
FW
Oğuz AydınRating-drivenFenerbahçe★ Likely first sub
9c0goals0.60
▸How to read this squad— 4 columns explained
Pos
Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
Caps
Senior international appearances. Used by the model as a recency-weighted signal of how often the manager calls the player up.
Stat
Position-aware stat: career international goals for forwards; career international assists for midfielders (Transfermarkt); latest available Big-5 club season's total tackles for defenders (FBref); latest available Big-5 club season's save percentage for goalkeepers (FBref). Em-dash when no data is joined — most often for defenders and keepers at non-Big-5 clubs.
Rating
Composite rating (Model #4) — combines recent caps + goals, recent club xG and xAG per 90, position-relative quality, and call-up priors. Higher = the model thinks the player is more likely to start. Typically 0.9 (depth) to 2.5 (elite).
★ Likely first sub — the bench player the model rates most likely to be the first substitute for their position. Computed from a first-sub score (cap-recency + impact rating); ties broken by Rating.

Selection driver — coloured chips show which input dominates a player's selection score. Caps-driven = selected mainly on international experience. Rating-driven = selected mainly on club performance quality. Jersey-boosted = jersey number from a recent squad snapshot lifted their score. Goals-driven = international goal record was the decisive factor. No chip when the score is a balanced blend.

Squad cohesion

Projected XI · club overlap

Low coverage: 2/11 of the projected XI have club-minutes rows in our ratings table. Numbers below are structurally suppressed and should be read alongside the resolved count, not in isolation.

Pairwise club minutes
0.00%
Share of the 55-pair × 3000-minute ceiling. Higher = more of the XI plays together at club level.
Club concentration
0.500
How concentrated the XI is across clubs. 0.091 = 11 different clubs · 1.000 = all the same club.
Top-3 clubs share
100%
2 of 2 play for the three most common clubs in the XI.

Top clubs in projected XI

  • Atletico Madrid1
  • Inter1

Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →

Squad depth

Projected XI · replaceability

Most irreplaceable starters

  1. Orkun KökçüCentral midfieldLikely cover: no natural backupreplacement-level CM ~0.280.59gap to repl.
  2. Ferdi KadıoğluFull-backLikely cover: Eren Elmalı · 0.62Galatasaray0.30gap to repl.
  3. Zeki ÇelikFull-backLikely cover: Eren Elmalı · 0.62Galatasaray0.15gap to repl.

Gap to repl. = how far this nation's rating at the position falls from the starter to his likely in-squad replacement (named above). Larger = harder to replace.

Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →

3

Groepsschema

Group-stage schedule

MDDateOpponentVenue
1Jun 13, 2026AustraliaVancouver, Canada
2Jun 19, 2026ParaguaySanta Clara, United States
3Jun 25, 2026United StatesInglewood, United States

Onderlinge confrontaties

Verwachte doelpuntenmakers Turkey →

4

Verhaallijnen

Storylines

Updated 14 days ago
Club core

6 of 26 predicted-squad players play their club football for Galatasaray — a single-club spine on the international side.

Form trend

Gained 68 international Elo points over the last 12 months — current rating 1958.

Dead-ballHakan Çalhanoğlu

Takes corners, free kicks, and penalties — the team's dead-ball threat.

TouchlineVincenzo Montella

First World Cup as head coach, appointed 2023.

5

Vorm en trackrecord

Statistical profile

Pragmatic

Attack

Attack rating0.9418th/48
Shots per match13.212th/48
Chance quality0.08237th/48

Defence

Defence rating0.5814th/48
Goalkeeper rating0.5517th/48

GK: Uğurcan Çakır

Set pieces

Set-piece goal share20.5%2nd/48
Penalty conversion73.3%17th/48
Penalty save rate20.0%47th/48

Style

Possession49.5%24th/48
Press intensity23.530th/48
Directness5.529th/48
Crossing volume455.815th/48
Long ball volume33.027th/48
Build-up length7.011th/48

Squad

Avg. minutes per starter76340th/48
Club familiarity0.00046th/48

Workload class: low

Attack and defence ratings from the model; style metrics from recent international matches; penalty rates via Bayesian estimation; goalkeeper rating from shot-prevention data. Rank is out of 48 tournament teams.

Where goals come from

Phase of play · scored & conceded

Scored9 goals · 113 shots
Conceded13 goals · 133 shots
  • Open play
  • Set piece
  • Counter
  • Penalty

Share of goals by how the chance began, across 8 matches (Euro2020,Euro2024). Shoot-out kicks are excluded. Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →

Group-stage matchups

vs Australia
Win38.6%
Draw26.0%
Loss35.4%
Expected goals for1.23
Expected goals against1.17
Likeliest score1-1 (13.7%)
Both teams score49.5%
Clean sheet30.9%
Full fixture analysis →
vs Paraguay
Win40.2%
Draw27.8%
Loss32.0%
Expected goals for1.15
Expected goals against1.01
Likeliest score1-1 (14.0%)
Both teams score44.0%
Clean sheet36.4%
Full fixture analysis →
vs United States
Win43.5%
Draw25.8%
Loss30.8%
Expected goals for1.34
Expected goals against1.15
Likeliest score1-1 (13.4%)
Both teams score51.0%
Clean sheet31.7%
Full fixture analysis →

Probabilities from the calibrated ensemble model. xG from the Dixon–Coles fit. See each fixture page for full analysis.

Rating & probability history

10 snapshots · 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-10
Turkey — Elo and tournament-winner probability over 10 snapshotsTurkey trajectory: 10 snapshots between 2026-05-22 and 2026-06-10 (19 days). Elo moved from 1903.0 to 1902.0 (−1.0). Tournament-winner probability moved from 0.2% to 0.5% (+0.3pp).Elo rating18931899190619132026-05-22 · Elo 1903.02026-06-06 · Elo 1902.0 (−1.0 vs prior)2026-06-06 · Elo 1902.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-07 · Elo 1902.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-07 · Elo 1902.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-07 · Elo 1902.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-08 · Elo 1902.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-08 · Elo 1902.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-10 · Elo 1902.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-10 · Elo 1902.0 (0 vs prior)Tournament-winner probability0.0%0.5%0.9%1.4%2026-05-22 · 0.2% (CI 0.1%–0.7%)2026-06-06 · 0.6% (CI 0.3%–0.7%) (+0.3pp vs prior)2026-06-06 · 0.6% (CI 0.3%–0.7%) (0pp vs prior)2026-06-07 · 0.5% (CI 0.3%–0.7%) (−0.1pp vs prior)2026-06-07 · 0.6% (CI 0.3%–0.7%) (+0.1pp vs prior)2026-06-07 · 0.6% (CI 0.3%–0.7%) (0pp vs prior)2026-06-08 · 0.1% (CI 0.3%–0.7%) (−0.5pp vs prior)2026-06-08 · 0.5% (CI 0.3%–0.7%) (+0.5pp vs prior)2026-06-10 · 0.5% (CI 0.3%–0.7%) (0pp vs prior)2026-06-10 · 0.5% (CI 0.3%–0.7%) (0pp vs prior)snapshot date (2026-05-22 → 2026-06-10)

Turkey trajectory: 10 snapshots between 2026-05-22 and 2026-06-10 (19 days). Elo moved from 1903.0 to 1902.0 (−1.0). Tournament-winner probability moved from 0.2% to 0.5% (+0.3pp).

Each point is one model build. The shaded band is the bootstrap 90% credible interval around the tournament-winner probability.

Recent form (10 matches)

Record7W · 1D · 2L
Goals21–14
Form
DateOpponentScoreResultCompetition
2026-03-31AKosovo1–0WFIFA World Cup qualification
2026-03-26HRomania1–0WFIFA World Cup qualification
2025-11-18ASpain2–2DFIFA World Cup qualification
2025-11-15HBulgaria2–0WFIFA World Cup qualification
2025-10-14HGeorgia4–1WFIFA World Cup qualification
2025-10-11ABulgaria6–1WFIFA World Cup qualification
2025-09-07HSpain0–6LFIFA World Cup qualification
2025-09-04AGeorgia3–2WFIFA World Cup qualification
2025-06-10NMexico0–1LFriendly
2025-06-07AUnited States2–1WFriendly

martj42 international results (CC0) · last 10 matches · ~2 years.

Head-to-head vs group opponents

OpponentMeetingsW-D-LLast meeting
United States52-1-22025 — Win (2–1) · Friendly
Australia22-0-02004 — Win (1–0) · Friendly
Paraguay0—No prior meetings

All meetings via the martj42 international results dataset.

Major tournaments — most recent appearance

TournamentYearFinishW-D-LSince then
UEFA Euro2024Quarter-finals3-0-2
  • Same head coach (Vincenzo Montella) since 2023
  • 23/31 of current pool (74%) were active that year
FIFA World Cup20023rd place4-1-2
  • New head coach since then — now Vincenzo Montella (appointed 2023)
  • 0/31 of current pool (0%) were active that year

Source: FIFA archives. Penalty outcomes resolved to W/L.

Most similar past team-tournaments

Closest comparable teams from past major tournaments (1990-2024), by squad strength, group draw, and recent form. Shown for context, not a prediction.

  • Italy · World Cup 1994

    Won the tournament

    Comparable pre-tournament strength (Elo 1934) and group draw.

  • Czech Republic · Euro 2008

    Exited at the group stage

  • Ukraine · Euro 2024

    Exited at the group stage