Initial published version. Calibrated ensemble of FIFA-Elo (Model 1), Dixon-Coles (Model 2), and hierarchical Bayesian Poisson (Model 3), with per-class isotonic calibration split across friendly / qualifier / tournament tiers. Per-player anytime-scorer (Model 5) on top of the Model 4 composite rating, with the Model 4b goalkeeper rating and the Model 18 starting-GK defence offset on the predict path.