다음 경기 · Group A · Matchday 1
Mexico vs South Africa
11 Jun 2026 · Mexico City, Mexico
2026 월드컵 개막전 무료 라이브 트래커입니다. 공개된 경기 전 확률은 보정된 앙상블 모델에서 나오며 라인업 확정 시점에 동결됩니다. 경기 후 리뷰는 이 동결된 수치를 결과와 대조합니다. 경기 중에는 별도의 라이브 승리 확률이 현재 스코어와 남은 시간에 맞춰 모델을 다시 읽습니다. 약 1분마다 갱신되고 지연이 있으며, 어디까지나 설명적 수치로 사행성 상품이 아닙니다. 방법론: 방법론 문서.
Live score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.
Analysis
The model rates Mexico as clear favourites at 59.5%, with South Africa at 13.4% and the draw at 27.2%. The Elo gap is substantial at 336 points in Mexico's favour, reflecting a clear strength differential in recent form. In Group A, Mexico are expected to advance (96.0%) while South Africa face a tighter path (22.9%) — this result could be decisive for South Africa's campaign.
Tactical matchup
Mexico (high press) meet South Africa (balanced) — contrasting tactical identities that should shape the contest. Mexico press significantly higher (PPDA 16.1) — their ability to force turnovers in advanced positions will be a key tactical dynamic.
Key battlegrounds
Mexico must sustain their pressing intensity to force turnovers in advanced positions. The individual battle features Raúl Jiménez (P(scores) 9.3%) against Evidence Makgopa (3.0%) — their impact could prove decisive.
Situational factors
South Africa face a 14,106km journey to the venue versus Mexico's 14km — acclimatisation and fatigue could factor into the second half. South Africa's Hugo Broos (5.4 years in post) brings significantly more tenure than Javier Aguirre (2.4 years) — squad cohesion and tactical familiarity may differ accordingly.
Match storyline
At 13.4%, a South Africa result would qualify as a genuine upset — the kind of group-stage surprise every World Cup produces.
Key numbers
Latest news & match context
- World Cup Daily: Finally, the biggest tournament ever is about to begin with Mexico vs. SA · ESPN · 11 Jun
- World Cup predictions: Mexico vs South Africa, South Korea vs Czech Republic on matchday 1 · The New York Times · 11 Jun
- Stage:
- Group A · Matchday 1
Mexico
Mexico: 2 carrying a fitness doubt.
- DoubtCésar Montes, a projected starter at defender, is recovering from Leg injury and is a fitness watch item; if unavailable the projected XI shifts.
- DoubtJulián Araujo (defender) is carrying Hamstring injury — a depth-level fitness watch item.
South Africa
South Africa come in at close to full strength.
Mexico faces defensive uncertainty with key defender César Montes doubtful due to a leg injury.
Fellow defender Julián Araujo is also a doubt with a hamstring issue.
South Africa, by contrast, reports a fully fit squad.
Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.
Pre-match forecast
goals
이 경기의 공개 확률은 라인업 확정 시점(킥오프 약 1시간 전)에 고정되며 이후 갱신되지 않습니다. 경기 후 리뷰가 책임을 묻는 수치가 바로 이것입니다. 라이브 섹션의 라이브 승리 확률은 별도의 지연 제공 설명적 추정치로, 공개된 예측을 대체하지 않습니다.
Most likely scorelines
- 1–016.9%
- 0–014.5%
- 1–113.1%
- 2–011.0%
- 0–19.4%
From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.
Live descriptive stats
Descriptive stats — accumulated xG, shots, shots on target, possession share, corners, fouls, cards — appear here from first whistle. Stats describe the match as played; they don't change the pre-match probability shown above.
Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.
Live commentary & events· awaiting kick-off
Goals, cards, substitutions, and VAR reviews appear here as they happen, alongside a short auto-generated commentary line for each. The feed updates within roughly a minute of each event being recorded by API-Football.