Egypt
Snapshot · 2026-06-11Model 1.0.0CAF·G조·FIFA #34
Pragmatic side missing Mohamed Salah through injury, with an Al Ahly-heavy spine.
- 라이벌
- Belgium (#8)
- 핵심
- Omar Marmoush (FW)
Final squad announced · Egypt · 2026-05-21
Source: Reddit — /r/worldcup ↗토너먼트 전망
Analysis
Egypt carry a 0.2% probability of winning the tournament (29th of 48). A key storyline is the fitness of Mohamed Salah — thigh problems, no expected return. Drawn in Group G alongside Belgium, Iran, New Zealand, they are projected at 67.8% to advance to the knockout stage.
How they play
Egypt under Hossam Hassan play a pragmatic game with 51% possession. They apply moderate pressing intensity (PPDA 21.8). They generate a high volume of shots (13.7 per 90).
Path to success
In Group G alongside Belgium, Iran, New Zealand, Egypt are projected at 67.8% to advance from the group stage. Qualification to the knockout rounds is the primary target. The round of 32 probability sits at 30.2%. The expanded 48-team format gives smaller federations more runway, and upsets in the group stage are a fixture of every World Cup.
What they must execute
Egypt play a pragmatic, results-oriented game that adapts shape to the opposition. Tactical flexibility is their strength. The risk is inconsistency — without a default identity, a poor result can cascade if the team struggles to find a Plan B. Managing the fitness of Mohamed Salah could prove decisive — their availability transforms the team's ceiling.
Controversial take
The model's assessment of Egypt broadly aligns with their FIFA ranking — no major disagreement between the two systems for this squad.
Key numbers
How they play
Style vs the 48-team field
Pragmatic · style profile from 7 recent matches
What to watch: an above-average reliance on set pieces.
Percentiles position Egypt against the 48-team field — higher means more of that trait, not better or worse. Press is inverted (lower PPDA = higher press); width uses crossing rate as a proxy; tempo is open-play passes per minute of possession. Descriptive style analytics; does not feed the published probabilities.
Group G finish · Egypt
Monte Carlo, 50,000 simsTop two advance to the round of 32; best 8 of 12 third-placed teams also qualify.
- 13.1%1st (group winner)Advances to R32
- 28.2%2nd (runner-up)Advances to R32
- 37.3%3rdAdvances only if among the best 8 of 12 third-placed teams
- 21.3%4thEliminated
Stage progression · Egypt
, 50,000 sims- 67.2%AdvAdvance from group
- 30.4%R16Round of 16
- 9.6%QFQuarter-final
- 2.6%SFSemi-final
- 0.8%FFinal
- 0.2%WinWin the tournament
Likely knockout path · Egypt
Monte Carlo, 10,000 sims스쿼드
Confirmed squad
Model-predicted · snapshot 2026-05-28Roster confirmed by the federation's official squad announcement. The XI/bench split below is the model's composite-rating ordering, not the head coach's lineup.
★ likely first sub badge on the top-3 by first-sub score within each position group, plus a late-game impact rating where club per-90 stats are available.
▸How to read this squad— 4 columns explained
- Pos
- Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
- Caps
- Senior international appearances. Used by the model as a recency-weighted signal of how often the manager calls the player up.
- Stat
- Position-aware stat: career international goals for forwards; career international assists for midfielders (Transfermarkt); latest available Big-5 club season's total tackles for defenders (FBref); latest available Big-5 club season's save percentage for goalkeepers (FBref). Em-dash when no data is joined — most often for defenders and keepers at non-Big-5 clubs.
- Rating
- Composite rating (Model #4) — combines recent caps + goals, recent club xG and xAG per 90, position-relative quality, and call-up priors. Higher = the model thinks the player is more likely to start. Typically 0.9 (depth) to 2.5 (elite).
Selection driver — coloured chips show which input dominates a player's selection score. Caps-driven = selected mainly on international experience. Rating-driven = selected mainly on club performance quality. Jersey-boosted = jersey number from a recent squad snapshot lifted their score. Goals-driven = international goal record was the decisive factor. No chip when the score is a balanced blend.
Squad cohesion
Projected XI · club overlap
Low coverage: 4/11 of the projected XI have club-minutes rows in our ratings table. Numbers below are structurally suppressed and should be read alongside the resolved count, not in isolation.
- Pairwise club minutes
- 0.00%
- Share of the 55-pair × 3000-minute ceiling. Higher = more of the XI plays together at club level.
- Club concentration
- 0.250
- How concentrated the XI is across clubs. 0.091 = 11 different clubs · 1.000 = all the same club.
- Top-3 clubs share
- 75%
- 3 of 4 play for the three most common clubs in the XI.
Top clubs in projected XI
- Nice1
- Arsenal1
- Eintracht Frankfurt1
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Squad depth
Projected XI · replaceability
Most irreplaceable starters
- Omar MarmoushStrikerLikely cover: no natural backupreplacement-level ST ~0.220.71gap to repl.
- Mohamed SalahWingerLikely cover: Ibrahim Adel · 0.39Nordsjælland0.35gap to repl.
- Mohamed El ShenawyGoalkeeperLikely cover: Mostafa Shobeir · 0.38Al Ahly0.24gap to repl.
Gap to repl. = how far this nation's rating at the position falls from the starter to his likely in-squad replacement (named above). Larger = harder to replace.
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
조별 리그 일정
Group-stage schedule
| MD | Date | Opponent | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jun 15, 2026 | Belgium | Seattle, United States |
| 2 | Jun 21, 2026 | New Zealand | Vancouver, Canada |
| 3 | Jun 26, 2026 | Iran | Seattle, United States |
상대 전적
주요 이야기
Storylines
Updated 14 days agoThigh problems, no expected return. Composite 0.96 — would have been a likely starter.
5 of 23 predicted-squad players play their club football for Al Ahly — a single-club spine on the international side.
18 at kickoff — 0 caps — projected on the bench, the squad's youngest pick.
Only 2 of 23 predicted-squad players played in a top-5 European league last season — the rest play home or in non-top-5 leagues.
폼 및 과거 기록
Statistical profile
PragmaticAttack
Defence
GK: Mohamed El Shenawy
Set pieces
Style
Squad
Workload class: light
Attack and defence ratings from the model; style metrics from recent international matches; penalty rates via Bayesian estimation; goalkeeper rating from shot-prevention data. Rank is out of 48 tournament teams.
Where goals come from
Phase of play · scored & conceded
- Open play
- Set piece
- Counter
- Penalty
Share of goals by how the chance began, across 7 matches (AFCON2023,WC2018). Shoot-out kicks are excluded. Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Group-stage matchups
Probabilities from the calibrated ensemble model. xG from the Dixon–Coles fit. See each fixture page for full analysis.
Rating & probability history
10 snapshots · 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-10Egypt trajectory: 10 snapshots between 2026-05-22 and 2026-06-10 (19 days). Elo moved from 1689.0 to 1689.0 (0). Tournament-winner probability moved from 0.1% to 0.2% (+0.1pp).
Each point is one model build. The shaded band is the bootstrap 90% credible interval around the tournament-winner probability.
Recent form (10 matches)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | ASpain | 0–0 | D | Friendly |
| 2026-03-27 | ASaudi Arabia | 4–0 | W | Friendly |
| 2026-01-17 | NNigeria | 0–0 | D | African Cup of Nations |
| 2026-01-14 | NSenegal | 0–1 | L | African Cup of Nations |
| 2026-01-10 | NIvory Coast | 3–2 | W | African Cup of Nations |
| 2026-01-05 | NBenin | 3–1 | W | African Cup of Nations |
| 2025-12-29 | NAngola | 0–0 | D | African Cup of Nations |
| 2025-12-26 | NSouth Africa | 1–0 | W | African Cup of Nations |
| 2025-12-22 | NZimbabwe | 2–1 | W | African Cup of Nations |
| 2025-12-09 | NJordan | 0–3 | L | Arab Cup |
martj42 international results (CC0) · last 10 matches · ~2 years.
Head-to-head vs group opponents
| Opponent | Meetings | W-D-L | Last meeting |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium | 4 | 3-0-1 | 2022 — Win (2–1) · Friendly |
| New Zealand | 3 | 2-1-0 | 2024 — Win (1–0) · FIFA Series |
| Iran | 1 | 1-0-0 | 2000 — Win (1–1) · Friendly |
All meetings via the martj42 international results dataset.
Major tournaments — most recent appearance
| Tournament | Year | Finish | W-D-L | Since then |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| African Cup of Nations | 2026 | 4 matches | 2-1-1 |
|
| FIFA World Cup | 2018 | Group stage | 0-0-3 |
|
Source: FIFA archives. Penalty outcomes resolved to W/L.
Most similar past team-tournaments
Closest comparable teams from past major tournaments (1990-2024), by squad strength, group draw, and recent form. Shown for context, not a prediction.
Morocco · Afcon 2017
Exited at the quarter-final
Comparable pre-tournament strength (Elo 1670) and group draw.
Algeria · Afcon 2015
Exited at the quarter-final
Tunisia · Afcon 2000
Finished third