Mesuré en public

2 Jul 2026

Chaque probabilité ci-dessous a été publiée avant le coup d'envoi et verrouillée. Cette page note chacune d'elles par rapport à ce qui s'est réellement passé.

3 sur 3 matchs notés
0
Dans le mille
Forte confiance, bon résultat
3
Bonne lecture
A donné le plus de probabilité à ce qui s'est passé
0
Attendu
Le résultat était dans la fourchette
0
Surprise
Le modèle ne l'avait pas vu venir

Moyenne du jour : Strong read

  • United StatesvsBosnia and Herzegovina
    NotésVerrouillé 28 Jun
    2 – 0
    • United States · réalisé54.8%
    • Match nul28.2%
    • Bosnia and Herzegovina17.0%
    Verdict
    Strong read

    United States 2–0 Bosnia and Herzegovina was the outcome the model rated most likely (54.8% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.313, better than the 0.667 no-skill mark.

    Match ratings

    Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.

    United States
    7Sergiño DestRBShowed good attacking intent from his defensive position, nearly scoring with a header.
    4Folarin BalogunSTScored a goal but was sent off with a red card, significantly impacting his team's numerical advantage.
    Bosnia and Herzegovina
    8FrizGKMade several crucial saves, including a close-range stop and punching away dangerous corners, keeping his team in the game.
    5Amar MemićRegistered one of his team's few attacking attempts, though his low shot went wide.
  • PortugalvsCroatia
    NotésVerrouillé 28 Jun
    2 – 1
    • Portugal · réalisé49.1%
    • Match nul27.2%
    • Croatia23.6%
    Verdict
    Strong read

    Portugal 2–1 Croatia was the outcome the model rated most likely (49.1% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.389, better than the 0.667 no-skill mark.

    Match ratings

    Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.

    Portugal
    9RonaldoSTConverted a crucial penalty to equalize for Portugal and was a constant offensive threat, demonstrating leadership.
    Croatia
    8PerisicOpened the scoring for Croatia with a well-placed shot, demonstrating clinical finishing.
    7VlašićShowed good attacking instincts by scoring, though it was disallowed for offside.
    7SučićDisplayed good attacking awareness and finishing by scoring, even if the goal was negated by an offside call.
  • SpainvsAustria
    NotésVerrouillé 28 Jun
    3 – 0
    • Spain · réalisé57.5%
    • Match nul27.1%
    • Austria15.4%
    Verdict
    Strong read

    Spain 3–0 Austria was the outcome the model rated most likely (57.5% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.278, better than the 0.667 no-skill mark.

    Match ratings

    Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.

    Spain
    8Mikel OyarzabalAMScored Spain's crucial opening goal with a clinical and composed finish, breaking the deadlock.
    8Dani OlmoAMWas a constant attacking threat, forcing a brilliant save and hitting the woodwork twice, unlucky not to score.
    8Pedro PorroRBScored Spain's second goal with a well-timed run and composed finish from his full-back position.
    Austria
    9Alexander SchlagerGKMade multiple crucial and impressive saves, preventing a much larger defeat for Austria despite conceding three goals.

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Model report card — 2 Jul 2026 · onthepitch