Croatia
Snapshot · 2026-06-11Model 1.0.0UEFA·Groupe L·FIFA #10
Press-and-cover side.
Formation récente : 4-3-3 (6 sur 7)
- Adversaire
- England (#4)
- Clé
- Ante Budimir (FW)
Final squad announced · Croatia · 2026-05-18
Source: USA Today ↗Perspectives du tournoi
Analysis
Croatia sit in the second tier of contenders with a 2.4% tournament probability (11th in the field). The squad bridges generations: Ivan Perišić (37 at kickoff with 152 caps — probably his final world cup) alongside Luka Vušković, the squad's youngest prospect. Drawn in Group L alongside England, Panama, Ghana, they are projected at 94.3% to advance to the knockout stage.
How they play
Croatia under Zlatko Dalić play a structured press game, holding 54% of the ball — among the highest in the tournament field. Their likely shape is a 4-3-3, though they have also used 4-2-3-1. They apply moderate pressing intensity (PPDA 20.4) and build patiently through midfield with 7.1 passes per attacking sequence. They favour high-quality chances (xG/shot 0.142, among the best in the field).
Path to success
Croatia face England, Panama, Ghana in Group L, with a 94.3% probability of advancing to the knockout rounds. A quarter-final run is realistic at 26.0%, though reaching the semi-finals (13.2%) would represent an exceptional campaign. Navigating the expanded 48-team format, which adds a round of 32, means an extra knockout fixture for any team with title ambitions.
What they must execute
Croatia need their high press to force turnovers in dangerous areas — if opponents can play through the press, the space left behind is vulnerable. Physical conditioning and squad rotation will be critical to sustain pressing intensity across a long tournament. Managing minutes for Ivan Perišić across what could be seven matches will test the coaching staff's rotation planning.
Controversial take
The model rates Croatia slightly lower than their FIFA ranking implies (a gap of 1.9 percentage points) — a modest divergence but one that reflects differences in how the two systems weight recent form.
Key numbers
How they play
Style vs the 48-team field
Structured press · style profile from 21 recent matches
What to watch: heavy use of the flanks (crossing proxy).
Percentiles position Croatia against the 48-team field — higher means more of that trait, not better or worse. Press is inverted (lower PPDA = higher press); width uses crossing rate as a proxy; tempo is open-play passes per minute of possession. Descriptive style analytics; does not feed the published probabilities.
Group L finish · Croatia
Monte Carlo, 50,000 simsTop two advance to the round of 32; best 8 of 12 third-placed teams also qualify.
- 32.5%1st (group winner)Advances to R32
- 48.6%2nd (runner-up)Advances to R32
- 14.8%3rdAdvances only if among the best 8 of 12 third-placed teams
- 4.1%4thEliminated
Stage progression · Croatia
, 50,000 sims- 92.4%AdvAdvance from group
- 50.3%R16Round of 16
- 26.8%QFQuarter-final
- 13.9%SFSemi-final
- 6.4%FFinal
- 2.6%WinWin the tournament
Likely knockout path · Croatia
Monte Carlo, 10,000 simsL'effectif
Confirmed squad
Model-predicted · snapshot 2026-05-28Roster confirmed by the federation's official squad announcement. The XI/bench split below is the model's composite-rating ordering, not the head coach's lineup.
★ likely first sub badge on the top-3 by first-sub score within each position group, plus a late-game impact rating where club per-90 stats are available.
▸How to read this squad— 4 columns explained
- Pos
- Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
- Caps
- Senior international appearances. Used by the model as a recency-weighted signal of how often the manager calls the player up.
- Stat
- Position-aware stat: career international goals for forwards; career international assists for midfielders (Transfermarkt); latest available Big-5 club season's total tackles for defenders (FBref); latest available Big-5 club season's save percentage for goalkeepers (FBref). Em-dash when no data is joined — most often for defenders and keepers at non-Big-5 clubs.
- Rating
- Composite rating (Model #4) — combines recent caps + goals, recent club xG and xAG per 90, position-relative quality, and call-up priors. Higher = the model thinks the player is more likely to start. Typically 0.9 (depth) to 2.5 (elite).
Selection driver — coloured chips show which input dominates a player's selection score. Caps-driven = selected mainly on international experience. Rating-driven = selected mainly on club performance quality. Jersey-boosted = jersey number from a recent squad snapshot lifted their score. Goals-driven = international goal record was the decisive factor. No chip when the score is a balanced blend.
Squad cohesion
Projected XI · club overlap
- Pairwise club minutes
- 3.00%
- Share of the 55-pair × 3000-minute ceiling. Higher = more of the XI plays together at club level.
- Club concentration
- 0.161
- How concentrated the XI is across clubs. 0.091 = 11 different clubs · 1.000 = all the same club.
- Top-3 clubs share
- 56%
- 5 of 9 play for the three most common clubs in the XI.
Top clubs in projected XI
- Manchester City2
- Torino2
- Fiorentina1
Most-connected club pair
Joško Gvardiol + Mateo Kovačić — Manchester City, 2024-25 · 3,760 shared minutes
Show next 1
- Borna Sosa + Nikola Vlašić — Torino, 2024-25 · 1,195 min
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Squad depth
Projected XI · replaceability
Most irreplaceable starters
- Dominik LivakovićGoalkeeperLikely cover: Ivor Pandur · 0.51Hull City0.40gap to repl.
- Marin PongračićCentre-backLikely cover: Martin Erlić · 0.69Midtjylland0.16gap to repl.
- Josip ŠutaloCentre-backLikely cover: Martin Erlić · 0.69Midtjylland0.16gap to repl.
Gap to repl. = how far this nation's rating at the position falls from the starter to his likely in-squad replacement (named above). Larger = harder to replace.
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Calendrier du groupe
Group-stage schedule
Confrontations directes
Histoires à suivre
Storylines
Updated 14 days agoField's #1 defender in the WC2026 pool by composite rating (0.99).
37 at kickoff with 152 caps — probably his final World Cup.
19 at kickoff — 4 caps — projected on the bench, the squad's youngest pick.
9-year tenure — one of the longest in international football.
Forme et palmarès
Statistical profile
Structured PressAttack
Defence
GK: Dominik Livaković
Set pieces
Style
Squad
Workload class: light
Attack and defence ratings from the model; style metrics from recent international matches; penalty rates via Bayesian estimation; goalkeeper rating from shot-prevention data. Rank is out of 48 tournament teams.
Where goals come from
Phase of play · scored & conceded
- Open play
- Set piece
- Counter
- Penalty
Share of goals by how the chance began, across 21 matches (Euro2020,Euro2024,WC2018,WC2022). Shoot-out kicks are excluded. Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Group-stage matchups
Probabilities from the calibrated ensemble model. xG from the Dixon–Coles fit. See each fixture page for full analysis.
Rating & probability history
10 snapshots · 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-10Croatia trajectory: 10 snapshots between 2026-05-22 and 2026-06-10 (19 days). Elo moved from 1930.0 to 1930.0 (0). Tournament-winner probability moved from 2.1% to 2.6% (+0.5pp).
Each point is one model build. The shaded band is the bootstrap 90% credible interval around the tournament-winner probability.
Recent form (10 matches)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | NBrazil | 1–3 | L | Friendly |
| 2026-03-26 | NColombia | 2–1 | W | Friendly |
| 2025-11-17 | AMontenegro | 3–2 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-11-14 | HFaroe Islands | 3–1 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-10-12 | HGibraltar | 3–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-10-09 | ACzech Republic | 0–0 | D | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-09-08 | HMontenegro | 4–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-09-05 | AFaroe Islands | 1–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-06-09 | HCzech Republic | 5–1 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-06-06 | NGibraltar | 7–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
martj42 international results (CC0) · last 10 matches · ~2 years.
Head-to-head vs group opponents
| Opponent | Meetings | W-D-L | Last meeting |
|---|---|---|---|
| England | 11 | 3-2-6 | 2021 — Loss (0–1) · UEFA Euro |
| Ghana | 0 | — | No prior meetings |
| Panama | 0 | — | No prior meetings |
All meetings via the martj42 international results dataset.
Major tournaments — most recent appearance
| Tournament | Year | Finish | W-D-L | Since then |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UEFA Euro | 2024 | Group stage | 0-2-1 |
|
| FIFA World Cup | 2022 | 3rd place | 2-4-1 |
|
Source: FIFA archives. Penalty outcomes resolved to W/L.
Most similar past team-tournaments
Closest comparable teams from past major tournaments (1990-2024), by squad strength, group draw, and recent form. Shown for context, not a prediction.
England · World Cup 2018
Finished fourth
Comparable pre-tournament strength (Elo 1987) and group draw.
Germany · World Cup 2010
Finished third
Belgium · World Cup 2018
Finished third