Misurato in pubblico

2 Jul 2026

Ogni probabilità qui sotto è stata pubblicata prima del calcio d'inizio e bloccata. Questa pagina valuta ciascuna in base a ciò che è realmente accaduto.

3 di 3 partite valutate
0
Centrata in pieno
Alta fiducia, risultato giusto
3
Lettura forte
Ha dato più probabilità a ciò che è accaduto
0
Previsto
Il risultato rientrava nella gamma
0
Sorpresa
Il modello non se lo aspettava

Media del giorno: Strong read

  • ValutataBloccata 28 Jun
    20
    • United States · realizzato54.8%
    • Pareggio28.2%
    • Bosnia and Herzegovina17.0%
    Verdetto
    Strong read

    United States 2–0 Bosnia and Herzegovina was the outcome the model rated most likely (54.8% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.313, better than the 0.667 no-skill mark.

    Match ratings

    Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.

    United States
    7Sergiño DestRBShowed good attacking intent from his defensive position, nearly scoring with a header.
    4Folarin BalogunSTScored a goal but was sent off with a red card, significantly impacting his team's numerical advantage.
    Bosnia and Herzegovina
    8FrizGKMade several crucial saves, including a close-range stop and punching away dangerous corners, keeping his team in the game.
    5Amar MemićRegistered one of his team's few attacking attempts, though his low shot went wide.
  • ValutataBloccata 28 Jun
    21
    • Portugal · realizzato49.1%
    • Pareggio27.2%
    • Croatia23.6%
    Verdetto
    Strong read

    Portugal 2–1 Croatia was the outcome the model rated most likely (49.1% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.389, better than the 0.667 no-skill mark.

    Match ratings

    Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.

    Portugal
    9RonaldoSTConverted a crucial penalty to equalize for Portugal and was a constant offensive threat, demonstrating leadership.
    Croatia
    8PerisicOpened the scoring for Croatia with a well-placed shot, demonstrating clinical finishing.
    7VlašićShowed good attacking instincts by scoring, though it was disallowed for offside.
    7SučićDisplayed good attacking awareness and finishing by scoring, even if the goal was negated by an offside call.
  • ValutataBloccata 28 Jun
    30
    • Spain · realizzato57.5%
    • Pareggio27.1%
    • Austria15.4%
    Verdetto
    Strong read

    Spain 3–0 Austria was the outcome the model rated most likely (57.5% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.278, better than the 0.667 no-skill mark.

    Match ratings

    Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.

    Spain
    8Mikel OyarzabalAMScored Spain's crucial opening goal with a clinical and composed finish, breaking the deadlock.
    8Dani OlmoAMWas a constant attacking threat, forcing a brilliant save and hitting the woodwork twice, unlucky not to score.
    8Pedro PorroRBScored Spain's second goal with a well-timed run and composed finish from his full-back position.
    Austria
    9Alexander SchlagerGKMade multiple crucial and impressive saves, preventing a much larger defeat for Austria despite conceding three goals.

See how the forecast holds up

OnThePitch grades every probability against what actually happens, and publishes the calibration in the open. Subscribe to follow the retrospectives and research as they ship — one email per post, no marketing.

Already read on Substack? Follow OnThePitch there — same posts, slightly different format.

Model report card — 2 Jul 2026 · onthepitch