Scotland
Snapshot · 2026-06-11Model 1.0.0UEFA·Groupe C·FIFA #36
Compact low-block side with a Rangers-heavy spine.
- Adversaire
- Brazil (#5)
- Clé
- Ché Adams (FW)
Perspectives du tournoi
Analysis
Scotland carry a 0.1% probability of winning the tournament (32nd of 48). Watch for Ben Gannon-Doak — 20 at kickoff — 12 caps — projected on the bench, the squad's youngest pick. Drawn in Group C alongside Brazil, Morocco, Haiti, they are projected at 73.6% to advance to the knockout stage.
How they play
Scotland under Steve Clarke play a low block game, with just 44% possession — among the lowest in the field. They apply moderate pressing intensity (PPDA 26.0) and move the ball forward quickly at 5.7 passes per attack. They are selective in their shooting (9.2 per 90).
Path to success
In Group C alongside Brazil, Morocco, Haiti, Scotland are projected at 73.6% to advance from the group stage. Qualification to the knockout rounds is the primary target. The round of 32 probability sits at 24.9%. The expanded 48-team format gives smaller federations more runway, and upsets in the group stage are a fixture of every World Cup.
What they must execute
Scotland will look to stay compact and frustrate opponents, limiting space and hitting on the break. Set-piece proficiency — both attacking and defending — becomes critical when open-play chances are limited by design.
Controversial take
The model's assessment of Scotland broadly aligns with their FIFA ranking — no major disagreement between the two systems for this squad.
Key numbers
How they play
Style vs the 48-team field
Low block · style profile from 6 recent matches
What to watch: a quick, few-touch route to attack.
Percentiles position Scotland against the 48-team field — higher means more of that trait, not better or worse. Press is inverted (lower PPDA = higher press); width uses crossing rate as a proxy; tempo is open-play passes per minute of possession. Descriptive style analytics; does not feed the published probabilities.
Group C finish · Scotland
Monte Carlo, 50,000 simsTop two advance to the round of 32; best 8 of 12 third-placed teams also qualify.
- 9.2%1st (group winner)Advances to R32
- 27.5%2nd (runner-up)Advances to R32
- 48.9%3rdAdvances only if among the best 8 of 12 third-placed teams
- 14.4%4thEliminated
Stage progression · Scotland
, 50,000 sims- 71.5%AdvAdvance from group
- 24.8%R16Round of 16
- 9.3%QFQuarter-final
- 2.7%SFSemi-final
- 0.7%FFinal
- 0.2%WinWin the tournament
Likely knockout path · Scotland
Monte Carlo, 10,000 simsL'effectif
Predicted squad
Model-predicted · snapshot 2026-05-28No jersey numbers assigned in the underlying source. The 26 below are picked by the model from the team's recent call-up pool.
★ likely first sub badge on the top-3 by first-sub score within each position group, plus a late-game impact rating where club per-90 stats are available.
▸How to read this squad— 4 columns explained
- Pos
- Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
- Caps
- Senior international appearances. Used by the model as a recency-weighted signal of how often the manager calls the player up.
- Stat
- Position-aware stat: career international goals for forwards; career international assists for midfielders (Transfermarkt); latest available Big-5 club season's total tackles for defenders (FBref); latest available Big-5 club season's save percentage for goalkeepers (FBref). Em-dash when no data is joined — most often for defenders and keepers at non-Big-5 clubs.
- Rating
- Composite rating (Model #4) — combines recent caps + goals, recent club xG and xAG per 90, position-relative quality, and call-up priors. Higher = the model thinks the player is more likely to start. Typically 0.9 (depth) to 2.5 (elite).
Selection driver — coloured chips show which input dominates a player's selection score. Caps-driven = selected mainly on international experience. Rating-driven = selected mainly on club performance quality. Jersey-boosted = jersey number from a recent squad snapshot lifted their score. Goals-driven = international goal record was the decisive factor. No chip when the score is a balanced blend.
Squad cohesion
Projected XI · club overlap
Low coverage: 6/11 of the projected XI have club-minutes rows in our ratings table. Numbers below are structurally suppressed and should be read alongside the resolved count, not in isolation.
- Pairwise club minutes
- 0.00%
- Share of the 55-pair × 3000-minute ceiling. Higher = more of the XI plays together at club level.
- Club concentration
- 0.167
- How concentrated the XI is across clubs. 0.091 = 11 different clubs · 1.000 = all the same club.
- Top-3 clubs share
- 50%
- 3 of 6 play for the three most common clubs in the XI.
Top clubs in projected XI
- Arsenal1
- Everton1
- Napoli1
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Squad depth
Projected XI · replaceability
Most irreplaceable starters
- Scott McTominayCentral midfieldLikely cover: Lewis Ferguson · 0.34Bologna0.49gap to repl.
- John McGinnCentral midfieldLikely cover: Lewis Ferguson · 0.34Bologna0.43gap to repl.
- Ryan ChristieCentral midfieldLikely cover: Lewis Ferguson · 0.34Bologna0.24gap to repl.
Gap to repl. = how far this nation's rating at the position falls from the starter to his likely in-squad replacement (named above). Larger = harder to replace.
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Calendrier du groupe
Group-stage schedule
Confrontations directes
Histoires à suivre
Storylines
Updated 14 days ago43 at kickoff with 83 caps — last World Cup for the #1.
4 of 25 predicted-squad players play their club football for Rangers — a single-club spine on the international side.
Converted only 3 of 5 career penalties (60%) — a wasteful record from the spot in knockouts.
First World Cup as head coach, appointed 2019.
Forme et palmarès
Statistical profile
Low BlockAttack
Defence
GK: Angus Gunn
Set pieces
Style
Squad
Workload class: light
Attack and defence ratings from the model; style metrics from recent international matches; penalty rates via Bayesian estimation; goalkeeper rating from shot-prevention data. Rank is out of 48 tournament teams.
Where goals come from
Phase of play · scored & conceded
- Open play
- Set piece
- Counter
- Penalty
Share of goals by how the chance began, across 6 matches (Euro2020,Euro2024). Shoot-out kicks are excluded. Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Group-stage matchups
Probabilities from the calibrated ensemble model. xG from the Dixon–Coles fit. See each fixture page for full analysis.
Rating & probability history
10 snapshots · 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-10Scotland trajectory: 10 snapshots between 2026-05-22 and 2026-06-10 (19 days). Elo moved from 1767.0 to 1767.0 (0). Tournament-winner probability moved from <0.1% to 0.2% (+0.1pp).
Each point is one model build. The shaded band is the bootstrap 90% credible interval around the tournament-winner probability.
Recent form (10 matches)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | NIvory Coast | 0–1 | L | Friendly |
| 2026-03-28 | HJapan | 0–1 | L | Friendly |
| 2025-11-18 | HDenmark | 4–2 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-11-15 | AGreece | 2–3 | L | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-10-12 | HBelarus | 2–1 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-10-09 | HGreece | 3–1 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-09-08 | NBelarus | 2–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-09-05 | ADenmark | 0–0 | D | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-06-09 | ALiechtenstein | 4–0 | W | Friendly |
| 2025-06-06 | HIceland | 1–3 | L | Friendly |
martj42 international results (CC0) · last 10 matches · ~2 years.
Head-to-head vs group opponents
| Opponent | Meetings | W-D-L | Last meeting |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 10 | 0-2-8 | 2011 — Loss (0–2) · Friendly |
| Morocco | 1 | 0-0-1 | 1998 — Loss (0–3) · FIFA World Cup |
| Haiti | 0 | — | No prior meetings |
All meetings via the martj42 international results dataset.
Major tournaments — most recent appearance
| Tournament | Year | Finish | W-D-L | Since then |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UEFA Euro | 2024 | Group stage | 0-1-2 |
|
| FIFA World Cup | 1998 | Group stage | 0-1-2 |
|
Source: FIFA archives. Penalty outcomes resolved to W/L.
Most similar past team-tournaments
Closest comparable teams from past major tournaments (1990-2024), by squad strength, group draw, and recent form. Shown for context, not a prediction.
Russia · World Cup 2002
Exited at the group stage
Comparable pre-tournament strength (Elo 1787) and group draw.
Poland · Euro 2008
Exited at the group stage
Austria · Euro 2021
Exited at the round of 16