Forecast vs result · Round of 32 · Match 10

Belgium vs Senegal

2026-07-01

The recap publishes at full time. Once this match finishes, this page shows how the frozen pre-match forecast below scored against the realised outcome: Brier score, log loss, and final xG vs predicted xG. Until then, follow it live on the live tracker.

Pre-match forecast

Belgium win
57.6%
Draw
24.9%
Senegal win
17.4%
Belgium
1.43
expected
goals
Senegal
0.91

Video analysis: player performance

Per-player ratings and event breakdowns from official highlights analysis. Tap a player to see their full match timeline.

Belgium
8
Thibaut Courtois7'–87'

Made multiple critical saves, keeping Belgium in contention despite conceding two goals.

3saves
▼

Match timeline

7'Belgium goalkeeper #1 makes a crucial save from a close-range shot by Senegal #18.
84'Belgium goalkeeper #1 makes a save from a shot inside the box.
87'Belgium goalkeeper #1 makes another save from a subsequent shot.
8
Romelu Lukaku61'–61'

Scored a crucial header that sparked Belgium's comeback from a two-goal deficit.

1goals
▼

Match timeline

61'Belgium #9 scores with a header, initiating their comeback.
8
Dodi Lukébakio

Delivered a crucial and accurate cross for Belgium's first goal, initiating the comeback.

Senegal
8
Ismaïla Sarr

Scored Senegal's second goal with excellent pace and finishing, and created an early chance.

7
Habib Diallo

Scored the opening goal for Senegal with a well-placed finish.

7
Sadio Mané

Scored an impressive individual goal, showcasing his dribbling and finishing skills.

3
El Hadji Malick Diouf90'–90'

Was involved in the incident that led to the decisive penalty conceded by Senegal.

1fouls
▼

Match timeline

90'El Hadji Malick Diouf involved in incident leading to Belgium's penalty.

Match observations

  • The match was a thrilling encounter, with Senegal initially taking a commanding two-goal lead.
  • Belgium displayed remarkable resilience, fighting back to equalize with two goals in the second half.
  • The game's outcome was ultimately decided by a late penalty awarded to Belgium.
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How to read this. A single match's Brier and log-loss are noisy. What matters is how the forecast calibrates across many matches. This per-fixture recap is one row of the aggregate calibration scoreboard at /docs/calibration/. The pre-match probability shown here is the one frozen before kickoff; it was never re-priced during play.