Forecast vs result · Round of 32 · Match 9

United States vs Bosnia and Herzegovina

2026-07-02

The recap publishes at full time. Once this match finishes, this page shows how the frozen pre-match forecast below scored against the realised outcome: Brier score, log loss, and final xG vs predicted xG. Until then, follow it live on the live tracker.

Pre-match forecast

United States win
55.3%
Draw
27.1%
Bosnia and Herzegovina win
17.6%
United States
1.44
expected
goals
Bosnia and Herzegovina
0.79

Video analysis: player performance

Per-player ratings and event breakdowns from official highlights analysis. Tap a player to see their full match timeline.

United States
7
Sergiño Dest

Showed good attacking intent from his defensive position, nearly scoring with a header.

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Match timeline

4
Folarin Balogun13'–54'

Scored a goal but was sent off with a red card, significantly impacting his team's numerical advantage.

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Match timeline

13'Balogun scores, but the goal is disallowed for offside.
32'Balogun scores for USA.
54'Balogun receives a red card.
Bosnia and Herzegovina
8
Friz

Made several crucial saves, including a close-range stop and punching away dangerous corners, keeping his team in the game.

5
Amar Memić140'–140'

Registered one of his team's few attacking attempts, though his low shot went wide.

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Match timeline

140'Memic's low shot goes wide of the goal.

Match observations

  • The match saw the United States of America create numerous attacking opportunities, with two goals disallowed for offside before their first legitimate strike.
  • Bosnia and Herzegovina struggled to establish a consistent attacking rhythm, relying mostly on defensive solidity and occasional long-range efforts.
  • A red card for a USA player altered the dynamic, yet the home side managed to extend their lead from a set piece.

How to read this. A single match's Brier and log-loss are noisy. What matters is how the forecast calibrates across many matches. This per-fixture recap is one row of the aggregate calibration scoreboard at /docs/calibration/. The pre-match probability shown here is the one frozen before kickoff; it was never re-priced during play.