Round of 16 · Match 3
BrazilvsNorway
2026-07-05·16:00 local·MetLife Stadium · New York/New JerseyPredictions finalised
Match signals
Factors that favour each side, from statistical models to group stage form and match conditions. Longer bars = stronger advantage.
Brazil are dominant at 65% vs Norway's 12%. Quality, form, and model estimates all point the same way. An upset here would be a major story.
📊What the Models Say
Rates teams by a single strength number updated after every match. Simpler but fast to react. It rates Brazil at 44% to win vs Norway at 34%.
Simulates the goal-scoring process using attack and defence strength. The heaviest-weighted model. It rates Brazil at 63% to win vs Norway at 14%.
Groups teams by confederation to share information. Helps for teams with fewer matches. It rates Brazil at 59% to win vs Norway at 17%.
The published probability after calibration and adjustments. This is what the model says. It rates Brazil at 65% to win vs Norway at 12%.
All 3 models agree: Brazil is favoured. When models agree, the signal is stronger.
⚽Tournament Form
Norway collected 12 points (4W 0D 2L) vs Brazil's 10 (3W 1D 1L). A stronger tournament record.
Similar attacking output: Brazil 2.0 goals/match, Norway 2.17.
Brazil conceded just 0.8 goals/match vs Norway's 1.83. Tighter at the back.
Brazil's goal difference of +6 is better than Norway's +2. They outperformed opponents by more.
📈Momentum
Norway's rating rose +30.1 during the tournament while Brazil's moved -4.9. The tournament has been kinder to Norway.
Both squads' form ratings moved similarly during the tournament.
🏆Team Quality
Brazil is rated 1984 vs Norway's 1912 (gap: 72). That's a noticeable gap in historical team strength.
The model expects Brazil to create 1.95 expected goals vs Norway's 0.81. More and better chances projected.
Norway's top 3 starters are harder to replace (avg VORP 0.63) than Brazil's (0.51). More star power in key positions.
Similar levels of squad familiarity from club football.
🌍Match Conditions
Norway traveled 5,770km vs Brazil's 6,533km. A shorter journey means less fatigue.
Brazil face a 1h timezone shift vs Norway's 6h. Less jet lag disruption.
17 signals across 5 categories. Signal strength reflects how large the gap is between the two teams on each factor. Signals are descriptive, not prescriptive.
Match-outcome probability
Standard Pass for probabilitiesStandard Pass
The model's full forecast for this match
The model rates 2–0 as the most likely scoreline (12.1%). The full distribution, scorer probabilities, and tactical breakdown are inside.
Match-outcome probabilities, the most likely scorelines, scorer probabilities, and the in-match paths. The Standard Pass unlocks them for this match and all 104.
Scoreline distribution
Half-time / full-time
Four models compared
Most likely scorers
Standard Pass
See exactly how Brazil v Norway plays out
The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.
Every forecast graded against the real result, scored on 987 matches since 2014. See the scorecard.
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Latest news & match context
- Brazil’s World Cup Collapse Revives Debate Over Faith and Soccer · Religion Unplugged · 14 Jul
- Erling Haaland brings $750 stuffed raccoon back to Norway after World Cup exit · The Independent — Football · 14 Jul
- Stage:
- Round of 16 · Match 3
- Date:
- 5 Jul
- Venue:
- MetLife Stadium, New York/New Jersey
Ranked by likely importance. None of these feed the forecast: the probabilities rest on team strength, venue conditions and the style matchup.
- 1.Elimination stakes: A one-off elimination tie. Motivation, risk appetite and game management under tournament pressure are not model inputs; the forecast rests on team strength and the style matchup.
- 2.Rest differential: Brazil have had 6 days since their previous match versus 5 for Norway. Rest and recovery are not model inputs.
Both squads look close to full strength going into this match.