Forecast vs result · Group G · Matchday 3

Belgium vs New Zealand

2026-06-26

The recap publishes at full time. Once this match finishes, this page shows how the frozen pre-match forecast below scored against the realised outcome: Brier score, log loss, and final xG vs predicted xG. Until then, follow it live on the live tracker.

Pre-match forecast

Belgium win
83.1%
Draw
15.5%
New Zealand win
1.4%
Belgium
2.52
expected
goals
New Zealand
0.43

Video analysis: player performance

Per-player ratings and event breakdowns from official highlights analysis. Tap a player to see their full match timeline.

Belgium
9
Leandro Trossard

Trossard was clinical in front of goal, scoring two crucial goals that set Belgium on their way to victory.

9
Kevin De Bruyne

De Bruyne orchestrated Belgium's attack with a goal and a key assist, demonstrating his exceptional vision and passing.

9
Romelu Lukaku

Lukaku made an immediate and decisive impact, scoring two goals with clinical finishing to further extend Belgium's lead.

7
Thibaut Courtois

Courtois made vital saves and confidently handled aerial threats, contributing to Belgium's defensive solidity despite the scoreline.

6
Maxim De Cuyper

De Cuyper contributed to the attack with a strong shot on goal, showing offensive intent.

New Zealand
7
Elijah Just

Just provided New Zealand's only goal, showing good positioning to capitalize on a corner.

5
Chris Wood

Wood had a shot blocked, but otherwise struggled to make a significant impact in a difficult match for his team.

Match observations

  • The match began with early pressure from Belgium, almost resulting in a goal that was disallowed by goal-line technology.
  • Belgium quickly established dominance, scoring two goals through Trossard, showcasing their attacking prowess.
  • New Zealand managed to pull one goal back from a corner, but Belgium responded swiftly with two more goals from Lukaku.

How to read this. A single match's Brier and log-loss are noisy. What matters is how the forecast calibrates across many matches. This per-fixture recap is one row of the aggregate calibration scoreboard at /docs/calibration/. The pre-match probability shown here is the one frozen before kickoff; it was never re-priced during play.