Group L · Matchday 2

Full-timeFT
England
0:0
Ghana

The day's strongest pairing by combined FIFA ranking is free for everyone: full forecast and full live tracker. Every other match needs a Standard Pass. See the Pass

Live descriptive stats

EnglandGhana
Expected goals (xG) — predicted vs actual
predictedactualdiff
England1.930.00−1.93
Ghana0.420.00−0.42

Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.

Shots
19
2
Shots on target
3
1
Possession (%)
79%
21%
Corners
9
2
Fouls
14
24
Yellow cards
1
1
Red cards
0
0

Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.

Analysis

How it plays out

England's balanced setup will need to hold shape against Ghana's direct transition game. The risk for England: getting caught between attacking and defending. Ghana's aggressive press (PPDA 20.2) against England's deeper build-up (PPDA 23.5) creates a clear territory question: can Ghana force errors high up, or will England play through the press and find space behind it?

What decides it

Ghana will concede possession willingly and attack in transition. Their defensive block needs to hold without fouling in dangerous areas. The scoring threat is evenly split: Harry Kane (12.5%) and Jordan Ayew (10.2%).

Off the pitch

No major off-pitch asymmetries. This one is decided by the football.

The angle

The model gives Ghana just 7.8% to win. Every World Cup produces group-stage upsets; the question is whether this fixture is one of them.

Latest news & match context

Team news
Match conditions
Stage:
Group L · Matchday 2
Date:
23 Jun
Beyond the model

Ranked by likely importance. None of these feed the forecast: the probabilities rest on team strength, venue conditions and the style matchup.

  1. 1.Squad availability: 1 carrying a fitness doubt across the two squads. The forecast does not adjust for who is missing: its lineup channel currently contributes zero, so this is context the probabilities do not include.
Availability

England

England: 1 carrying a fitness doubt.

  • DoubtTino Livramento (defender) is carrying Knee injury — a depth-level fitness watch item.

Ghana

Ghana come in at close to full strength.

What it means

Both projected XIs look intact; the fitness concerns are at squad-depth level rather than among first-choice starters.

Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.

LiveDescriptive stats and the delayed live win probability · updates every ~30 seconds

Chance-creation momentum

rolling 10-minute xG · delayed
England (above the line)Ghana (below)
15'30'HT60'75'

Expected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, England minus Ghana: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.

Live commentary & events

EnglandGhana
  • Yellow cardDeclan Rice· FoulDeclan Rice is booked — Foul.41'
  • 60'Yellow cardIñaki Williams· FoulIñaki Williams is booked — Foul.
  • SubstitutionAnthony Gordon· Bukayo SakaEngland change: Bukayo Saka.65'
  • SubstitutionDjed Spence· Nico O'ReillyEngland change: Nico O'Reilly.66'
  • 66'SubstitutionIñaki Williams· Abdul Fatawu IssahakuGhana change: Abdul Fatawu Issahaku.
  • 67'SubstitutionJordan Ayew· Prince Kwabena AduGhana change: Prince Kwabena Adu.
  • SubstitutionJude Bellingham· Morgan RogersEngland change: Morgan Rogers.73'
  • SubstitutionElliot Anderson· Eberechi EzeEngland change: Eberechi Eze.74'
  • SubstitutionNoni Madueke· Marcus RashfordEngland change: Marcus Rashford.83'
  • 87'SubstitutionMarvin Senaya· Kojo Peprah OppongGhana change: Kojo Peprah Oppong.
  • 95'SubstitutionPrince Kwabena Adu· Abdul Rahman BabaGhana change: Abdul Rahman Baba.

Player involvement

England

Declan Rice41' Yellow card

Ghana

Iñaki Williams60' Yellow card · 66' On
Pre-match modelFrozen before kickoff

Pre-match forecast

England win
77.0%
Draw
20.3%
Ghana win
2.8%
England
1.93
expected
goals
Ghana
0.42

The published probability for this fixture is fixed at lineup confirmation (≈1 hour before kickoff) and never updates afterwards. It is the number the post-match recap holds accountable. The live win probability in the Live section is a separate, delayed, descriptive estimate; it does not replace the published forecast.

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–0
    18.0%
  • 2–0
    17.8%
  • 3–0
    11.5%
  • 0–0
    10.0%
  • 1–1
    8.2%

From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.

How the live probability works. The published pre-match forecast is frozen at the T-1h lineup-confirmation pass and never changes after kickoff; the post-match recap scores that frozen number against the result. The live win probability shown during play is the same model re-read against the current score and time remaining. It refreshes about once a minute, is always delayed, and is a descriptive research figure, not a betting product or a price of any kind. See /docs/methodology/ for the full framing.