Group L · Matchday 2
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Live descriptive stats
Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.
Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.
Analysis
How it plays out
England's balanced setup will need to hold shape against Ghana's direct transition game. The risk for England: getting caught between attacking and defending. Ghana's aggressive press (PPDA 20.2) against England's deeper build-up (PPDA 23.5) creates a clear territory question: can Ghana force errors high up, or will England play through the press and find space behind it?
What decides it
Ghana will concede possession willingly and attack in transition. Their defensive block needs to hold without fouling in dangerous areas. The scoring threat is evenly split: Harry Kane (12.5%) and Jordan Ayew (10.2%).
Off the pitch
No major off-pitch asymmetries. This one is decided by the football.
The angle
The model gives Ghana just 7.8% to win. Every World Cup produces group-stage upsets; the question is whether this fixture is one of them.
Latest news & match context
- 'Cowardly' Thomas Tuchel blasted for 'coaching catastrophe' in England's World Cup capitulation: Football legends lead outrage at Three Lions' manager's tactics after heartbreaking exit to Argentina · Daily Mail — Football · 16 Jul
- Jude Bellingham slaps Argentina star after England exit World Cup · The Independent — Football · 16 Jul
- World Cup 2026: Tuchel latest after England exit; Argentina players criticised for banner – live · The Guardian — Football · 16 Jul
- Gary Lineker jokes England boss Thomas Tuchel is a ‘German spy’ following World Cup defeat · The Independent — Football · 16 Jul
- 'It's the middle of the goal!': Jude Bellingham left fuming with Jordan Pickford for Argentina's equaliser in World Cup nightmare - as Lionel Messi discovers England star's penalty 'cheat sheet' · Daily Mail — Football · 16 Jul
- Stage:
- Group L · Matchday 2
- Date:
- 23 Jun
Ranked by likely importance. None of these feed the forecast: the probabilities rest on team strength, venue conditions and the style matchup.
- 1.Squad availability: 1 carrying a fitness doubt across the two squads. The forecast does not adjust for who is missing: its lineup channel currently contributes zero, so this is context the probabilities do not include.
England
England: 1 carrying a fitness doubt.
- DoubtTino Livramento (defender) is carrying Knee injury — a depth-level fitness watch item.
Ghana
Ghana come in at close to full strength.
Both projected XIs look intact; the fitness concerns are at squad-depth level rather than among first-choice starters.
Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.
Chance-creation momentum
rolling 10-minute xG · delayedExpected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, England minus Ghana: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.
Live commentary & events
- Yellow cardDeclan Rice· FoulDeclan Rice is booked — Foul.41'
- 60'Yellow cardIñaki Williams· FoulIñaki Williams is booked — Foul.
- SubstitutionAnthony Gordon· Bukayo SakaEngland change: Bukayo Saka.65'
- SubstitutionDjed Spence· Nico O'ReillyEngland change: Nico O'Reilly.66'
- 66'SubstitutionIñaki Williams· Abdul Fatawu IssahakuGhana change: Abdul Fatawu Issahaku.
- 67'SubstitutionJordan Ayew· Prince Kwabena AduGhana change: Prince Kwabena Adu.
- SubstitutionJude Bellingham· Morgan RogersEngland change: Morgan Rogers.73'
- SubstitutionElliot Anderson· Eberechi EzeEngland change: Eberechi Eze.74'
- SubstitutionNoni Madueke· Marcus RashfordEngland change: Marcus Rashford.83'
- 87'SubstitutionMarvin Senaya· Kojo Peprah OppongGhana change: Kojo Peprah Oppong.
- 95'SubstitutionPrince Kwabena Adu· Abdul Rahman BabaGhana change: Abdul Rahman Baba.
Player involvement
England
Ghana
Pre-match forecast
goals
Die veröffentlichte Wahrscheinlichkeit für dieses Spiel wird bei der Aufstellungsbestätigung (≈1 Stunde vor Anpfiff) festgeschrieben und ändert sich danach nicht mehr. An dieser Zahl wird der Rückblick nach Abpfiff gemessen. Die Live-Siegwahrscheinlichkeit im Live-Bereich ist eine separate, verzögerte, beschreibende Schätzung; sie ersetzt die veröffentlichte Prognose nicht.
Most likely scorelines
- 1–018.0%
- 2–017.8%
- 3–011.5%
- 0–010.0%
- 1–18.2%
From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.