Group J · Matchday 1

Full-timeFT
Argentina
3:0
Algeria

The day's strongest pairing by combined FIFA ranking is free for everyone: full forecast and full live tracker. Every other match needs a Standard Pass. See the Pass

Live descriptive stats

ArgentinaAlgeria
Expected goals (xG) — predicted vs actual
predictedactualdiff
Argentina1.801.23−0.57
Algeria0.630.31−0.32

Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.

Shots
10
7
Shots on target
6
0
Possession (%)
48%
52%
Corners
2
2
Fouls
13
8
Yellow cards
0
0
Red cards
0
0

Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.

Analysis

How it plays out

Both sides run a possession dominant system, so this becomes a test of who executes the same ideas better on the day. Algeria's aggressive press (PPDA 11.1) against Argentina's deeper build-up (PPDA 19.1) creates a clear territory question: can Algeria force errors high up, or will Argentina play through the press and find space behind it?

What decides it

Both sides run the same system (possession dominant), so execution quality separates them, not tactical asymmetry. Lionel Messi carries the marginally higher scoring probability (10.7% vs 6.5%).

Off the pitch

Lionel Scaloni (8 years in charge of Argentina) vs Vladimir Petković (2 years). That tenure gap shows up in squad familiarity and set-piece coordination.

The angle

The model gives Algeria just 12.6% to win. Every World Cup produces group-stage upsets; the question is whether this fixture is one of them.

Latest news & match context

Team news
Match conditions
Stage:
Group J · Matchday 1
Date:
16 Jun
Beyond the model

Ranked by likely importance. None of these feed the forecast: the probabilities rest on team strength, venue conditions and the style matchup.

  1. 1.Squad availability: 1 carrying a fitness doubt across the two squads, 1 of them projected starters. The forecast does not adjust for who is missing: its lineup channel currently contributes zero, so this is context the probabilities do not include.
Availability

Argentina

Argentina come in at close to full strength.

Algeria

Algeria: 1 carrying a fitness doubt.

  • DoubtAnthony Mandrea, the first-choice goalkeeper, is recovering from Shoulder injury and is a fitness watch item; if unavailable the projected XI shifts.
What it means

Availability runs in Argentina's favour here: Algeria are managing a fitness concern over Anthony Mandrea, while Argentina's projected XI looks intact.

Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.

LiveDescriptive stats and the delayed live win probability · updates every ~30 seconds

Chance-creation momentum

rolling 10-minute xG · delayed
Argentina (above the line)Algeria (below)
15'30'HT60'75'Goal, 17' · L. MessiGoal, 60' · L. MessiGoal, 76' · L. Messi

Expected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Argentina minus Algeria: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.

Live commentary & events

ArgentinaAlgeria
  • 8'VAR reviewF. ChaibiVAR review under way.
  • GoalL. Messi· R. de PaulL. Messi scores for Argentina.17'
  • SubstitutionG. Montiel· N. MolinaArgentina change: N. Molina.46'
  • SubstitutionL. Martinez· J. AlvarezArgentina change: J. Alvarez.55'
  • SubstitutionT. Almada· N. GonzalezArgentina change: N. Gonzalez.55'
  • GoalL. MessiL. Messi scores for Argentina.60'
  • 64'SubstitutionH. Boudaoui· H. AouarAlgeria change: H. Aouar.
  • 64'SubstitutionA. Gouiri· M. AmouraAlgeria change: M. Amoura.
  • 64'SubstitutionA. Hadj Moussa· R. MahrezAlgeria change: R. Mahrez.
  • GoalL. Messi· N. GonzalezL. Messi scores for Argentina.76'
  • SubstitutionL. Messi· N. PazArgentina change: N. Paz.80'
  • SubstitutionC. Romero· N. OtamendiArgentina change: N. Otamendi.80'
  • 81'SubstitutionN. Bentaleb· A. BoulbinaAlgeria change: A. Boulbina.
  • 82'SubstitutionI. Maza· R. ZerroukiAlgeria change: R. Zerrouki.

Player involvement

Argentina

L. Messi17' Goal · 60' Goal · 76' Goal · 80' On
AR. de Paul17' Assist
AN. Gonzalez55' Off · 76' Assist
Pre-match modelFrozen before kickoff

Pre-match forecast

Argentina win
69.2%
Draw
23.4%
Algeria win
7.4%
Argentina
1.80
expected
goals
Algeria
0.63

The published probability for this fixture is fixed at lineup confirmation (≈1 hour before kickoff) and never updates afterwards. It is the number the post-match recap holds accountable. The live win probability in the Live section is a separate, delayed, descriptive estimate; it does not replace the published forecast.

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–0
    15.3%
  • 2–0
    14.3%
  • 1–1
    10.6%
  • 0–0
    9.4%
  • 2–1
    9.0%

From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.

Post-match calibration

3 – 0
Argentina win

Pre-match probability vs realised outcome

  • Argentina win· realised
    69.9%
  • Draw
    22.0%
  • Algeria win
    8.1%
Brier score
0.146
Log loss
0.358
xG (final / predicted)
1.23 / 1.90 · Argentina
0.31 / 0.63 · Algeria
P(realised outcome)
69.9%

Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.

Full forecast-vs-result recap →

How the live probability works. The published pre-match forecast is frozen at the T-1h lineup-confirmation pass and never changes after kickoff; the post-match recap scores that frozen number against the result. The live win probability shown during play is the same model re-read against the current score and time remaining. It refreshes about once a minute, is always delayed, and is a descriptive research figure, not a betting product or a price of any kind. See /docs/methodology/ for the full framing.